199 matches, one model. These are our first-half goal ratings and best picks for Wednesday, November 11 — with the reasoning behind the strongest spots.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam v Chinese Taipei 7:00 AM | Friendlies | 78% | 74% | 79% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Vietnam v Chinese Taipei — 78%
Friendlies · 7:00 AM ET. Their last 2 meetings produced a first-half goal 1 time. Our model (74%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Everton W v Durham W — 85%
WSL Cup · 2:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 3 of Everton W's last 5 games and 5 of Durham W's last 5. Their last 2 meetings produced a first-half goal 1 time. Everton W sit 2nd and Durham W 23rd in a 23-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (82%) and the bookmakers (85%) agree.
Hammarby W v Spartak Myjava W — 83%
UEFA Europa Cup - Women · 1:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of Hammarby W's last 5 games and 5 of Spartak Myjava W's last 5. Our model (85%) and the bookmakers (82%) agree.
Brighton W v Watford W — 83%
WSL Cup · 2:45 PM ET. Brighton W games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Watford W games in 5 of 5. Brighton W sit 6th and Watford W 20th in a 23-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. The bookmakers (84%) are keener than our model alone (78%).
Juventus W v Lyon W — 81%
UEFA Champions League Women · 3:00 PM ET. Juventus W games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Lyon W games in 5 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Vietnam v Chinese Taipei — model 74%, market 79%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brøndby W v Rosenborg W (12:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 77% | 1.4 |
| Avro v Whitby Town (2:45 PM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 1.42 |
| La Luz v Fenix (2:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.42 |
| Real Cundinamarca v Real Cartagena (6:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.4 |
| Tacuarembo v Miramar (2:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.4 |
| La Luz v Fenix (2:30 PM ET) | Home or draw | 71% | 1.44 |
| La Luz v Fenix (2:30 PM ET) | Either team wins | 72% | 1.42 |
| Instituto Res. v San Lorenzo Res. (1:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 69% | 1.36 |
| Onhaye v Habay-la-Neuve (8:30 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.44 |
| Independiente Res. v Lanús Res. (1:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.42 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Avro to win — Avro v Whitby Town (2:45 PM ET).
- Hammarby W to win — Hammarby W v Spartak Myjava W (1:00 PM ET).
- Manacor to win — Manacor v Inter Ibiza (11:30 AM ET).
- Eintracht Frankfurt W to win — Eintracht Frankfurt W v PSV/Eindhoven W (12:30 PM ET).
- Brighton W to win — Brighton W v Watford W (2:45 PM ET).
- Everton W to win — Everton W v Durham W (2:00 PM ET).
- Castellonense to score — Castellonense v La Nucía (12:45 PM ET), model 82%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.