Our model has rated all 512 matches on Wednesday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg 1:00 PM | DFB Pokal | 78% | 79% | 78% |
| SSV Jeddeloh v Hertha Berlin 1:00 PM | DFB Pokal | 85% | 80% | 88% |
| SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart 1:00 PM | DFB Pokal | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| Dynamo Dresden v FC Schalke 04 1:00 PM | DFB Pokal | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| AC Milan v Bologna 1:30 PM | Serie A | 70% | 68% | 71% |
| Parma v Udinese 1:30 PM | Serie A | 68% | 72% | 65% |
| Venezia v Inter 1:30 PM | Serie A | 81% | 83% | 79% |
| IF Brommapojkarna v BK Hacken 2:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 73% | 71% | 75% |
| Degerfors IF v Vasteras SK FK 2:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 68% | 67% | 69% |
| IFK Goteborg v Djurgardens IF 2:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Halmstad v Malmo FF 2:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Pisa v Palermo 2:00 PM | Serie B | 73% | 76% | 71% |
| Anaitasuna v Alaves 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 81% | 74% | 85% |
| Coruxo v Zamora 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 67% | 68% | 66% |
| Pamplona v Eibar 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 77% | 74% | 78% |
| Peña Sport v Huesca 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 68% | 71% | 66% |
| Poblense v AD Ceuta FC 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| Portugalete v Real Unión 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 68% | 69% | 67% |
| Tarancón v Levante 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 79% | 77% | 81% |
| Utebo v Sabadell 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 70% | 68% | 71% |
| Carrarese v Arezzo 3:00 PM | Serie B | 64% | 60% | 66% |
| Juve Stabia v Hellas Verona 3:00 PM | Serie B | 71% | 73% | 69% |
| Alcoyano v Mallorca 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 70% | 68% | 71% |
| Amorebieta v UD Logroñés 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 72% | 73% | 71% |
| Badajoz v Tenerife 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 71% | 70% | 71% |
| Covadonga v Valladolid 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 76% | 77% | 75% |
| Mijas Las Lagunas v Real Jaén 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 73% | 76% | 71% |
| Numancia v Oviedo 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 68% | 71% | 67% |
| Calvo Sotelo v Albacete 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 73% | 72% | 73% |
| Trival Valderas v Leganes 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 68% | 68% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
SSV Jeddeloh v Hertha Berlin — 85%
DFB Pokal · 1:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of SSV Jeddeloh's last 5 games and 2 of Hertha Berlin's last 5. The bookmakers (88%) are keener than our model alone (80%).
Bayern Munich v FC Magdeburg — 85%
DFB Pokal · 3:45 PM ET. In recent matches, Bayern Munich have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, FC Magdeburg 5 times in 5. Our model (82%) and the bookmakers (86%) agree.
Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati — 82%
Major League Soccer · 7:30 PM ET. Inter Miami games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and FC Cincinnati games in 4 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Inter Miami sit 2nd and FC Cincinnati 7th in a 15-team table. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (83%) agree.
Bayer Leverkusen v FC Nurnberg — 81%
DFB Pokal · 3:45 PM ET. Bayer Leverkusen games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and FC Nurnberg games in 3 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Our model (79%) and the bookmakers (83%) agree.
Anaitasuna v Alaves — 81%
Copa del Rey · 2:00 PM ET. The bookmakers (85%) are keener than our model alone (74%).
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Carrarese v Arezzo (Serie B, 3:00 PM ET) — 64%. In recent matches, Carrarese have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Arezzo 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Carrarese sit 17th and Arezzo 12th in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (66%) are keener than our model alone (60%).
- Fluminense v Internacional (Serie A, 6:30 PM ET) — 65%. In recent matches, Fluminense have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Internacional 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Fluminense sit 5th and Internacional 16th in a 20-team table. Our model (63%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
- Reddis v Barakaldo (Copa del Rey, 3:30 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Reddis have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Barakaldo 2 times in 5. Our model (68%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
- Genoa v Juventus (Serie A, 3:45 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Genoa have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Juventus 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Genoa sit 16th and Juventus 7th in a 20-team table. Our model (66%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Navalcarnero v Real Betis — model 73%, market 84%.
- Anaitasuna v Alaves — model 74%, market 85%.
- Salamanca UDS v Celta Vigo — model 71%, market 79%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK v AEK Athens FC (2:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.42 |
| Panathinaikos v Aris Thessalonikis (11:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.42 |
| Jesenice v Bistrica (9:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 81% | 1.4 |
| AC Oulu v VPS (12:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 79% | 1.44 |
| Pors Grenland v Kongsvinger (1:00 PM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 1.39 |
| Skenderbeu Korce v Laci (1:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.37 |
| Parma v Udinese (1:30 PM ET) | Either team wins | 75% | 1.4 |
| Tromso v Haugesund (2:00 PM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 1.4 |
| Prato v Ternana (9:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.4 |
| Parma v Udinese (1:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.42 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- AC Horsens to win — Brabrand v AC Horsens (8:30 AM ET).
- FC Nordsjaelland to win — Esbjerg v FC Nordsjaelland (12:00 PM ET).
- Suwon FMC W to win — Suwon FMC W v Boeun Sangmu W (6:00 AM ET).
- Charlotte to win — Charlotte v CF Montreal (7:30 PM ET).
- Inter to win — Venezia v Inter (1:30 PM ET).
- 1899 Hoffenheim to win — Holstein Kiel v 1899 Hoffenheim (3:45 PM ET).
- Krško to score — Krško v Dravinja (12:00 PM ET), model 84%.
- ST Johnstone to score — ST Johnstone v Motherwell (3:45 PM ET), model 80%.
- Düzcespor to score — Düzcespor v Isparta 32 Spor (6:30 AM ET), model 82%.
- Persib Bandung to score — Persib Bandung v Melbourne Victory (8:15 AM ET), model 78%.
- Central Córdoba SdE Res. to score — Central Córdoba SdE Res. v Independiente Riva. Res. (6:00 PM ET), model 79%.
- Skenderbeu Korce to score — Skenderbeu Korce v Laci (1:30 PM ET), model 78%.
- Znicz Pruszków to score — Znicz Pruszków v Ruch Chorzów (12:30 PM ET), model 79%.
- Olimpija Ljubljana to score — Olimpija Ljubljana v Celje (2:30 PM ET), model 76%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.