Our model has rated all 192 matches on Thursday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm 10:35 AM | Pro League | 70% | 72% | 69% |
| Hammarby FF v Sirius 1:30 PM | Allsvenskan | 73% | 69% | 75% |
| Frosinone v Lecce 1:30 PM | Serie A | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| Kalmar FF v Gais 2:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 67% | 69% | 66% |
| Orgryte IS v Mjallby AIF 2:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 68% | 62% | 71% |
| Al-Nassr v Al Kholood 2:00 PM | Pro League | 79% | 81% | 78% |
| Al Riyadh v Al-Qadisiyah FC 2:00 PM | Pro League | 76% | 75% | 77% |
| Atletico Calatayud v Osasuna 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 83% | 75% | 86% |
| Atlético Baleares v Eldense 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 71% | 76% | 69% |
| Lebrijana v Getafe 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 83% | 72% | 88% |
| SS Reyes v CD Coria 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 68% | 73% | 66% |
| Antequera v Águilas 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 69% | 75% | 66% |
| Conquense v Castellón 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 72% | 71% | 72% |
| Guijuelo v Sporting Gijon 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| Laredo v Burgos 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 71% | 75% | 69% |
| Real Ávila v Unionistas de Salamanca 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 69% | 71% | 69% |
| Varea v FC Andorra 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 69% | 69% | – |
| Fiorentina v Atalanta 3:45 PM | Serie A | 75% | 78% | 73% |
| Everton v Newcastle 3:45 PM | League Cup | 71% | 70% | 71% |
| Auriense v Deportivo La Coruna 4:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 72% | 72% | – |
| Ribadesella CF v Racing Santander 4:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 80% | 80% | – |
| Hortaleza v Sevilla 4:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 72% | 72% | – |
| Prat v Athletic Club 4:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 85% | 79% | 88% |
| Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro 6:30 PM | Serie A | 69% | 65% | 71% |
| Coritiba v Vitoria 6:30 PM | Serie A | 62% | 62% | – |
| Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo 7:00 PM | Serie A | 68% | 59% | 72% |
| Gremio v Atletico Paranaense 8:30 PM | Serie A | 74% | 74% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Prat v Athletic Club — 85%
Copa del Rey · 4:00 PM ET. The bookmakers (88%) are keener than our model alone (79%).
Lebrijana v Getafe — 83%
Copa del Rey · 2:00 PM ET. The bookmakers (88%) are keener than our model alone (72%).
Atletico Calatayud v Osasuna — 83%
Copa del Rey · 2:00 PM ET. The bookmakers (86%) are keener than our model alone (75%).
Al-Nassr v Al Kholood — 79%
Pro League · 2:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Al-Nassr have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Al Kholood 4 times in 5. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Al-Nassr sit 2nd and Al Kholood 9th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Frosinone v Lecce — 78%
Serie A · 1:30 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of Frosinone's last 5 games and 5 of Lecce's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Frosinone sit 7th and Lecce 14th in a 20-team table. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Kalmar FF v Gais (Allsvenskan, 2:00 PM ET) — 67%. In recent matches, Kalmar FF have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Gais 4 times in 5. Their last 3 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Kalmar FF sit 13th and Gais 11th in a 16-team table. Our model (69%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
- Orgryte IS v Mjallby AIF (Allsvenskan, 2:00 PM ET) — 68%. In recent matches, Orgryte IS have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Mjallby AIF 1 times in 5. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Orgryte IS sit 15th and Mjallby AIF 12th in a 16-team table. The bookmakers (71%) are keener than our model alone (62%).
- SS Reyes v CD Coria (Copa del Rey, 2:00 PM ET) — 68%. In recent matches, SS Reyes have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, CD Coria 4 times in 5. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Our model (73%) is keener than the bookmakers (66%).
- Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo (Serie A, 7:00 PM ET) — 68%. In recent matches, Vasco DA Gama have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Flamengo 1 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Vasco DA Gama sit 13th and Flamengo 1st in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (72%) are keener than our model alone (59%).
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Lebrijana v Getafe — model 72%, market 88%.
- Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo — model 59%, market 72%.
- Atletico Calatayud v Osasuna — model 75%, market 86%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Future FC v Al Ahly (10:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.36 |
| Inter Turku v HJK Helsinki (12:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.38 |
| Sporting Cristal v Alianza Lima (4:30 PM ET) | Home or draw | 78% | 1.44 |
| Godoy Cruz Res. v Atlético Tucumán Res. (2:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 78% | 1.44 |
| Volos NFC v Atromitos (12:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.42 |
| Sparta Praha W v Torreense W (1:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 75% | 1.44 |
| Everton v Newcastle (3:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 72% | 1.38 |
| Baltika v Zenit (2:45 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.4 |
| Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro (6:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.44 |
| Gangwon FC v Kuching FA (6:00 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.38 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Pyramids FC to win — Pyramids FC v Wadi Degla (1:00 PM ET).
- Al-Nassr to win — Al-Nassr v Al Kholood (2:00 PM ET).
- Sturm Graz to win — Austria Lustenau v Sturm Graz (1:00 PM ET).
- FC Copenhagen to win — Aarhus Fremad v FC Copenhagen (8:30 AM ET).
- ACV to score — ACV v AFC Amsterdam (3:00 PM ET), model 83%.
- Team to score — Team v Mega Sport (8:30 AM ET), model 82%.
- Sporting Cristal to score — Sporting Cristal v Alianza Lima (4:30 PM ET), model 81%.
- Stade Tunisien to score — Stade Tunisien v ES Zarzis (9:30 AM ET), model 81%.
- Orgryte IS to score — Orgryte IS v Mjallby AIF (2:00 PM ET), model 80%.
- Nosta to score — Nosta v Izhevsk (5:00 AM ET), model 79%.
- Coritiba to score — Coritiba v Vitoria (6:30 PM ET), model 76%.
- Namungo to score — Namungo v Polisi Tanzania (12:00 PM ET), model 77%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.