Our model has rated all 1546 matches on Saturday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix 12:00 AM | A-League | 75% | 76% | 75% |
| Kyoto Sanga v Shimizu S-pulse 1:00 AM | J1 League | 63% | 56% | 66% |
| Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:00 AM | J1 League | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| Fagiano Okayama v FC Tokyo 1:00 AM | J1 League | 69% | 69% | 69% |
| Jeonbuk Motors v Daejeon Citizen 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 61% | 61% | – |
| Kashima v Cerezo Osaka 2:00 AM | J1 League | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Vissel Kobe v Nagoya Grampus 2:00 AM | J1 League | 70% | 68% | 71% |
| Melbourne City v Sydney FC 2:00 AM | A-League | 71% | 77% | 69% |
| Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa 3:00 AM | J1 League | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| Gwangju FC v Sangju Sangmu FC 3:30 AM | K League 1 | 66% | 66% | – |
| Macarthur v Western Sydney 4:40 AM | A-League | 75% | 79% | 73% |
| Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK 6:30 AM | Süper Lig | 65% | 63% | 66% |
| Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice 7:15 AM | Ekstraklasa | 68% | 62% | 71% |
| SV Darmstadt 98 v FC Magdeburg 8:00 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 76% | 77% | 75% |
| FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha Berlin 8:00 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 72% | 70% | 73% |
| VfL Wolfsburg v VfL Osnabrück 8:00 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 79% | 81% | 78% |
| Chelsea v Manchester United 8:30 AM | Premier League | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| Lincoln v Birmingham 8:30 AM | Championship | 68% | 72% | 66% |
| Norwich v Watford 8:30 AM | Championship | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Stoke City v Preston 8:30 AM | Championship | 70% | 73% | 69% |
| Grimsby v York 8:30 AM | League Two | 73% | 71% | 73% |
| Port Vale v Rochdale 8:30 AM | League Two | 69% | 70% | 69% |
| Bradford v Huddersfield 8:30 AM | League One | 66% | 59% | 69% |
| Leyton Orient v Cambridge United 8:30 AM | League One | 67% | 63% | 69% |
| Plymouth v Reading 8:30 AM | League One | 72% | 67% | 75% |
| Annecy v Montpellier 9:00 AM | Ligue 2 | 66% | 61% | 69% |
| Reims v Sochaux 9:00 AM | Ligue 2 | 74% | 74% | – |
| Real Sociedad II v Girona 9:00 AM | Segunda División | 74% | 77% | 72% |
| Levante v Atletico Madrid 9:00 AM | La Liga | 74% | 73% | 75% |
| Kocaelispor v Rizespor 9:00 AM | Süper Lig | 69% | 69% | 69% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
PSV Eindhoven v Willem II — 86%
Eredivisie · 1:45 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 3 of PSV Eindhoven's last 5 games and 3 of Willem II's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. PSV Eindhoven sit 3rd and Willem II 18th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. The bookmakers (88%) are keener than our model alone (83%).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Fateh — 84%
Pro League · 2:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 5 games and 5 of Al-Fateh's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit 3rd and Al-Fateh 16th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (85%) and the bookmakers (84%) agree.
Barcelona v Alaves — 83%
La Liga · 4:00 PM ET. Barcelona games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Alaves games in 2 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Barcelona sit 1st and Alaves 7th in a 20-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. The bookmakers (84%) are keener than our model alone (79%).
Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart — 81%
Bundesliga · 10:30 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 5 games and 3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Bayer Leverkusen sit 4th and VfB Stuttgart 15th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (79%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard — 80%
Eredivisie · 11:30 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Feyenoord's last 5 games and 4 of Fortuna Sittard's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Feyenoord sit 1st and Fortuna Sittard 6th in a 18-team table. The bookmakers (83%) are keener than our model alone (74%).
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Deportivo Riestra v Talleres Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina, 4:00 PM ET) — 57%. In recent matches, Deportivo Riestra have seen a goal before the break 1 times in 5, Talleres Cordoba 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Deportivo Riestra sit 13th and Talleres Cordoba 15th in a 15-team table. Our model (54%) and the bookmakers (59%) agree.
- Velez Sarsfield v San Lorenzo (Liga Profesional Argentina, 6:15 PM ET) — 60%. In recent matches, Velez Sarsfield have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, San Lorenzo 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Velez Sarsfield sit 2nd and San Lorenzo 9th in a 15-team table. Our model (58%) and the bookmakers (61%) agree.
- Kyoto Sanga v Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League, 1:00 AM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, Kyoto Sanga have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Shimizu S-pulse 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Kyoto Sanga sit 16th and Shimizu S-pulse 13th in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (66%) are keener than our model alone (56%).
- Sudtirol v Cesena (Serie B, 10:00 AM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, Sudtirol have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Cesena 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Sudtirol sit 7th and Cesena 11th in a 20-team table. Our model (60%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Guingamp v Saint Etienne — model 83%, market 71%.
- Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund — model 71%, market 83%.
- Milton Keynes Dons v Doncaster — model 61%, market 72%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Italiano v Villa Dalmine (2:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 81% | 1.4 |
| Benfica B v Chaves (2:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 81% | 1.44 |
| IFK Norrkoping v Ostersunds FK (8:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 80% | 1.44 |
| Legia Warszawa II v Resovia Rzeszów (7:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 80% | 1.44 |
| Petrolul Ploiesti v CFR 1907 Cluj (1:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 82% | 1.47 |
| Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo (11:15 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.4 |
| Brickfield Rangers v Bala Town (10:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 80% | 1.4 |
| Tiszakecske FC v Fehérvár FC (10:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 78% | 1.4 |
| Résidence Walferdange v Wiltz (1:00 PM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 1.4 |
| Suzhou Dongwu v Yanbian Longding (2:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.37 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Minija to win — Minija v Atmosfera (8:00 AM ET).
- Middlesbrough to win — Middlesbrough v Charlton (11:00 AM ET).
- United Nordic to win — United Nordic v GIF Sundsvall (10:00 AM ET).
- Tychy 71 to win — Tychy 71 v Lechia Zielona Góra (10:00 AM ET).
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win — Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (1:00 AM ET).
- Aldershot Town to win — Aldershot Town v Gateshead (11:00 AM ET).
- Orijent 1919 to score — Orijent 1919 v Vukovar (9:00 AM ET), model 85%.
- Celta de Vigo II to score — Celta de Vigo II v Cordoba (1:30 PM ET), model 82%.
- Apollon Limassol to score — Apollon Limassol v Pafos (11:00 AM ET), model 82%.
- Lorient to score — Lorient v Stade Brestois 29 (3:45 PM ET), model 82%.
- Fleetwood Town to score — Fleetwood Town v Bristol Rovers (11:00 AM ET), model 82%.
- Lokomotiv Kyiv to score — Lokomotiv Kyiv v Inhulets (5:30 AM ET), model 80%.
- Kocaelispor to score — Kocaelispor v Rizespor (9:00 AM ET), model 81%.
- Zhenys to score — Zhenys v Kaisar (6:00 AM ET), model 83%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.