Our model has rated all 127 matches on Thursday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan v Ferencvarosi TC 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 76% | 78% | 75% |
| Anderlecht v Red Bull Salzburg 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 73% | 70% | 73% |
| Crystal Palace v 1899 Hoffenheim 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 70% | 67% | 71% |
| Lillestrom v Plzen 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| NEC Nijmegen v Omonia Nicosia 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 73% | 71% | 73% |
| Real Sociedad v Lyon 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 75% | 73% | 75% |
| Sparta Praha v Bournemouth 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 74% | 79% | 73% |
| Aarhus v SC Braga 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 67% | 69% | 66% |
| Atalanta v Kairat Almaty 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 78% | 76% | 78% |
| FK Crvena Zvezda v Inter Club d'Escaldes 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 79% | 72% | 81% |
| KuPS v Gent 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 69% | 68% | 69% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC v HNK Hajduk Split 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 72% | 71% | 72% |
| FC Midtjylland v Ajax 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 75% | 77% | 75% |
| Mjallby AIF v Borac Banja Luka 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 66% | 66% | 66% |
| FC Thun v Heart Of Midlothian 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 76% | 81% | 75% |
| Trabzonspor v SC Freiburg 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 76% | 79% | 75% |
| AZ Alkmaar v Juventus 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 70% | 66% | 71% |
| Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 78% | 86% | 77% |
| Benfica v Lech Poznan 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 82% | 84% | 81% |
| Celta Vigo v Union St. Gilloise 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 71% | 72% | 71% |
| Celtic v Beşiktaş 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 76% | 82% | 75% |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva v OFI 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 71% | 66% | 72% |
| Sturm Graz v Celje 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 75% | 73% | 75% |
| Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 74% | 78% | 72% |
| Torreense v Ararat-Armenia 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 68% | 74% | 66% |
| FC Copenhagen v FC Iberia 1999 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 76% | 73% | 77% |
| Getafe v Brighton 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 70% | 76% | 69% |
| FC Lugano v Kauno Žalgiris 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 79% | 78% | 79% |
| Monaco v FC Nordsjaelland 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 76% | 73% | 77% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Benfica v Lech Poznan — 82%
UEFA Europa League · 3:00 PM ET. Benfica games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Lech Poznan games in 2 of 5. Their last 2 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Our model (84%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
FK Crvena Zvezda v Inter Club d'Escaldes — 79%
UEFA Europa Conference League · 12:45 PM ET. FK Crvena Zvezda games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Inter Club d'Escaldes games in 3 of 5. The bookmakers (81%) are keener than our model alone (72%).
FC Lugano v Kauno Žalgiris — 79%
UEFA Europa Conference League · 3:00 PM ET. In recent matches, FC Lugano have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Kauno Žalgiris 3 times in 5. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille — 78%
UEFA Europa League · 3:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 5 games and 5 of Marseille's last 5. Our model (86%) is keener than the bookmakers (77%).
Atalanta v Kairat Almaty — 78%
UEFA Europa Conference League · 12:45 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Atalanta's last 5 games and 4 of Kairat Almaty's last 5. Our model (76%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Mjallby AIF v Borac Banja Luka (UEFA Europa Conference League, 12:45 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Mjallby AIF have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Borac Banja Luka 3 times in 5. Our model (66%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
- Aarhus v SC Braga (UEFA Europa Conference League, 12:45 PM ET) — 67%. In recent matches, Aarhus have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, SC Braga 4 times in 5. Our model (69%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
- Torreense v Ararat-Armenia (UEFA Europa League, 3:00 PM ET) — 68%. In recent matches, Torreense have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Ararat-Armenia 5 times in 5. Our model (74%) is keener than the bookmakers (66%).
- KuPS v Gent (UEFA Europa Conference League, 12:45 PM ET) — 69%. In recent matches, KuPS have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Gent 3 times in 5. Our model (68%) and the bookmakers (69%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille — model 86%, market 77%.
- FK Crvena Zvezda v Inter Club d'Escaldes — model 72%, market 81%.
- Getafe v Brighton — model 76%, market 69%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riga v FK Jablonec (3:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 81% | 1.42 |
| Dhofar v Saham (10:20 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.4 |
| Bunyodkor v Xorazm (8:30 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.37 |
| Universidad de Concepcion v O'Higgins (6:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.51 |
| Shams Azar Qazvin v Sanat Naft (8:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.4 |
| Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille (3:00 PM ET) | Home win | 69% | 1.4 |
| Dhofar v Saham (10:20 AM ET) | Home or draw | 72% | 1.4 |
| Diyala v Al Minaa Basra (8:45 AM ET) | Home or draw | 72% | 1.44 |
| Kitchee v Phnom Penh Crown (5:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 70% | 1.44 |
| AZ Alkmaar v Juventus (3:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.42 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Benfica to win — Benfica v Lech Poznan (3:00 PM ET).
- Beitar Nahariya to win — Beitar Nahariya v Tzeirey Tamra (12:30 PM ET).
- Palmeiras to win — Palmeiras v Remo (5:30 PM ET).
- Bayer Leverkusen to win — Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille (3:00 PM ET).
- FC Copenhagen to win — FC Copenhagen v FC Iberia 1999 (3:00 PM ET).
- Machida Zelvia to win — Machida Zelvia v Shanghai Shenhua (5:00 AM ET).
- Rubio NU to score — Rubio NU v Sportivo Luqueno (5:00 PM ET), model 80%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.