Here are The Soccer Expert model's predictions for Sunday, November 1: first-half goal ratings for 1144 fixtures, the games where an early goal looks most likely, and the published picks it likes best.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos v Kawasaki Frontale 12:00 AM | J1 League | 71% | 65% | 73% |
| Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners FC 12:00 AM | A-League | 72% | 65% | 75% |
| JEF United Chiba v Avispa Fukuoka 1:00 AM | J1 League | 64% | 64% | 65% |
| V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy 1:00 AM | J1 League | 63% | 58% | 65% |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC v Gangwon FC 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 64% | 64% | – |
| Pohang Steelers v Jeju United FC 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 65% | 65% | – |
| Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka 2:00 AM | J1 League | 69% | 71% | 69% |
| FC Seoul v Incheon United 2:30 AM | K League 1 | 69% | 69% | – |
| FC Anyang v Bucheon FC 1995 2:30 AM | K League 1 | 67% | 67% | – |
| Perth Glory FC v Adelaide United 3:00 AM | A-League | 74% | 79% | 72% |
| Amed v Eyüpspor 5:30 AM | Süper Lig | 74% | 77% | 73% |
| PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag 6:15 AM | Eredivisie | 73% | 72% | 73% |
| como v Venezia 6:30 AM | Serie A | 80% | 84% | 78% |
| Cercle Brugge v Antwerp 7:30 AM | Jupiler Pro League | 73% | 72% | 73% |
| SpVgg Greuther Furth v Holstein Kiel 7:30 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Hannover 96 v Dynamo Dresden 7:30 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| FC St. Pauli v FC Nurnberg 7:30 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| Djurgardens IF v Degerfors IF 8:00 AM | Allsvenskan | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| Malmo FF v Hammarby FF 8:00 AM | Allsvenskan | 71% | 64% | 73% |
| Odense v Silkeborg 8:00 AM | Superliga | 73% | 74% | 73% |
| Viborg v AC Horsens 8:00 AM | Superliga | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| BSC Young Boys v FC Zurich 8:00 AM | Super League | 82% | 80% | 83% |
| Falkirk v Celtic 8:00 AM | Premiership | 78% | 80% | 77% |
| Eldense v Granada CF 8:00 AM | Segunda División | 69% | 71% | 69% |
| Getafe v Sevilla 8:00 AM | La Liga | 62% | 68% | 59% |
| Başakşehir v Samsunspor 8:00 AM | Süper Lig | 73% | 74% | 72% |
| Trabzonspor v Gaziantep FK 8:00 AM | Süper Lig | 78% | 76% | 78% |
| Brann v Molde 8:30 AM | Eliteserien | 80% | 80% | 79% |
| Excelsior v Twente 8:30 AM | Eredivisie | 76% | 79% | 75% |
| Telstar v Utrecht 8:30 AM | Eredivisie | 75% | 76% | 75% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Racing Santander v Real Madrid — 84%
La Liga · 10:15 AM ET. Racing Santander games have had a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5, and Real Madrid games in 4 of 5. Racing Santander sit 15th and Real Madrid 3rd in a 20-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (82%) and the bookmakers (84%) agree.
BSC Young Boys v FC Zurich — 82%
Super League · 8:00 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 3 of BSC Young Boys's last 5 games and 4 of FC Zurich's last 5. BSC Young Boys sit 2nd and FC Zurich 5th in a 12-team table. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (83%) agree.
Red Bull Salzburg v Austria Lustenau — 80%
Bundesliga · 8:30 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of Red Bull Salzburg's last 5 games and 3 of Austria Lustenau's last 5. Red Bull Salzburg sit 2nd and Austria Lustenau 10th in a 12-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
como v Venezia — 80%
Serie A · 6:30 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of como's last 5 games and 2 of Venezia's last 5. como sit 5th and Venezia 20th in a 20-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (84%) is keener than the bookmakers (78%).
Brann v Molde — 80%
Eliteserien · 8:30 AM ET. Brann games have had a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5, and Molde games in 5 of 5. Brann sit 9th and Molde 3rd in a 16-team table. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Belgrano Cordoba v Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina, 4:30 PM ET) — 58%. In recent matches, Belgrano Cordoba have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Barracas Central 5 times in 5. Belgrano Cordoba sit 5th and Barracas Central 6th in a 15-team table. The bookmakers (61%) are keener than our model alone (52%).
- Newells Old Boys v Union Santa Fe (Liga Profesional Argentina, 4:30 PM ET) — 60%. In recent matches, Newells Old Boys have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Union Santa Fe 3 times in 5. Newells Old Boys sit 6th and Union Santa Fe 10th in a 15-team table. The bookmakers (62%) are keener than our model alone (54%).
- Getafe v Sevilla (La Liga, 8:00 AM ET) — 62%. In recent matches, Getafe have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Sevilla 4 times in 5. Getafe sit 18th and Sevilla 6th in a 20-team table. Our model (68%) is keener than the bookmakers (59%).
- Boca Juniors v River Plate (Liga Profesional Argentina, 1:00 PM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, Boca Juniors have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, River Plate 5 times in 5. Boca Juniors sit 3rd and River Plate 4th in a 15-team table. Our model (63%) and the bookmakers (62%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Lanus v Gimnasia M. — model 55%, market 66%.
- Austria Vienna v Rapid Vienna — model 84%, market 73%.
- Maritimo v Santa Clara — model 71%, market 61%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 W v Werder Bremen W (8:00 AM ET) | Away win | 83% | 1.42 |
| Maritimo v Santa Clara (1:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 78% | 1.38 |
| Elche v Valencia (12:30 PM ET) | Home or draw | 79% | 1.43 |
| Mlada Boleslav v Hradec Králové (7:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 78% | 1.4 |
| Pohang Steelers v Jeju United FC (1:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.39 |
| Panathinaikos v AEK Athens FC (12:30 PM ET) | Home or draw | 76% | 1.39 |
| Londrina v America Mineiro (2:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.37 |
| Lusitânia Lourosa v Farense (10:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.38 |
| V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy (1:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.38 |
| Panetolikos v OFI (11:00 AM ET) | Either team wins | 76% | 1.38 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Stromsgodset to win — Stromsgodset v Moss (11:00 AM ET).
- Selangor to win — Selangor v Imigresen (8:00 AM ET).
- Ararat-Armenia to win — Ararat-Armenia v Gandzasar (10:00 AM ET).
- Dinamo Batumi to win — Dinamo Batumi v Meshakhte (10:00 AM ET).
- FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt to win — FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt v SV Babelsberg 03 (8:00 AM ET).
- Hammarby W to win — Uppsala W v Hammarby W (9:00 AM ET).
- Orduspor 1967 to score — Orduspor 1967 v Silivrispor (5:00 AM ET), model 85%.
- Elche to score — Elche v Valencia (12:30 PM ET), model 84%.
- Aurora to score — Aurora v Antigua GFC (12:00 PM ET), model 84%.
- Athletic Carpi to score — Athletic Carpi v Renate (11:30 AM ET), model 83%.
- Mornar to score — Mornar v Petrovac (11:00 AM ET), model 83%.
- Igea Virtus to score — Igea Virtus v Sambiase (9:00 AM ET), model 80%.
- Terranuova Traiana to score — Terranuova Traiana v Lucchese (8:30 AM ET), model 82%.
- Kapaz to score — Kapaz v Imisli FK (8:30 AM ET), model 82%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.