Our model has rated all 86 matches on Monday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabadell v Real Sociedad II 2:30 PM | Segunda División | 67% | 69% | 66% |
| Plymouth Parkway v Berkhamsted 2:30 PM | FA Cup | 73% | 69% | 75% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Plymouth Parkway v Berkhamsted — 73%
FA Cup · 2:30 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 3 of Plymouth Parkway's last 5 games and 4 of Berkhamsted's last 5. Plymouth Parkway sit 3rd and Berkhamsted 2nd in a 98-team table. The bookmakers (75%) are keener than our model alone (69%).
Sabadell v Real Sociedad II — 67%
Segunda División · 2:30 PM ET. In recent matches, Sabadell have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Real Sociedad II 4 times in 5. Sabadell sit 12th and Real Sociedad II 19th in a 22-team table. Our model (69%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
Coventry City U21 v Queens Park Rangers U21 — 82%
Professional Development League · 8:00 AM ET. In recent matches, Coventry City U21 have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Queens Park Rangers U21 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Coventry City U21 sit 4th and Queens Park Rangers U21 14th in a 17-team table. Our model (83%) and the bookmakers (82%) agree.
Middlesbrough U21 v Derby County U21 — 81%
Premier League 2 Division One · 2:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Middlesbrough U21 have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Derby County U21 3 times in 5. Middlesbrough U21 sit 30th and Derby County U21 20th in a 31-team table. Our model (83%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
West Bromwich Albion U21 v Bromley U21 — 79%
Premier League Cup · 2:00 PM ET. West Bromwich Albion U21 sit 21st and Bromley U21 24th in a 38-team table. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (80%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Plymouth Parkway v Berkhamsted — model 69%, market 75%.
- Sabadell v Real Sociedad II — model 69%, market 66%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Veles v KAMAZ (11:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.38 |
| Plymouth Parkway v Berkhamsted (2:30 PM ET) | Home or draw | 75% | 1.37 |
| Tecnico Universitario v Manta FC (3:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.37 |
| Veles v KAMAZ (11:30 AM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.38 |
| AZ Picerno v Bari (2:45 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.4 |
| Foggia v Barletta (2:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.4 |
| Team Altamura v Cavese (2:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.44 |
| Ind. Yumbo v Union Magdalena (3:30 PM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.4 |
| Hvidovre v Aarhus Fremad (1:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.4 |
| Ind. Yumbo v Union Magdalena (3:30 PM ET) | Either team wins | 70% | 1.4 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Liptovský Mikuláš to win — Liptovský Mikuláš v MFK Bytča (11:00 AM ET).
- Shortan to win — Shortan v BuxDu (4:00 AM ET).
- Ikorodu City to win — Ikorodu City v Inter Lagos (10:00 AM ET).
- Atletico Madrid W to win — Atletico Madrid W v FC Levante Badalona W (1:00 PM ET).
- Veles to score — Veles v KAMAZ (11:30 AM ET), model 82%.
- Foggia to score — Foggia v Barletta (2:30 PM ET), model 78%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.