231 matches, one model. These are our first-half goal ratings and best picks for Friday, November 13 — with the reasoning behind the strongest spots.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore v Paraguay 7:00 AM | Friendlies | 76% | 70% | 78% |
| Chinese Taipei v Kyrgyzstan 7:00 AM | Friendlies | 78% | 77% | 78% |
| Comoros v Congo 8:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 64% | 71% | 61% |
| Mozambique v Ethiopia 8:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 66% | 70% | 65% |
| Zambia v Burundi 8:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 66% | 74% | 62% |
| Kuwait v Syria 9:00 AM | Friendlies | 69% | 74% | 66% |
| United Arab Emirates v Honduras 9:10 AM | Friendlies | 70% | 78% | 66% |
| Saudi Arabia v South Korea 9:30 AM | Friendlies | 65% | 67% | 65% |
| Qatar v Australia 9:45 AM | Friendlies | 67% | 72% | 65% |
| Burkina Faso v Mauritania 11:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 65% | 69% | 62% |
| Cape Verde Islands v Liberia 11:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 69% | 74% | 66% |
| Gabon v Lesotho 11:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 69% | 68% | 69% |
| Nigeria v Tanzania 11:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 73% | 74% | 72% |
| South Africa v Kenya 11:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 68% | 72% | 66% |
| Tunisia v Libya 11:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 68% | 74% | 66% |
| Moldova v Kazakhstan 12:00 PM | UEFA Nations League | 63% | 68% | 61% |
| Egypt v Malawi 2:00 PM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 73% | 76% | 72% |
| Mali v Rwanda 2:00 PM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 68% | 77% | 65% |
| Bermuda v St. Lucia 2:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 82% | 85% | 81% |
| Puerto Rico v Dominica 2:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 80% | 83% | 79% |
| Leganes v Burgos 2:30 PM | Segunda División | 66% | 70% | 65% |
| Serbia v Germany 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 75% | 70% | 77% |
| Netherlands v Greece 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 71% | 66% | 73% |
| Slovakia v Faroe Islands 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 71% | 75% | 69% |
| Bulgaria v Iceland 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 66% | 70% | 65% |
| Liechtenstein v Azerbaijan 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 65% | 66% | 65% |
| Luxembourg v Estonia 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 63% | 69% | 61% |
| andorra v Gibraltar 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 58% | 64% | 56% |
| Slovenia v Switzerland 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 68% | 75% | 65% |
| Scotland v FYR Macedonia 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 71% | 69% | 72% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Bermuda v St. Lucia — 82%
CONCACAF Nations League · 2:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 3 of Bermuda's last 4 games and 4 of St. Lucia's last 4. Our model (85%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
Puerto Rico v Dominica — 80%
CONCACAF Nations League · 2:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 2 of Puerto Rico's last 4 games and 3 of Dominica's last 5. Our model (83%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Saint Martin v El Salvador — 79%
CONCACAF Nations League · 6:00 PM ET. Saint Martin games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 4, and El Salvador games in 4 of 4. Our model (83%) is keener than the bookmakers (77%).
Chinese Taipei v Kyrgyzstan — 78%
Friendlies · 7:00 AM ET. Their last 2 meetings produced a first-half goal 1 time. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Grenada v St. Kitts and Nevis — 76%
CONCACAF Nations League · 3:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Grenada's last 4 games and 4 of St. Kitts and Nevis's last 4. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- andorra v Gibraltar (UEFA Nations League, 2:45 PM ET) — 58%. In recent matches, andorra have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 4, Gibraltar 1 times in 4. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Our model (64%) is keener than the bookmakers (56%).
- Moldova v Kazakhstan (UEFA Nations League, 12:00 PM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, Moldova have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 4, Kazakhstan 4 times in 4. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Our model (68%) is keener than the bookmakers (61%).
- Luxembourg v Estonia (UEFA Nations League, 2:45 PM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, Luxembourg have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 4, Estonia 2 times in 4. Our model (69%) is keener than the bookmakers (61%).
- Comoros v Congo (Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, 8:00 AM ET) — 64%. Our model (71%) is keener than the bookmakers (61%).
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Mali v Rwanda — model 77%, market 65%.
- Zambia v Burundi — model 74%, market 62%.
- United Arab Emirates v Honduras — model 78%, market 66%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Arab Emirates v Honduras (9:10 AM ET) | Home or draw | 80% | 1.38 |
| United Arab Emirates v Honduras (9:10 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.38 |
| Moldova v Kazakhstan (12:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 74% | 1.4 |
| Slovenia v Switzerland (2:45 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.42 |
| Bulgaria v Iceland (2:45 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.36 |
| Saudi Arabia v South Korea (9:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.42 |
| Slovakia v Faroe Islands (2:45 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 |
| Andorra v Gibraltar (2:45 PM ET) | Either team wins | 70% | 1.37 |
| Leganes v Burgos (2:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.42 |
| Luxembourg v Estonia (2:45 PM ET) | Either team wins | 70% | 1.38 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Coleraine FC to win — Coleraine FC v Portadown (2:45 PM ET).
- Puerto Rico to win — Puerto Rico v Dominica (2:00 PM ET).
- FC Helsingor to win — FC Helsingor v Holstebro (1:00 PM ET).
- Ospitaletto to win — Ospitaletto v Dolomiti Bellunesi (2:30 PM ET).
- Viktoria Plzeň II to win — Viktoria Plzeň II v Loko Vltavín (12:30 PM ET).
- The New Saints to win — The New Saints v Briton Ferry (2:45 PM ET).
- United Arab Emirates to score — United Arab Emirates v Honduras (9:10 AM ET), model 82%.
- Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat to score — Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat v Team (7:30 AM ET), model 81%.
- Baglan Dragons to score — Baglan Dragons v Barry Town (2:45 PM ET), model 80%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.