369 matches, one model. These are our first-half goal ratings and best picks for Friday, November 6 — with the reasoning behind the strongest spots.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners FC 3:40 AM | A-League | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| Motor Lublin v Wisla Plock 12:00 PM | Ekstraklasa | 71% | 67% | 72% |
| Gaziantep FK v Kasımpaşa 12:00 PM | Süper Lig | 70% | 77% | 69% |
| Eintracht Braunschweig v Energie Cottbus 12:30 PM | 2. Bundesliga | 76% | 72% | 77% |
| Dynamo Dresden v SpVgg Greuther Furth 12:30 PM | 2. Bundesliga | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| Barracas Central v Racing Club 1:00 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 63% | 65% | 62% |
| Hammarby FF v IF Elfsborg 1:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 71% | 63% | 73% |
| Silkeborg v Lyngby 1:00 PM | Superliga | 73% | 71% | 73% |
| Rapid Vienna v Wolfsberger AC 1:30 PM | Bundesliga | 80% | 83% | 79% |
| Willem II v PEC Zwolle 2:00 PM | Eredivisie | 75% | 77% | 75% |
| Boulogne v Annecy 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 63% | 63% | 62% |
| Dijon v RED Star FC 93 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Dunkerque v Guingamp 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 71% | 67% | 72% |
| Grenoble v Reims 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 71% | 78% | 69% |
| Montpellier v Metz 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 72% | 74% | 71% |
| Nancy v Sochaux 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 68% | 67% | 69% |
| Wisla Krakow v Cracovia Krakow 2:30 PM | Ekstraklasa | 70% | 62% | 72% |
| Castellón v Eibar 2:30 PM | Segunda División | 73% | 72% | 73% |
| Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach 2:30 PM | Bundesliga | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Ascoli v Palermo 2:30 PM | Serie B | 72% | 70% | 72% |
| Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United 2:30 PM | FA Cup | 72% | 68% | 73% |
| Venezia v Udinese 2:45 PM | Serie A | 72% | 76% | 71% |
| Toulouse v Strasbourg 2:45 PM | Ligue 1 | 72% | 69% | 73% |
| Standard Liege v SK Beveren 2:45 PM | Jupiler Pro League | 71% | 68% | 72% |
| Oxford City v Leicester 2:45 PM | FA Cup | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| Everton v Coventry 3:00 PM | Premier League | 70% | 63% | 72% |
| Derby v Bolton 3:00 PM | Championship | 73% | 76% | 72% |
| Sevilla v Alaves 3:00 PM | La Liga | 65% | 66% | 65% |
| Famalicao v Arouca 3:45 PM | Primeira Liga | 68% | 65% | 69% |
| Independiente v Deportivo Riestra 5:15 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 60% | 57% | 61% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Rapid Vienna v Wolfsberger AC — 80%
Bundesliga · 1:30 PM ET. In recent matches, Rapid Vienna have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Wolfsberger AC 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Rapid Vienna sit 1st and Wolfsberger AC 12th in a 12-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (83%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Eintracht Braunschweig v Energie Cottbus — 76%
2. Bundesliga · 12:30 PM ET. In recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Energie Cottbus 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Eintracht Braunschweig sit 15th and Energie Cottbus 14th in a 18-team table. Our model (72%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
Willem II v PEC Zwolle — 75%
Eredivisie · 2:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Willem II have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, PEC Zwolle 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Willem II sit 18th and PEC Zwolle 14th in a 18-team table. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
Oxford City v Leicester — 75%
FA Cup · 2:45 PM ET. Oxford City games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Leicester games in 5 of 5. Our model (74%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners FC — 74%
A-League · 3:40 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Sydney FC's last 5 games and 3 of Central Coast Mariners FC's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Sydney FC sit 5th and Central Coast Mariners FC 10th in a 12-team table. Our model (75%) and the bookmakers (73%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- San Lorenzo v Platense (Liga Profesional Argentina, 5:15 PM ET) — 59%. In recent matches, San Lorenzo have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Platense 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. San Lorenzo sit 9th and Platense 11th in a 15-team table. Our model (59%) and the bookmakers (59%) agree.
- Independiente v Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina, 5:15 PM ET) — 60%. In recent matches, Independiente have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Deportivo Riestra 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Independiente sit 8th and Deportivo Riestra 14th in a 15-team table. Our model (57%) and the bookmakers (61%) agree.
- Boulogne v Annecy (Ligue 2, 2:00 PM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, Boulogne have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Annecy 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Boulogne sit 14th and Annecy 7th in a 18-team table. Our model (63%) and the bookmakers (62%) agree.
- Barracas Central v Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina, 1:00 PM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, Barracas Central have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Racing Club 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Barracas Central sit 6th and Racing Club 12th in a 15-team table. Our model (65%) and the bookmakers (62%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Hammarby FF v IF Elfsborg — model 63%, market 73%.
- Wisla Krakow v Cracovia Krakow — model 62%, market 72%.
- Everton v Coventry — model 63%, market 72%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Hasselt v Patro Eisden (2:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 84% | 1.42 |
| Sevilla v Alaves (3:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.42 |
| Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh v Nam Dinh (6:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.37 |
| Limonest v Andrézieux (1:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.37 |
| Operario-PR v Sport Recife (5:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 |
| Odra Opole v Unia Skierniewice (2:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.43 |
| Persepam Madura Utd v Arema FC (7:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.4 |
| Venezia v Udinese (2:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 71% | 1.39 |
| Boulogne v Annecy (2:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 71% | 1.4 |
| Azazga v MSP Batna (9:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 73% | 1.36 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Zenit U19 to win — Zenit U19 v Fakel U19 (11:00 AM ET).
- Botev Plovdiv to win — Botev Plovdiv v Dunav Ruse (12:15 PM ET).
- Persepolis FC to win — Persepolis FC v Fajr Sepasi (8:00 AM ET).
- Tikveš to win — Tikveš v Skopje (7:00 AM ET).
- Al Zulfi to win — Al Zulfi v Jeddah Club (9:55 AM ET).
- Aluminium Arak to win — Aluminium Arak v Mes Shahr-e Babak (7:00 AM ET).
- Tira to score — Tira v Hapoel Nazareth Illit (5:40 AM ET), model 82%.
- Dunkerque to score — Dunkerque v Guingamp (2:00 PM ET), model 77%.
- Ilirija to score — Ilirija v Triglav (8:00 AM ET), model 78%.
- Barracas Central to score — Barracas Central v Racing Club (1:00 PM ET), model 78%.
- Operario-PR to score — Operario-PR v Sport Recife (5:30 PM ET), model 78%.
- KCB to score — KCB v APS Bomet (8:00 AM ET), model 77%.
- Atletico Grau to score — Atletico Grau v Cusco (3:00 PM ET), model 76%.
- UTS Rabat to score — UTS Rabat v Amal Tiznit (3:00 PM ET), model 77%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.