Our model has rated all 93 matches on Thursday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand v India 1:00 AM | Friendlies | 76% | 79% | 75% |
| Ghana v Somalia 10:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 74% | 73% | 75% |
| Uzbekistan v Russia 10:00 AM | Friendlies | 67% | 71% | 65% |
| Congo DR v Sierra Leone 11:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 69% | 70% | 69% |
| Equatorial Guinea v Zimbabwe 11:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 65% | 73% | 61% |
| Guinea v Eritrea 11:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 73% | 72% | 73% |
| Madagascar v Guinea-Bissau 11:00 AM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 65% | 72% | 62% |
| Türkiye v Belgium 12:00 PM | UEFA Nations League | 74% | 72% | 75% |
| Armenia v Cyprus 12:00 PM | UEFA Nations League | 67% | 69% | 66% |
| Lithuania v Suriname 12:00 PM | Friendlies | 66% | 73% | 62% |
| Calvo Sotelo v Albacete 12:30 PM | Copa del Rey | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| Malta v Eswatini 12:30 PM | Friendlies | 65% | 72% | 62% |
| Navalcarnero v Real Betis 1:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 77% | 72% | 78% |
| Tarancón v Levante 1:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 79% | 75% | 81% |
| Benin v Central African Republic 2:00 PM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 66% | 69% | 65% |
| Cameroon v Namibia 2:00 PM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 64% | 62% | 65% |
| Ivory Coast v Gambia 2:00 PM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 72% | 71% | 72% |
| Senegal v Sudan 2:00 PM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 74% | 71% | 75% |
| Barbados v Guadeloupe 2:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 74% | 79% | 72% |
| Cayman Islands v Guyana 2:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 84% | 85% | 84% |
| Italy v France 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 73% | 75% | 72% |
| Czechia v Spain 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 78% | 81% | 77% |
| England v Croatia 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 77% | 79% | 77% |
| Albania v Finland 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 64% | 71% | 61% |
| San Marino v Belarus 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| Montenegro v Latvia 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 72% | 74% | 71% |
| Bonaire v Cuba 3:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 80% | 81% | 79% |
| Aruba v Martinique 5:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 75% | 79% | 73% |
| Antigua and Barbuda v Trinidad and Tobago 6:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 75% | 82% | 72% |
| Curaçao v Panama 7:30 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 75% | 75% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Cayman Islands v Guyana — 84%
CONCACAF Nations League · 2:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Cayman Islands have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 4, Guyana 3 times in 4. Our model (85%) and the bookmakers (84%) agree.
Bonaire v Cuba — 80%
CONCACAF Nations League · 3:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Bonaire have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 4, Cuba 4 times in 4. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Tarancón v Levante — 79%
Copa del Rey · 1:00 PM ET. Tarancón games have had a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5, and Levante games in 3 of 5. The bookmakers (81%) are keener than our model alone (75%).
Czechia v Spain — 78%
UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 2 of Czechia's last 4 games and 4 of Spain's last 5. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
England v Croatia — 77%
UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET. In recent matches, England have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Croatia 3 times in 4. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Our model (79%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Albania v Finland (UEFA Nations League, 2:45 PM ET) — 64%. In recent matches, Albania have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 4, Finland 3 times in 4. Our model (71%) is keener than the bookmakers (61%).
- Cameroon v Namibia (Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, 2:00 PM ET) — 64%. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 1 time. Our model (62%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
- Equatorial Guinea v Zimbabwe (Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, 11:00 AM ET) — 65%. Our model (73%) is keener than the bookmakers (61%).
- Malta v Eswatini (Friendlies, 12:30 PM ET) — 65%. Our model (72%) is keener than the bookmakers (62%).
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Equatorial Guinea v Zimbabwe — model 73%, market 61%.
- Lithuania v Suriname — model 73%, market 62%.
- Albania v Finland — model 71%, market 61%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sur v Dhofar (8:50 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.38 |
| Thailand U23 v Qatar U23 (3:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 76% | 1.5 |
| Albania v Finland (2:45 PM ET) | Either team wins | 73% | 1.39 |
| Mega Sport v El Seka El Hadid (7:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.44 |
| Atenas v Oriental (2:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 |
| Mount Pleasant Academy v Portmore United (3:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 |
| Montenegro v Latvia (2:45 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.41 |
| Albania v Finland (2:45 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.46 |
| Lithuania v Suriname (12:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.45 |
| Deportivo Cali v Deportes Tolima (4:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.4 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Spain to win — Czechia v Spain (2:45 PM ET).
- Barcelona W to win — Barcelona W v Arsenal W (12:45 PM ET).
- Guyana to win — Cayman Islands v Guyana (2:00 PM ET).
- Belarus to win — San Marino v Belarus (2:45 PM ET).
- Montenegro to win — Montenegro v Latvia (2:45 PM ET).
- England to win — England v Croatia (2:45 PM ET).
- Thailand U23 to score — Thailand U23 v Qatar U23 (3:00 AM ET), model 83%.
- Deportivo Cali to score — Deportivo Cali v Deportes Tolima (4:00 PM ET), model 81%.
- Masar to score — Masar v Tersana (7:30 AM ET), model 80%.
- Águilas Doradas to score — Águilas Doradas v Independiente Medellin (4:00 PM ET), model 78%.
- Albania to score — Albania v Finland (2:45 PM ET), model 76%.
- Mount Pleasant Academy to score — Mount Pleasant Academy v Portmore United (3:00 PM ET), model 76%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.