Here are The Soccer Expert model's predictions for Sunday, November 8: first-half goal ratings for 1175 fixtures, the games where an early goal looks most likely, and the published picks it likes best.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia v Sanfrecce Hiroshima 12:00 AM | J1 League | 67% | 63% | 69% |
| Vissel Kobe v Urawa 12:00 AM | J1 League | 70% | 68% | 71% |
| Daejeon Citizen v Incheon United 12:00 AM | K League 1 | 59% | 59% | – |
| FC Seoul v Ulsan Hyundai FC 12:00 AM | K League 1 | 69% | 69% | – |
| Gamba Osaka v Cerezo Osaka 1:00 AM | J1 League | 70% | 68% | 71% |
| Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory 1:00 AM | A-League | 71% | 65% | 73% |
| Gangwon FC v Jeonbuk Motors 2:30 AM | K League 1 | 61% | 61% | – |
| Bucheon FC 1995 v Pohang Steelers 2:30 AM | K League 1 | 63% | 63% | – |
| JEF United Chiba v Mito Hollyhock 3:00 AM | J1 League | 66% | 66% | 66% |
| Rizespor v Erzurumspor FK 5:30 AM | Süper Lig | 67% | 64% | 69% |
| FC Copenhagen v Brondby 6:00 AM | Superliga | 73% | 74% | 72% |
| Heerenveen v Feyenoord 6:15 AM | Eredivisie | 78% | 77% | 78% |
| Napoli v Lazio 6:30 AM | Serie A | 74% | 78% | 72% |
| Stafford Rangers v Grimsby 7:00 AM | FA Cup | 75% | 75% | – |
| Club Brugge KV v Anderlecht 7:30 AM | Jupiler Pro League | 77% | 75% | 78% |
| Vfl Bochum v Karlsruher SC 7:30 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 73% | 68% | 75% |
| FC Heidenheim v Hannover 96 7:30 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 76% | 78% | 75% |
| FC Magdeburg v FC St. Pauli 7:30 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 73% | 75% | 72% |
| IFK Goteborg v Malmo FF 8:00 AM | Allsvenskan | 70% | 63% | 72% |
| Halmstad v Djurgardens IF 8:00 AM | Allsvenskan | 75% | 73% | 75% |
| Aarhus v AC Horsens 8:00 AM | Superliga | 72% | 70% | 73% |
| FC ST. Gallen v FC Lugano 8:00 AM | Super League | 77% | 81% | 75% |
| Elche v Real Betis 8:00 AM | La Liga | 73% | 76% | 72% |
| Çorum FK v Fenerbahçe 8:00 AM | Süper Lig | 74% | 74% | 73% |
| Tromso v Bodo/Glimt 8:30 AM | Eliteserien | 79% | 80% | 78% |
| Twente v Ajax 8:30 AM | Eredivisie | 75% | 76% | 75% |
| TSV Hartberg v SCR Altach 8:30 AM | Bundesliga | 73% | 78% | 71% |
| WSG Wattens v Austria Vienna 8:30 AM | Bundesliga | 72% | 76% | 71% |
| Jagiellonia v GKS Katowice 8:45 AM | Ekstraklasa | 72% | 66% | 75% |
| Genoa v AC Milan 9:00 AM | Serie A | 67% | 72% | 65% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Celtic v Kilmarnock — 83%
Premiership · 11:00 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 3 of Celtic's last 5 games and 5 of Kilmarnock's last 5. Celtic sit 1st and Kilmarnock 12th in a 12-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (82%) and the bookmakers (83%) agree.
Cambuur v PSV Eindhoven — 81%
Eredivisie · 10:45 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Cambuur's last 5 games and 4 of PSV Eindhoven's last 5. Cambuur sit 10th and PSV Eindhoven 3rd in a 18-team table. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
Viking v KFUM Oslo — 81%
Eliteserien · 11:00 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of Viking's last 5 games and 4 of KFUM Oslo's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Viking sit 1st and KFUM Oslo 10th in a 16-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (84%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
FC Midtjylland v Sonderjyske — 80%
Superliga · 12:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of FC Midtjylland's last 5 games and 5 of Sonderjyske's last 5. FC Midtjylland sit 1st and Sonderjyske 12th in a 12-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (83%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Sandefjord v Molde — 79%
Eliteserien · 11:00 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Sandefjord's last 5 games and 5 of Molde's last 5. Sandefjord sit 12th and Molde 4th in a 16-team table. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Santa Clara v GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga, 10:30 AM ET) — 61%. In recent matches, Santa Clara have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, GIL Vicente 2 times in 5. Santa Clara sit 4th and GIL Vicente 7th in a 18-team table. Our model (63%) and the bookmakers (61%) agree.
- Central Cordoba de Santiago v Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina, 5:30 PM ET) — 64%. In recent matches, Central Cordoba de Santiago have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Lanus 3 times in 5. Central Cordoba de Santiago sit 15th and Lanus 5th in a 15-team table. Our model (62%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
- JEF United Chiba v Mito Hollyhock (J1 League, 3:00 AM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, JEF United Chiba have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Mito Hollyhock 3 times in 5. JEF United Chiba sit 18th and Mito Hollyhock 19th in a 20-team table. Our model (66%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
- Carrarese v Sampdoria (Serie B, 11:15 AM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Carrarese have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Sampdoria 4 times in 5. Carrarese sit 16th and Sampdoria 19th in a 20-team table. Our model (66%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- IF Brommapojkarna v Mjallby AIF — model 59%, market 71%.
- Sporting Gijon v Valladolid — model 75%, market 65%.
- Atletico Madrid v Barcelona — model 71%, market 81%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radnik Surdulica v OFK Beograd (7:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 81% | 1.38 |
| Genoa v AC Milan (9:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.38 |
| Sporting Gijon v Valladolid (12:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.4 |
| Sliema Wanderers v Valletta FC (11:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.36 |
| Imisli FK v Sumqayıt (6:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.36 |
| 1. FC Magdeburg v FC St. Pauli (7:30 AM ET) | Home or draw | 81% | 1.47 |
| Spartak Varna v Arda Kardzhali (7:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.39 |
| Real Murcia v Algeciras (2:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.36 |
| Gimnástica Torrelavega v Gernika (11:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.37 |
| Bucheon FC 1995 v Pohang Steelers (2:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.39 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- FC Midtjylland to win — FC Midtjylland v Sonderjyske (12:00 PM ET).
- Celtic to win — Celtic v Kilmarnock (11:00 AM ET).
- Universidad de Chile to win — Universidad de Chile v Cobresal (1:00 PM ET).
- Djurgardens IF to win — Halmstad v Djurgardens IF (8:00 AM ET).
- Goias to win — Goias v Ponte Preta (5:15 PM ET).
- Suwon Bluewings to win — Suwon Bluewings v Yongin City (12:00 AM ET).
- Milazzo to score — Milazzo v Vigor Lamezia (8:30 AM ET), model 85%.
- Dinamo Tirana to score — Dinamo Tirana v Skenderbeu Korce (10:00 AM ET), model 84%.
- Boiro to score — Boiro v Arenteiro (11:00 AM ET), model 82%.
- Berceo to score — Berceo v Alfaro (6:00 AM ET), model 84%.
- Chabab Atl. Khenifra to score — Chabab Atl. Khenifra v Riadi Salmi (10:00 AM ET), model 82%.
- Club Leon U21 to score — Club Leon U21 v Guadalajara Chivas U21 (10:00 AM ET), model 82%.
- Murang'a SEAL to score — Murang'a SEAL v Ulinzi Stars (7:00 AM ET), model 83%.
- Grosseto to score — Grosseto v Pescara (6:30 AM ET), model 82%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.