Our model has rated all 241 matches on Wednesday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes v Olympiakos Piraeus 10:30 AM | UEFA Europa League | 72% | 74% | 71% |
| AEK Athens FC v Real Madrid 12:45 PM | UEFA Champions League | 81% | 82% | 81% |
| Fenerbahçe v Liverpool 12:45 PM | UEFA Champions League | 80% | 83% | 78% |
| Portugalete v Real Unión 1:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 66% | 68% | 65% |
| Amorebieta v UD Logroñés 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 71% | 72% | 71% |
| Kortrijk v KV Mechelen 2:30 PM | Jupiler Pro League | 71% | 73% | 71% |
| Deportiva Minera v FC Cartagena 2:30 PM | Copa del Rey | 68% | 72% | 66% |
| Reddis v Barakaldo 2:30 PM | Copa del Rey | 65% | 67% | 65% |
| Utebo v Sabadell 2:30 PM | Copa del Rey | 66% | 68% | 65% |
| Cardiff v West Ham 2:45 PM | Championship | 79% | 81% | 78% |
| Wrexham v Middlesbrough 2:45 PM | Championship | 74% | 77% | 73% |
| Oxford United v Reading 2:45 PM | League One | 70% | 65% | 72% |
| Calvo Sotelo v Albacete 2:45 PM | Copa del Rey | 73% | 71% | 73% |
| Bristol City v Wolves 3:00 PM | Championship | 69% | 70% | 69% |
| Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| FC Porto v Napoli 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| Lens v como 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 76% | 78% | 75% |
| PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge KV 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 78% | 77% | 79% |
| RB Leipzig v Manchester City 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 79% | 78% | 79% |
| Slavia Praha v Arsenal 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 76% | 79% | 75% |
| Viking v Sabah FA 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 79% | 78% | 79% |
| Badajoz v Tenerife 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 69% | 70% | 69% |
| Atletico Paranaense v Vasco DA Gama 5:30 PM | Serie A | 70% | 69% | 71% |
| Flamengo v Gremio 5:30 PM | Serie A | 75% | 67% | 78% |
| Botafogo v Atletico-MG 7:30 PM | Serie A | 67% | 67% | – |
| Sao Paulo v Corinthians 7:30 PM | Serie A | 62% | 62% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
AEK Athens FC v Real Madrid — 81%
UEFA Champions League · 12:45 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of AEK Athens FC's last 5 games and 5 of Real Madrid's last 5. Our model (82%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
Fenerbahçe v Liverpool — 80%
UEFA Champions League · 12:45 PM ET. In recent matches, Fenerbahçe have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Liverpool 5 times in 5. Our model (83%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Cardiff v West Ham — 79%
Championship · 2:45 PM ET. Cardiff games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and West Ham games in 5 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Cardiff sit 18th and West Ham 8th in a 24-team table. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
RB Leipzig v Manchester City — 79%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of RB Leipzig's last 5 games and 5 of Manchester City's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Viking v Sabah FA — 79%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Viking games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Sabah FA games in 3 of 5. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Reddis v Barakaldo (Copa del Rey, 2:30 PM ET) — 65%. In recent matches, Reddis have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Barakaldo 1 times in 5. Our model (67%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
- Utebo v Sabadell (Copa del Rey, 2:30 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Utebo have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Sabadell 2 times in 5. Our model (68%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
- Portugalete v Real Unión (Copa del Rey, 1:00 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Portugalete have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Real Unión 4 times in 5. Their last 3 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Our model (68%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
- Deportiva Minera v FC Cartagena (Copa del Rey, 2:30 PM ET) — 68%. In recent matches, Deportiva Minera have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, FC Cartagena 4 times in 5. Our model (72%) is keener than the bookmakers (66%).
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Flamengo v Gremio — model 67%, market 78%.
- Oxford United v Reading — model 65%, market 72%.
- Deportiva Minera v FC Cartagena — model 72%, market 66%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enugu Rangers v Bendel Insurance (10:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.38 |
| Portuguesa FC v Deportivo La Guaira (4:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.38 |
| PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge KV (3:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.41 |
| Szeged 2011 v BVSC (11:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.38 |
| Mladost Lucani U19 v IMT Novi Beograd U19 (7:00 AM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 1.36 |
| Al Kuwait v Nasaf (11:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 75% | 1.44 |
| Muharraq v Al-Jazira (1:15 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.4 |
| Cukaricki U19 v Partizan U19 (7:00 AM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 1.4 |
| Sportivo Ameliano v Club Guarani (5:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.38 |
| Venados FC v Monarcas (6:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 71% | 1.44 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Porto U19 to win — Porto U19 v Napoli U19 (7:00 AM ET).
- Flamengo to win — Flamengo v Gremio (5:30 PM ET).
- Spartak Plovdiv to win — Atletik Kuklen v Spartak Plovdiv (7:30 AM ET).
- Espanyol II to win — Espanyol II v Náxara (12:00 PM ET).
- FC Seoul to win — FC Seoul v Viettel (5:00 AM ET).
- Şahdağ to win — Mingəçevir v Şahdağ (6:00 AM ET).
- Arkadag to score — Arkadag v Gol Gohar (8:45 AM ET), model 80%.
- Cancún to score — Cancún v Piratas (4:00 PM ET), model 80%.
- Libertad Asuncion to score — Libertad Asuncion v Cerro Porteno (5:00 PM ET), model 77%.
- Nkana to score — Nkana v Kansanshi Dynamos (8:00 AM ET), model 79%.
- Obolon' Kyiv U19 to score — Obolon' Kyiv U19 v Metalist 1925 U19 (6:00 AM ET), model 75%.
- Leningradets to score — Leningradets v Ska-khabarovsk (6:00 AM ET), model 77%.
- Bugesera to score — Bugesera v Amagaju (8:00 AM ET), model 76%.
- Portuguesa FC to score — Portuguesa FC v Deportivo La Guaira (4:30 PM ET), model 76%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.