Our model has rated all 318 matches on Tuesday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abha v Al-Faisaly FC 8:40 AM | Pro League | 68% | 68% | – |
| Vfl Bochum v FSV Mainz 05 1:00 PM | DFB Pokal | 77% | 81% | 75% |
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v FC Augsburg 1:00 PM | DFB Pokal | 80% | 84% | 78% |
| Hamburger SV v Eintracht Frankfurt 1:00 PM | DFB Pokal | 77% | 81% | 75% |
| Rot-weiss Essen v RB Leipzig 1:00 PM | DFB Pokal | 79% | 78% | 79% |
| Sassuolo v Lazio 1:30 PM | Serie A | 75% | 79% | 72% |
| Cuarte v Girona 1:30 PM | Copa del Rey | 74% | 74% | 73% |
| AIK Stockholm v IF Elfsborg 2:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 71% | 72% | 71% |
| Benevento v Catanzaro 2:00 PM | Serie B | 74% | 78% | 72% |
| Calamocha v Europa Fc 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 70% | 69% | 71% |
| Pinatar v Elche 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 76% | 76% | – |
| Sestao River v Espanyol 2:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 69% | 69% | – |
| Castellonense v Almeria 2:45 PM | Copa del Rey | 72% | 71% | 72% |
| Ascoli v Sampdoria 3:00 PM | Serie B | 72% | 76% | 69% |
| Cesena v Empoli 3:00 PM | Serie B | 66% | 62% | 69% |
| Virtus Entella v Avellino 3:00 PM | Serie B | 67% | 71% | 65% |
| Vicenza Virtus v Modena 3:00 PM | Serie B | 71% | 72% | 71% |
| Mantova v Cremonese 3:00 PM | Serie B | 68% | 71% | 66% |
| Padova v Sudtirol 3:00 PM | Serie B | 62% | 59% | 65% |
| Atlético Tordesillas v Mirandes 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 70% | 70% | – |
| Ciudad de Lucena v Rayo Majadahonda 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 69% | 70% | 69% |
| Gimnástica Segoviana v Cultural Leonesa 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 71% | 69% | 73% |
| Llanera v Ponferradina 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 73% | 69% | 75% |
| RSD Alcalá v Las Palmas 3:00 PM | Copa del Rey | 72% | 72% | – |
| Don Benito v Extremadura 1924 3:30 PM | Copa del Rey | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Manresa v Sant Andreu 3:30 PM | Copa del Rey | 66% | 66% | – |
| AS Roma v Cagliari 3:45 PM | Serie A | 70% | 65% | 73% |
| Torino v como 3:45 PM | Serie A | 73% | 74% | 72% |
| Leicester v Wigan 3:45 PM | League One | 74% | 73% | 75% |
| Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley 3:45 PM | League One | 72% | 71% | 73% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v FC Augsburg — 80%
DFB Pokal · 1:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's last 5 games and 4 of FC Augsburg's last 5. Our model (84%) is keener than the bookmakers (78%).
Rot-weiss Essen v RB Leipzig — 79%
DFB Pokal · 1:00 PM ET. Rot-weiss Essen games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and RB Leipzig games in 3 of 5. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Karlsruher SC — 78%
DFB Pokal · 3:45 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 5 games and 5 of Karlsruher SC's last 5. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
Vfl Bochum v FSV Mainz 05 — 77%
DFB Pokal · 1:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Vfl Bochum have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, FSV Mainz 05 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Our model (81%) is keener than the bookmakers (75%).
Hamburger SV v Eintracht Frankfurt — 77%
DFB Pokal · 1:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Hamburger SV have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Eintracht Frankfurt 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Our model (81%) is keener than the bookmakers (75%).
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Padova v Sudtirol (Serie B, 3:00 PM ET) — 62%. In recent matches, Padova have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Sudtirol 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Padova sit 9th and Sudtirol 7th in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (65%) are keener than our model alone (59%).
- Argentinos JRS v Independ. Rivadavia (Liga Profesional Argentina, 6:00 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Argentinos JRS have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Independ. Rivadavia 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Argentinos JRS sit 2nd and Independ. Rivadavia 9th in a 15-team table. Our model (71%) is keener than the bookmakers (62%).
- Tudelano v Zaragoza (Copa del Rey, 4:00 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Tudelano have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Zaragoza 2 times in 5. Our model (68%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
- Cesena v Empoli (Serie B, 3:00 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Cesena have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Empoli 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Cesena sit 15th and Empoli 17th in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (69%) are keener than our model alone (62%).
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Fleetwood Town v Arsenal — model 70%, market 79%.
- Oxford United v Stockport County — model 64%, market 72%.
- Bradford v Peterborough — model 62%, market 71%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wealdstone v Solihull Moors (3:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 82% | 1.42 |
| Beijing Guoan v Jeonbuk Motors (8:15 AM ET) | Home or draw | 83% | 1.43 |
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v FC Augsburg (1:00 PM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 1.4 |
| Virtus Entella v Avellino (3:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.42 |
| Cucuta v Águilas Doradas (7:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.39 |
| Arda Kardzhali v Levski Sofia (1:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.4 |
| Padova v Sudtirol (3:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.4 |
| Penarol v Atletico Torque (6:30 PM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.4 |
| Alvechurch v Anstey Nomads (3:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 77% | 1.44 |
| Koper v Maribor (2:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Muras United to win — Muras United v Abdish-Ata (9:00 AM ET).
- Truro City to win — Truro City v Slough Town (3:45 PM ET).
- Clydebank to win — Clydebank v Celtic II (3:45 PM ET).
- Tabor Sežana to win — Tabor Sežana v Slovan Ljubljana (12:00 PM ET).
- Real Bedford to win — Real Bedford v Stourbridge (3:45 PM ET).
- FC Augsburg to win — SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v FC Augsburg (1:00 PM ET).
- Argentinos JRS to score — Argentinos JRS v Independ. Rivadavia (6:00 PM ET), model 81%.
- Penarol to score — Penarol v Atletico Torque (6:30 PM ET), model 79%.
- Pazarspor to score — Pazarspor v Aliağa FAŞ (6:30 AM ET), model 82%.
- Bedford Town to score — Bedford Town v Hednesford Town (3:45 PM ET), model 80%.
- Daejeon Citizen to score — Daejeon Citizen v Vissel Kobe (6:00 AM ET), model 78%.
- Radomlje to score — Radomlje v Mura (12:00 PM ET), model 80%.
- Ceara to score — Ceara v Goias (7:00 PM ET), model 76%.
- Dover to score — Dover v Chelmsford City (3:45 PM ET), model 77%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.