The October international break is in full swing. Club football in Europe's top leagues is on pause, and the UEFA Nations League has taken centre stage with four straight days of action from Thursday to Sunday, before a final double-header on Monday and Tuesday. In this piece we run through every Nations League result so far, pick out the biggest talking points, and look at what the numbers say about first-half goals in international football — including a surprising finding from our own database of more than 35,000 matches.
Every Nations League result so far
Here is every senior UEFA Nations League game played between Thursday, October 1 and Sunday, October 4, with the half-time score in brackets. A first-half goal came in 24 of the 34 games.
Thursday, October 1
| Match | Full time | Half time |
|---|---|---|
| Germany v Serbia | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Greece v Netherlands | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Denmark v Portugal | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Wales v Norway | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Republic of Ireland v Austria | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Israel v Kosovo | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Malta v Gibraltar | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Azerbaijan v Liechtenstein | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Friday, October 2
| Match | Full time | Half time |
|---|---|---|
| France v Italy | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Belgium v Türkiye | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| Poland v Romania | 6-0 | 1-0 |
| Ukraine v Northern Ireland | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Hungary v Georgia | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina v Sweden | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Faroe Islands v Slovakia | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Cyprus v Armenia | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Latvia v Montenegro | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Kazakhstan v Moldova | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Saturday, October 3
| Match | Full time | Half time |
|---|---|---|
| Croatia v England | 0-7 | 0-4 |
| Spain v Czechia | 3-1 | 2-0 |
| Switzerland v Slovenia | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| North Macedonia v Scotland | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Iceland v Bulgaria | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| Finland v Albania | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Belarus v San Marino | 4-0 | 0-0 |
| Estonia v Luxembourg | 1-0 | 1-0 |
Sunday, October 4
| Match | Full time | Half time |
|---|---|---|
| Portugal v Norway | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Netherlands v Serbia | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Greece v Germany | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Wales v Denmark | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Republic of Ireland v Israel | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Kosovo v Austria | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Azerbaijan v Lithuania | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Malta v Andorra | 1-0 | 0-0 |
The big talking points
England run riot in Zagreb
The result of the break so far came on Saturday: Croatia 0-7 England, with England four goals up by half-time. It was a statement performance from Thomas Tuchel's side, and the coverage has matched it. The Guardian argued it is time to stop doubting Tuchel, with Euro 2028 the target, while BBC Sport wrote that Jude Bellingham has unlocked a new level. On the other side, Luka Modrić told BBC Sport he was "ashamed" of a "catastrophic night" for Croatia. The Guardian's Barney Ronay also praised Bellingham but said UEFA sent the wrong message on racism.
England host Czechia on Tuesday, while Croatia must regroup quickly for a visit from Spain, who beat Czechia 3-1 on Saturday.
Haaland limps off as Portugal edge Norway
Portugal beat Norway 2-1 on Sunday, having already won 4-2 in Denmark on Thursday — six points and six goals from two away-and-home games. The worry for Norway, and for Manchester City, is that Erling Haaland limped off during the defeat, according to The Guardian's Nations League roundup. Norway had also lost 2-1 in Wales on Thursday.
There is plenty of Portugal talk off the pitch too. BBC Sport reports that the Portugal boss says the door is open for a Cristiano Ronaldo return, and Sky Sports' newspaper review says Ronaldo will make a Portugal return.
Tension in Dublin
The Republic of Ireland drew 1-1 with Israel on Sunday in what The Guardian described as a bad-tempered draw. Ireland manager Heimir Hallgrímsson called on UEFA to keep the two sides apart in future, and told BBC Sport that Israel "tried to intimidate" his players amid a spitting row, adding that "no other team should go through this". Ireland have now drawn both games this window, after letting a 2-0 half-time lead slip against Austria on Thursday.
Wales: from Norway high to Denmark low
Wales came from behind to beat ten-man Norway 2-1 on Thursday, but Sunday ended in a 1-0 home defeat to Denmark. Sky Sports reports that a Rasmus Højlund penalty decided it after an error from goalkeeper Danny Ward, which The Guardian also covered in its match report. Afterwards, Craig Bellamy criticised the new schedule, according to BBC Sport.
A new era for Scotland
Scotland won 2-0 in North Macedonia on Saturday. BBC Sport called it a good night for a new Scotland era, and reported that Bowie is seizing his Scotland chance after World Cup disappointment. Slovenia visit on Tuesday.
Elsewhere
Poland's 6-0 thrashing of Romania was the biggest margin of the week outside Zagreb. Northern Ireland won 3-0 in Ukraine, Belgium beat Türkiye 3-0, and France and Italy drew 1-1 in Paris. Away from Europe, the friendlies brought USA 3-0 Mexico, Argentina 7-0 Burkina Faso, Brazil's 4-0 win in India and Canada's 2-0 win over Peru.
What the data says about first-half goals
There is a long-standing idea that international football is cagey — that national teams, with little time together, start slowly and lean on structure. Our database says otherwise.
Across 4,595 international and friendly fixtures in our match history, 74.0% produced a goal before half-time, against 73.1% across 31,262 club league matches. Goals per game were almost identical too: 3.10 for internationals and friendlies against 3.08 for club football.
Why? The answer is mismatches. International football throws up far bigger gaps in quality than most club leagues. This week alone we saw Indonesia 9-2 Bangladesh, Argentina 7-0 Burkina Faso and Croatia 0-7 England. When a strong side meets a weak one, the early goal usually comes — the same standings-gap effect our model uses for club football.
The senior Nations League games this week ran slightly below that average, at 70.6% (24 of 34). That fits the pattern: the Nations League groups pair teams of similar strength, so there are fewer of the lopsided games that drive the international average up.
The second-game slowdown
The most interesting pattern this week came from the teams that played on both Thursday and Sunday. Eight Nations League games were played on each day, and 14 of the 16 nations involved played on both:
Eight games is a small sample, so we would not build a betting system on it alone. But it makes sense: tired legs, rotated line-ups and coaches protecting a result after a good first game. Greece's 0-0 with Germany, after a 2-2 with the Netherlands, is a good example. When you look at the second game of a double-header, it is worth asking whether the first game's intensity will be repeated.
Still to come on Monday and Tuesday
The window closes with two more busy days. On Monday, October 5 the headline games are France v Belgium, Italy v Türkiye and Romania v Sweden, all at 2:45 PM ET. On Tuesday, October 6 it is England v Czechia, Croatia v Spain and Scotland v Slovenia, plus friendlies including Argentina v Benin and USA v Canada.
We have run every one of those games through the model. See our first-half goal predictions for Monday and Tuesday for the full ratings — including the two games the model rates highest for an early goal, and the two it rates lowest.
Results and statistics from The Soccer Expert database (API-Football data). News items link to the original reporting at BBC Sport, Sky Sports and The Guardian.