Our model has rated all 204 matches on Tuesday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart 12:45 PM | UEFA Champions League | 79% | 80% | 78% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP 12:45 PM | UEFA Champions League | 71% | 69% | 72% |
| Sirius v Halmstad 1:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 78% | 75% | 79% |
| Anaitasuna v Alaves 1:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 83% | 75% | 86% |
| Pamplona v Eibar 1:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 72% | 73% | 72% |
| Blackburn v Stoke City 2:45 PM | Championship | 66% | 70% | 65% |
| Derby v Norwich 2:45 PM | Championship | 73% | 77% | 71% |
| Portsmouth v Swansea 2:45 PM | Championship | 68% | 73% | 66% |
| Preston v Sheffield Utd 2:45 PM | Championship | 71% | 72% | 71% |
| QPR v Burnley 2:45 PM | Championship | 74% | 77% | 72% |
| Watford v Lincoln 2:45 PM | Championship | 70% | 72% | 69% |
| Charlton v Bolton 2:45 PM | Championship | 70% | 69% | 71% |
| Huddersfield v Luton 2:45 PM | League One | 72% | 70% | 73% |
| Birmingham v Millwall 3:00 PM | Championship | 71% | 73% | 71% |
| West Brom v Southampton 3:00 PM | Championship | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 75% | 71% | 77% |
| Barcelona v Aston Villa 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 83% | 81% | 84% |
| Bodo/Glimt v Lille 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 76% | 79% | 75% |
| Feyenoord v Inter 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 76% | 73% | 77% |
| Lask Linz v Slovan Bratislava 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| Manchester United v AS Roma 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 80% | 83% | 79% |
| Chapecoense-sc v Mirassol 5:30 PM | Serie A | 69% | 70% | 69% |
| Internacional v Coritiba 7:30 PM | Serie A | 64% | 64% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Barcelona v Aston Villa — 83%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Barcelona games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Aston Villa games in 5 of 5. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (84%) agree.
Anaitasuna v Alaves — 83%
Copa del Rey · 1:00 PM ET. The bookmakers (86%) are keener than our model alone (75%).
Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain — 80%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Villarreal games have had a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5, and Paris Saint Germain games in 4 of 5. Our model (83%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart — 79%
UEFA Champions League · 12:45 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Galatasaray's last 5 games and 3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 5. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Lask Linz v Slovan Bratislava — 78%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Lask Linz's last 5 games and 3 of Slovan Bratislava's last 5. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Blackburn v Stoke City (Championship, 2:45 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Blackburn have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Stoke City 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Blackburn sit 13th and Stoke City 7th in a 24-team table. Our model (70%) is keener than the bookmakers (65%).
- Portsmouth v Swansea (Championship, 2:45 PM ET) — 68%. In recent matches, Portsmouth have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Swansea 4 times in 5. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Portsmouth sit 11th and Swansea 2nd in a 24-team table. Our model (73%) is keener than the bookmakers (66%).
- Chapecoense-sc v Mirassol (Serie A, 5:30 PM ET) — 69%. In recent matches, Chapecoense-sc have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Mirassol 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 1 time. Chapecoense-sc sit 20th and Mirassol 16th in a 20-team table. Our model (70%) and the bookmakers (69%) agree.
- Watford v Lincoln (Championship, 2:45 PM ET) — 70%. In recent matches, Watford have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Lincoln 5 times in 5. Watford sit 21st and Lincoln 16th in a 24-team table. Our model (72%) and the bookmakers (69%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Anaitasuna v Alaves — model 75%, market 86%.
- Portsmouth v Swansea — model 73%, market 66%.
- Derby v Norwich — model 77%, market 71%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Esteghlal FC v Al Shamal (11:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 77% | 1.38 |
| 2 de Mayo v Sportivo Trinidense (3:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.38 |
| Portsmouth v Swansea (2:45 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 |
| Wingate & Finchley v Burgess Hill Town (2:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.44 |
| Chapecoense-sc v Mirassol (5:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.4 |
| Montedio Yamagata v Tokushima Vortis (12:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.37 |
| Montedio Yamagata v Tokushima Vortis (12:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 72% | 1.42 |
| Worthing v Fulham U21 (2:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 75% | 1.44 |
| Academico Viseu U23 v Torreense U23 (10:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 72% | 1.36 |
| Lask Linz v Slovan Bratislava (3:00 PM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 1.39 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Eastbourne Borough to win — Eastbourne Borough v Stanway Rovers (2:45 PM ET).
- Ross County to win — Ross County v Celtic II (2:45 PM ET).
- NEC to win — NEC v UPDF (8:00 AM ET).
- Truro City to win — Truro City v West Bromwich Albion U21 (2:00 PM ET).
- Vissel Kobe to win — Vissel Kobe v Ratchaburi (5:00 AM ET).
- Nacional Asuncion to win — Nacional Asuncion v Club Sp. San Lorenzo (5:30 PM ET).
- Feyenoord to score — Feyenoord v Inter (3:00 PM ET), model 86%.
- Esteghlal FC to score — Esteghlal FC v Al Shamal (11:00 AM ET), model 81%.
- Watford to score — Watford v Lincoln (2:45 PM ET), model 78%.
- Oita Trinita to score — Oita Trinita v Vanraure Hachinohe (12:00 AM ET), model 81%.
- Lewes to score — Lewes v Dartford (2:45 PM ET), model 79%.
- East Bengal II to score — East Bengal II v Al Seeb (8:45 AM ET), model 79%.
- Formartine United to score — Formartine United v Cove Rangers (2:45 PM ET), model 79%.
- Công An Nhân Dân to score — Công An Nhân Dân v Kyoto Sanga (7:15 AM ET), model 76%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.