1151 matches, one model. These are our first-half goal ratings and best picks for Sunday, October 25 — with the reasoning behind the strongest spots.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC v Adelaide United 12:00 AM | A-League | 75% | 78% | 72% |
| Nagoya Grampus v Yokohama F. Marinos 1:00 AM | J1 League | 70% | 68% | 71% |
| Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba 2:00 AM | J1 League | 71% | 70% | 72% |
| Urawa v V-varen Nagasaki 2:00 AM | J1 League | 71% | 70% | 71% |
| FC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock 3:00 AM | J1 League | 72% | 71% | 72% |
| Kawasaki Frontale v Fagiano Okayama 3:00 AM | J1 League | 70% | 68% | 71% |
| Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior 7:15 AM | Eredivisie | 76% | 80% | 73% |
| Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków 7:15 AM | Ekstraklasa | 72% | 67% | 75% |
| Inter v Fiorentina 7:30 AM | Serie A | 78% | 81% | 77% |
| Hibernian v Celtic 8:00 AM | Premiership | 78% | 83% | 75% |
| Genk v Standard Liege 8:30 AM | Jupiler Pro League | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Eintracht Braunschweig v Hannover 96 8:30 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 74% | 74% | 75% |
| Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden 8:30 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 74% | 76% | 73% |
| VfL Osnabrück v SpVgg Greuther Furth 8:30 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 75% | 78% | 73% |
| Gais v IFK Goteborg 9:00 AM | Allsvenskan | 69% | 66% | 71% |
| FC Midtjylland v Lyngby 9:00 AM | Superliga | 77% | 76% | 77% |
| Silkeborg v FC Nordsjaelland 9:00 AM | Superliga | 76% | 75% | 77% |
| FC Thun v FC Lugano 9:00 AM | Super League | 80% | 85% | 77% |
| Sabadell v Tenerife 9:00 AM | Segunda División | 63% | 66% | 61% |
| Athletic Club v Getafe 9:00 AM | La Liga | 64% | 66% | 62% |
| Konyaspor v Gençlerbirliği S.K. 9:00 AM | Süper Lig | 66% | 66% | 66% |
| Viking v Tromso 9:30 AM | Eliteserien | 78% | 80% | 77% |
| NEC Nijmegen v Groningen 9:30 AM | Eredivisie | 78% | 79% | 77% |
| PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord 9:30 AM | Eredivisie | 80% | 79% | 81% |
| Sturm Graz v Ried 9:30 AM | Bundesliga | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Jagiellonia v Wisla Plock 9:45 AM | Ekstraklasa | 71% | 68% | 72% |
| Atalanta v Frosinone 10:00 AM | Serie A | 77% | 75% | 78% |
| Genoa v Venezia 10:00 AM | Serie A | 69% | 70% | 69% |
| Monaco v Lille 10:00 AM | Ligue 1 | 69% | 70% | 69% |
| Motherwell v Heart Of Midlothian 10:00 AM | Premiership | 74% | 77% | 72% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Barcelona v Real Madrid — 82%
La Liga · 4:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Barcelona have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Real Madrid 3 times in 5. Barcelona sit 1st and Real Madrid 3rd in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (84%) are keener than our model alone (79%).
SC Freiburg v Bayern Munich — 80%
Bundesliga · 12:30 PM ET. In recent matches, SC Freiburg have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Bayern Munich 5 times in 5. SC Freiburg sit 3rd and Bayern Munich 2nd in a 18-team table. The bookmakers (83%) are keener than our model alone (77%).
PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord — 80%
Eredivisie · 9:30 AM ET. In recent matches, PSV Eindhoven have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Feyenoord 4 times in 5. PSV Eindhoven sit 3rd and Feyenoord 1st in a 18-team table. Our model (79%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
FC Thun v FC Lugano — 80%
Super League · 9:00 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 3 of FC Thun's last 5 games and 5 of FC Lugano's last 5. FC Thun sit 9th and FC Lugano 1st in a 12-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (85%) is keener than the bookmakers (77%).
Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax — 79%
Eredivisie · 11:45 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 5 games and 4 of Ajax's last 5. Sparta Rotterdam sit 14th and Ajax 4th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Independiente v Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina, 4:00 PM ET) — 61%. In recent matches, Independiente have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Boca Juniors 5 times in 5. Independiente sit 8th and Boca Juniors 3rd in a 15-team table. Our model (60%) and the bookmakers (62%) agree.
- Sabadell v Tenerife (Segunda División, 9:00 AM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, Sabadell have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Tenerife 5 times in 5. Sabadell sit 10th and Tenerife 14th in a 22-team table. Our model (66%) is keener than the bookmakers (61%).
- Aldosivi v Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina, 1:45 PM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, Aldosivi have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Belgrano Cordoba 3 times in 5. Aldosivi sit 15th and Belgrano Cordoba 4th in a 15-team table. Our model (64%) and the bookmakers (62%) agree.
- Athletic Club v Getafe (La Liga, 9:00 AM ET) — 64%. In recent matches, Athletic Club have seen a goal before the break 1 times in 5, Getafe 3 times in 5. Athletic Club sit 15th and Getafe 16th in a 20-team table. Our model (66%) and the bookmakers (62%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Udinese v AC Milan — model 79%, market 69%.
- Angers v Lorient — model 75%, market 66%.
- Hellas Verona v Pisa — model 77%, market 69%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gainare Tottori v Kochi United (12:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 86% | 1.4 |
| Cjarlins Muzane v Virtus Bolzano (10:00 AM ET) | Home win | 82% | 1.42 |
| Sunderland v Leeds (12:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.38 |
| Sambiase v Nissa (9:30 AM ET) | Home or draw | 81% | 1.44 |
| Viitorul Şelimbăr v ASA Targu Mures (5:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.4 |
| CS Afumati v CSA Steaua Bucureşti (5:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 80% | 1.47 |
| Emelec v Guayaquil City FC (3:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.39 |
| FC Basel 1893 v Grasshoppers (11:30 AM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 1.39 |
| Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax (11:45 AM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 1.37 |
| Athletic Club v Getafe (9:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.47 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- FC Astana to win — FC Astana v Kaisar (10:00 AM ET).
- Chelsea W to win — Crystal Palace W v Chelsea W (8:00 AM ET).
- Ajax to win — Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax (11:45 AM ET).
- Nykobing FC to win — Nykobing FC v Thisted FC (9:00 AM ET).
- Inter to win — Inter v Fiorentina (7:30 AM ET).
- Chindia Targoviste to win — Chindia Targoviste v CSM Satu Mare (5:00 AM ET).
- Sambiase to score — Sambiase v Nissa (9:30 AM ET), model 86%.
- Singida Black Stars to score — Singida Black Stars v Tusker (12:00 PM ET), model 85%.
- Slavia Mozyr to score — Slavia Mozyr v Torpedo Zhodino (8:00 AM ET), model 85%.
- Valletta FC to score — Valletta FC v Hamrun Spartans (10:30 AM ET), model 84%.
- Biwako Shiga to score — Biwako Shiga v Kanazawa (1:00 AM ET), model 81%.
- AEL to score — AEL v Aris (1:00 PM ET), model 83%.
- CA Estudiantes to score — CA Estudiantes v Los Andes (2:30 PM ET), model 80%.
- Cheongju to score — Cheongju v Yongin City (3:30 AM ET), model 80%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.