The international break finishes with two packed days: eight UEFA Nations League games on Monday, ten more on Tuesday, and a run of big friendlies including Argentina v Benin, USA v Canada and Mexico v Chile. Below are our model's first-half goal predictions for every headline game, the matches it likes most and least, and the best club picks it has published for both days.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. Our model builds it from each team's first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap in strength between the sides. Where bookmakers price the first-half line, we blend in their view, because the market is sharp on the big games. We show both numbers so you can see where the model and the market agree — and where they don't.
As a guide: 78%+ is a strong first-half goal spot, 70–77% is solid, and anything in the low 60s is a game where a goalless first half is a real possibility.
Monday, October 5: Nations League predictions
All European games kick off at 2:45 PM ET unless noted.
| Match | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Romania v Sweden | 77% | 82% | 73% |
| Montenegro v Armenia | 75% | 81% | 71% |
| Italy v Türkiye | 74% | 73% | 75% |
| France v Belgium | 72% | 65% | 77% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina v Poland | 70% | 71% | 69% |
| Cyprus v Latvia (12:00 PM) | 67% | 69% | 66% |
| Northern Ireland v Georgia | 65% | 73% | 59% |
| Ukraine v Hungary | 65% | 64% | 65% |
Romania v Sweden — 77%
Monday's top-rated Nations League game. Romania were thrashed 6-0 in Poland on Friday, while Sweden drew 1-1 in Bosnia. The model flags this as a mismatch on current form and strength and rates it 82% on its own numbers; the bookmakers are more cautious at 73%. Even the blend sits comfortably above the international average.
Italy v Türkiye — 74%
This is a game where the model and the market agree almost exactly. Italy drew 1-1 in France on Friday after a goalless first half; Türkiye were beaten 3-0 in Belgium and trailed 1-0 at the break. Expect Italy to have the ball and Türkiye to look for space — a decent setup for an early goal.
France v Belgium — 72%
The headline fixture, and the one where our model and the market disagree most. The bookmakers price an early goal at 77%; our model alone says just 65%. France's first half against Italy on Friday ended 0-0, and big games between evenly matched sides often start carefully. Belgium arrive in form after their 3-0 win over Türkiye. If you are backing a first-half goal here, you are siding with the market rather than our numbers.
Montenegro v Armenia — 75%
Montenegro won 2-1 in Latvia on Friday; Armenia lost 2-0 in Cyprus, conceding twice before half-time. Another mismatch flag, and the model (81%) is again keener than the market (71%).
Outside Europe, Monday's highest-rated international is Bermuda v Barbados in the CONCACAF Nations League at 80% (8:00 PM ET), followed by Cuba v St. Kitts and Nevis at 77% (5:00 PM ET), where model and market agree.
Tuesday, October 6: Nations League and friendlies
| Match (ET) | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| England v Czechia 2:45 PM | 80% | 82% | 78% |
| Switzerland v North Macedonia 2:45 PM | 80% | 82% | 78% |
| Croatia v Spain 2:45 PM | 79% | 82% | 77% |
| Albania v San Marino 2:45 PM | 78% | 78% | – |
| Moldova v Slovakia 2:45 PM | 72% | 73% | 71% |
| Estonia v Iceland 2:45 PM | 70% | 69% | 71% |
| Belarus v Finland 2:45 PM | 67% | 72% | 65% |
| Kazakhstan v Faroe Islands 10:00 AM | 65% | 71% | 61% |
| Luxembourg v Bulgaria 2:45 PM | 64% | 66% | 62% |
| Scotland v Slovenia 2:45 PM | 64% | 62% | 65% |
England v Czechia — 80%
After putting four past Croatia before half-time on Saturday, England are the in-form team of the window. Czechia conceded twice in the first half in Spain on Saturday before losing 3-1. The model rates England's attack and the gap between the sides highly (82%), and the market (78%) is close behind. This is one of the strongest first-half goal spots of the break.
Croatia v Spain — 79%
Croatia need a response after the 7-0 defeat, but Spain led Czechia 2-0 at the break on Saturday and have the attacking quality to punish a side low on confidence. The model and market agree, and the mismatch flag is on.
Switzerland v North Macedonia — 80%
Switzerland were 2-1 up at half-time against Slovenia on Saturday; North Macedonia failed to score at home to Scotland. Ratings across the board point the same way.
The friendlies
Argentina v Benin (7:00 PM ET) is Tuesday's highest-rated game at 83%. Argentina were 5-0 up at half-time against Burkina Faso on Saturday, and the market makes an early goal even more likely than our model does (88% v 76%). India v Uruguay (10:00 AM ET) is rated 82% after India conceded twice before the break against Brazil. Mexico v Chile (10:30 PM ET) is 76%, and USA v Canada (8:00 PM ET) 73% — the USA beat Mexico 3-0 on Saturday, while Canada beat Peru 2-0 with both goals before half-time.
Best first-half goal plays
Where the model, the market and the matchup all agree, these are the strongest spots over the two days:
- England v Czechia (Tue) — 80%, model and market within four points, mismatch flag on.
- Croatia v Spain (Tue) — 79%, Spain's first-half form plus a wounded Croatia.
- Switzerland v North Macedonia (Tue) — 80%, the clear gap in quality.
- Romania v Sweden (Mon) — 77%, the model's favourite of Monday's European games.
Remember that a 78–80% rating still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time. These are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Colombia v Peru (Tue) — 63%, the lowest-rated game in our list. Colombia lost 1-0 at home to Paraguay on Friday after a goalless first half.
- Scotland v Slovenia (Tue) — 64%. Both the model and the market expect a tight start.
- Luxembourg v Bulgaria (Tue) — 64%.
- Northern Ireland v Georgia (Mon) — 65%, but note the split: the model says 73%, the market only 59%.
Top club picks and match winners
With Europe's top leagues paused, the model's daily Top Predictions come from the leagues still playing — South America, the English Football League Trophy and lower divisions across Europe. These are the strongest picks it has published for both days. Prices are the best available when the pick was published; always check the current price before betting.
Monday, October 5 — Top Predictions
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAT Moreno v Deportivo Metalúrgico (Argentina, 12:00 PM) | Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.44 |
| Napredak v Loznica (Serbia Prva Liga, 10:00 AM) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.38 |
| Vélez Sarsfield v Platense (Argentina, 6:00 PM) | Either team wins | 74% | 1.36 |
| Nestos Chrisoupolis v Marko (Greece Super League 2, 8:00 AM) | Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.46 |
| Yarud Mariupol v Nyva Ternopil (Ukraine Persha Liga, 8:30 AM) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.42 |
| Estudiantes LP v Gimnasia M. (Argentina, 6:00 PM) | Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.44 |
| Banfield v Rosario Central (Argentina, 8:15 PM) | Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 |
Tuesday, October 6 — Top Predictions
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby v Burton Albion (EFL Trophy, 2:00 PM) | Grimsby or draw | 77% | 1.47 |
| Olimpia v Nacional Asunción (Paraguay, 6:15 PM) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.39 |
| Goiás v Athletic Club (Brazil Serie B, 7:30 PM) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.43 |
| Rio Ave U23 v Moreirense U23 (Portugal, 10:00 AM) | Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.44 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
Our public record shows the top tiers are where the model is strongest: top-tier Match Winner and team-goal picks have won more than 80% of the time since we started tracking them. Here are the top-tier picks for both days:
- Mon: TSC Bačka Topola to beat Grafičar (Serbia Prva Liga, 12:00 PM) — top-tier winner.
- Mon: Vélez Sarsfield to score v Platense (Argentina, 6:00 PM) — model 83%.
- Tue: Deportivo Santani to beat Guaireña (Paraguay, 6:30 PM) — top-tier winner.
- Tue: Sportivo Ameliano to score v Rubio Ñu (Paraguay, 4:00 PM) — model 83%.
- Tue: Port Vale, Stevenage, Accrington Stanley and Fleetwood Town to score (EFL Trophy, 2:00 PM) — all top-tier, 76–78%.
- Tue: Wingate & Finchley to score v Bedford Town (FA Cup, 2:45 PM) — top-tier, 78%.
For the background to this week's games, read our October international break review. And if a game is still 0-0 at 20 minutes, here's how we decide whether it's still a first-half goal bet.
Ratings generated by The Soccer Expert model on October 5, 2026 and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.