Here are The Soccer Expert model's predictions for Monday, October 26: first-half goal ratings for 160 fixtures, the games where an early goal looks most likely, and the published picks it likes best.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş v Başakşehir 12:00 PM | Süper Lig | 73% | 66% | 78% |
| Rizespor v Trabzonspor 12:00 PM | Süper Lig | 73% | 74% | 73% |
| FC Copenhagen v Odense 2:00 PM | Superliga | 76% | 78% | 75% |
| Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe 2:30 PM | Süper Lig | 76% | 77% | 75% |
| Santa Clara v Benfica 2:45 PM | Primeira Liga | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| Paris Saint Germain v Lyon 3:30 PM | Ligue 1 | 76% | 73% | 78% |
| FC Andorra v Burgos 3:30 PM | Segunda División | 64% | 64% | – |
| Boulogne v Reims 3:45 PM | Ligue 2 | 67% | 71% | 65% |
| Montpellier v RED Star FC 93 3:45 PM | Ligue 2 | 69% | 68% | 69% |
| Walsall v Salford City 4:00 PM | League Two | 68% | 64% | 71% |
| Sevilla v Osasuna 4:00 PM | La Liga | 62% | 59% | 65% |
| Union Santa Fe v Estudiantes L.P. 6:00 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 62% | 59% | 65% |
| Coritiba v Gremio 6:30 PM | Serie A | 68% | 67% | 69% |
| Flamengo v Atletico-MG 7:00 PM | Serie A | 68% | 59% | 73% |
| Instituto Cordoba v Deportivo Riestra 8:15 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 58% | 58% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
FC Copenhagen v Odense — 76%
Superliga · 2:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 3 of FC Copenhagen's last 5 games and 4 of Odense's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. FC Copenhagen sit 2nd and Odense 7th in a 12-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
Paris Saint Germain v Lyon — 76%
Ligue 1 · 3:30 PM ET. Paris Saint Germain games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Lyon games in 5 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Paris Saint Germain sit 5th and Lyon 4th in a 18-team table. The bookmakers (78%) are keener than our model alone (73%).
Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe — 76%
Süper Lig · 2:30 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Galatasaray's last 5 games and 4 of Fenerbahçe's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Galatasaray sit 2nd and Fenerbahçe 3rd in a 18-team table. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
Beşiktaş v Başakşehir — 73%
Süper Lig · 12:00 PM ET. Beşiktaş games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Başakşehir games in 4 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Beşiktaş sit 6th and Başakşehir 12th in a 18-team table. The bookmakers (78%) are keener than our model alone (66%).
Rizespor v Trabzonspor — 73%
Süper Lig · 12:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Rizespor's last 5 games and 4 of Trabzonspor's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Rizespor sit 13th and Trabzonspor 4th in a 18-team table. Our model (74%) and the bookmakers (73%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Union Santa Fe v Estudiantes L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina, 6:00 PM ET) — 62%. In recent matches, Union Santa Fe have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Estudiantes L.P. 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Union Santa Fe sit 11th and Estudiantes L.P. 10th in a 15-team table. The bookmakers (65%) are keener than our model alone (59%).
- Sevilla v Osasuna (La Liga, 4:00 PM ET) — 62%. In recent matches, Sevilla have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Osasuna 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Sevilla sit 6th and Osasuna 12th in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (65%) are keener than our model alone (59%).
- Boulogne v Reims (Ligue 2, 3:45 PM ET) — 67%. In recent matches, Boulogne have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Reims 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Boulogne sit 14th and Reims 4th in a 18-team table. Our model (71%) is keener than the bookmakers (65%).
- Flamengo v Atletico-MG (Serie A, 7:00 PM ET) — 68%. In recent matches, Flamengo have seen a goal before the break 1 times in 5, Atletico-MG 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Flamengo sit 2nd and Atletico-MG 6th in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (73%) are keener than our model alone (59%).
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Flamengo v Atletico-MG — model 59%, market 73%.
- Beşiktaş v Başakşehir — model 66%, market 78%.
- Walsall v Salford City — model 64%, market 71%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla v Osasuna (4:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.4 |
| Union Santa Fe v Estudiantes L.P. (6:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.42 |
| Boulogne v Reims (3:45 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.4 |
| Blackburn Rovers U21 v West Bromwich Albion U21 (3:00 PM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 1.38 |
| Coritiba v Gremio (6:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.36 |
| Al Bukayriyah v Hajer (11:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 |
| Resistencia v Benjamín Aceval (3:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 73% | 1.4 |
| Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Beer Sheva (1:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 73% | 1.44 |
| AEK Larnaca v Omonia Nicosia (1:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.36 |
| Montpellier v RED Star FC 93 (3:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 72% | 1.44 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Atlas W to win — Atlas W v Puebla W (7:00 PM ET).
- FC Copenhagen to win — FC Copenhagen v Odense (2:00 PM ET).
- Riga to win — Grobiņa v Riga (12:00 PM ET).
- Warta Poznań to score — Warta Poznań v ŁKS Łódź (1:00 PM ET), model 80%.
- CSKA Sofia to score — CSKA Sofia v Ludogorets (1:30 PM ET), model 76%.
- Mladost Ždralovi to score — Mladost Ždralovi v Jadran LP (9:00 AM ET), model 77%.
- Jaguares to score — Jaguares v Llaneros (7:00 PM ET), model 76%.
- Union Santa Fe to score — Union Santa Fe v Estudiantes L.P. (6:00 PM ET), model 75%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.