Our model has rated all 1679 matches on Saturday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets v Macarthur 12:00 AM | A-League | 76% | 75% | 77% |
| FC Anyang v Jeonbuk Motors 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 67% | 66% | 69% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 v Gwangju FC 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 69% | 68% | 69% |
| Sangju Sangmu FC v Daejeon Citizen 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 68% | 64% | 71% |
| Incheon United v Jeju United FC 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 64% | 64% | 65% |
| FC Seoul v Gangwon FC 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 67% | 67% | 66% |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC v Pohang Steelers 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 68% | 64% | 71% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse 1:00 AM | J1 League | 70% | 64% | 73% |
| Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol 2:00 AM | J1 League | 72% | 72% | 71% |
| Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka 2:00 AM | J1 League | 57% | 54% | 59% |
| Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia 2:00 AM | J1 League | 64% | 63% | 65% |
| Western Sydney v Auckland 2:00 AM | A-League | 70% | 70% | 71% |
| Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Sanga 3:00 AM | J1 League | 69% | 62% | 73% |
| Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City 4:40 AM | A-League | 71% | 70% | 71% |
| Piast Gliwice v Cracovia Krakow 6:15 AM | Ekstraklasa | 67% | 59% | 72% |
| Eyüpspor v Kasımpaşa 6:30 AM | Süper Lig | 68% | 72% | 66% |
| FC Heidenheim v Energie Cottbus 7:00 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 81% | 80% | 81% |
| Hertha Berlin v Arminia Bielefeld 7:00 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC 7:00 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 77% | 78% | 77% |
| Aston Villa v Manchester City 7:30 AM | Premier League | 79% | 84% | 75% |
| Charlton v Norwich 7:30 AM | Championship | 70% | 72% | 69% |
| Portsmouth v Millwall 7:30 AM | Championship | 65% | 63% | 66% |
| Sheffield Utd v Derby 7:30 AM | Championship | 72% | 73% | 71% |
| Bristol Rovers v Swindon Town 7:30 AM | League Two | 72% | 71% | 73% |
| Cheltenham v Newport County 7:30 AM | League Two | 67% | 65% | 68% |
| Northampton v Colchester 7:30 AM | League Two | 65% | 65% | – |
| Huddersfield v Wigan 7:30 AM | League One | 72% | 70% | 73% |
| Luton v Leicester 7:30 AM | League One | 74% | 74% | 75% |
| Dijon v Rodez 8:00 AM | Ligue 2 | 73% | 74% | 72% |
| Montpellier v RED Star FC 93 8:00 AM | Ligue 2 | 68% | 68% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Bodo/Glimt v Valerenga — 84%
Eliteserien · 10:00 AM ET. In recent matches, Bodo/Glimt have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Valerenga 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Bodo/Glimt sit 1st and Valerenga 11th in a 16-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (84%) and the bookmakers (84%) agree.
BSC Young Boys v FC ST. Gallen — 82%
Super League · 2:30 PM ET. BSC Young Boys games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and FC ST. Gallen games in 5 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. BSC Young Boys sit 2nd and FC ST. Gallen 4th in a 12-team table. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (83%) agree.
Rapid Vienna v Austria Lustenau — 81%
Bundesliga · 1:30 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Rapid Vienna's last 5 games and 2 of Austria Lustenau's last 5. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Rapid Vienna sit 1st and Austria Lustenau 10th in a 12-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (82%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
FC Heidenheim v Energie Cottbus — 81%
2. Bundesliga · 7:00 AM ET. In recent matches, FC Heidenheim have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Energie Cottbus 4 times in 5. FC Heidenheim sit 5th and Energie Cottbus 9th in a 18-team table. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
New York Red Bulls v Inter Miami — 80%
Major League Soccer · 5:30 PM ET. In recent matches, New York Red Bulls have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Inter Miami 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. New York Red Bulls sit 10th and Inter Miami 2nd in a 15-team table. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina, 6:15 PM ET) — 56%. In recent matches, San Lorenzo have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Newells Old Boys 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. San Lorenzo sit 9th and Newells Old Boys 6th in a 15-team table. Our model (55%) and the bookmakers (58%) agree.
- Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League, 2:00 AM ET) — 57%. In recent matches, Tokyo Verdy have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Avispa Fukuoka 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 1 time. Tokyo Verdy sit 20th and Avispa Fukuoka 18th in a 20-team table. Our model (54%) and the bookmakers (59%) agree.
- Banfield v Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina, 1:45 PM ET) — 60%. In recent matches, Banfield have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Lanus 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Banfield sit 12th and Lanus 5th in a 15-team table. The bookmakers (62%) are keener than our model alone (57%).
- Asteras Tripolis v Levadiakos (Super League 1, 12:30 PM ET) — 62%. In recent matches, Asteras Tripolis have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Levadiakos 0 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Asteras Tripolis sit 11th and Levadiakos 13th in a 14-team table. The bookmakers (65%) are keener than our model alone (58%).
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Piast Gliwice v Cracovia Krakow — model 59%, market 72%.
- Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Sanga — model 62%, market 73%.
- Leon v Toluca — model 64%, market 75%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino v Padova (9:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.38 |
| Partick v Stenhousemuir (10:00 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 84% | 1.38 |
| WSG Wattens v Grazer AK (11:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 87% | 1.47 |
| Deportes Copiapo v Deportes Santa Cruz (4:30 PM ET) | Home or draw | 82% | 1.44 |
| Fakel v Rodina Moskva (8:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.36 |
| Skanste v Smiltene (8:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.39 |
| Cherno More Varna v Septemvri Sofia (11:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.37 |
| SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV (9:30 AM ET) | Home or draw | 79% | 1.43 |
| Barrow v Forest Green (10:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 78% | 1.4 |
| Iraklis 1908 v Kifisia (12:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.4 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Şanlıurfaspor to win — Arnavutköy Belediyespor v Şanlıurfaspor (6:00 AM ET).
- Lazio to win — Lazio v Parma (2:45 PM ET).
- Kazincbarcikai to win — Kazincbarcikai v Nagykanizsai ULE (7:00 AM ET).
- Oleksandria to win — Oleksandria v Probiy Horodenka (5:00 AM ET).
- Recreativo Huelva to win — Recreativo Huelva v Antoniano (12:00 PM ET).
- Viking FK W to win — Viking FK W v Grei W (7:00 AM ET).
- Avellino to score — Avellino v Padova (9:00 AM ET), model 86%.
- 2 de Mayo to score — 2 de Mayo v Deportivo Recoleta (6:30 PM ET), model 85%.
- Cheltenham to score — Cheltenham v Newport County (7:30 AM ET), model 85%.
- Segesta Sisak to score — Segesta Sisak v Croatia Zmijavci (9:00 AM ET), model 83%.
- Borac Cacak to score — Borac Cacak v Napredak (10:00 AM ET), model 83%.
- Sagamihara to score — Sagamihara v Tochigi SC (1:00 AM ET), model 82%.
- Thespakusatsu Gunma to score — Thespakusatsu Gunma v Kamatamare Sanuki (1:00 AM ET), model 81%.
- Colegiales to score — Colegiales v Atletico DE Rafaela (7:00 PM ET), model 81%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.