Our model has rated all 453 matches on Friday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Roar FC v Perth Glory FC 5:00 AM | A-League | 70% | 72% | 69% |
| Al-Faisaly FC v Al-Nassr 9:30 AM | Pro League | 84% | 84% | – |
| Al-Ittihad FC v Al Diriyah 11:30 AM | Pro League | 75% | 77% | 73% |
| Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin 12:00 PM | Ekstraklasa | 68% | 63% | 71% |
| Vfl Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg 12:30 PM | 2. Bundesliga | 78% | 79% | 77% |
| SV Darmstadt 98 v FC St. Pauli 12:30 PM | 2. Bundesliga | 73% | 75% | 71% |
| IF Elfsborg v Malmo FF 1:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 68% | 62% | 71% |
| Vasteras SK FK v Halmstad 1:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 71% | 68% | 72% |
| Randers FC v Brondby 1:00 PM | Superliga | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor 1:00 PM | Süper Lig | 64% | 63% | 65% |
| SCR Altach v Austria Vienna 1:30 PM | Bundesliga | 72% | 76% | 69% |
| GO Ahead Eagles v Telstar 2:00 PM | Eredivisie | 76% | 74% | 77% |
| Clermont Foot v Guingamp 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 65% | 63% | 66% |
| Dunkerque v Metz 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 70% | 67% | 71% |
| Nancy v Laval 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| PAU v Grenoble 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 66% | 65% | 66% |
| Sochaux v Annecy 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 64% | 64% | 65% |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2:00 PM | Pro League | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze 2:30 PM | Ekstraklasa | 71% | 74% | 69% |
| Granada CF v Valladolid 2:30 PM | Segunda División | 68% | 73% | 65% |
| VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Monchengladbach 2:30 PM | Bundesliga | 79% | 77% | 81% |
| Empoli v Vicenza Virtus 2:30 PM | Serie B | 69% | 68% | 69% |
| Torino v Monza 2:45 PM | Serie A | 66% | 66% | 66% |
| Stade Brestois 29 v Nice 2:45 PM | Ligue 1 | 73% | 73% | 72% |
| Kortrijk v KV Mechelen 2:45 PM | Jupiler Pro League | 72% | 73% | 71% |
| Ipswich v Nottingham Forest 3:00 PM | Premier League | 71% | 70% | 71% |
| Bolton v Middlesbrough 3:00 PM | Championship | 74% | 72% | 75% |
| Alaves v Malaga 3:00 PM | La Liga | 67% | 68% | 66% |
| Vitória SC v Maritimo 3:45 PM | Primeira Liga | 63% | 57% | 66% |
| Gimnasia L.P. v Sarmiento Junin 5:00 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 62% | 59% | 65% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Monchengladbach — 79%
Bundesliga · 2:30 PM ET. VfB Stuttgart games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Borussia Monchengladbach games in 5 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. VfB Stuttgart sit 13th and Borussia Monchengladbach 18th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
Vfl Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg — 78%
2. Bundesliga · 12:30 PM ET. Vfl Bochum games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and VfL Wolfsburg games in 4 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Vfl Bochum sit 16th and VfL Wolfsburg 3rd in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (79%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
GO Ahead Eagles v Telstar — 76%
Eredivisie · 2:00 PM ET. GO Ahead Eagles games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Telstar games in 3 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. GO Ahead Eagles sit 9th and Telstar 16th in a 18-team table. Our model (74%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
Al-Ittihad FC v Al Diriyah — 75%
Pro League · 11:30 AM ET. Al-Ittihad FC games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Al Diriyah games in 3 of 5. Al-Ittihad FC sit 4th and Al Diriyah 7th in a 18-team table. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (73%) agree.
Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 75%
Pro League · 2:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Al-Qadisiyah FC sit 1st and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2nd in a 18-team table. Our model (74%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Gimnasia M. v Platense (Liga Profesional Argentina, 5:30 PM ET) — 62%. In recent matches, Gimnasia M. have seen a goal before the break 1 times in 5, Platense 4 times in 5. Their last 2 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Gimnasia M. sit 7th and Platense 13th in a 15-team table. Our model (64%) and the bookmakers (61%) agree.
- Gimnasia L.P. v Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina, 5:00 PM ET) — 62%. In recent matches, Gimnasia L.P. have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Sarmiento Junin 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Gimnasia L.P. sit 4th and Sarmiento Junin 5th in a 15-team table. The bookmakers (65%) are keener than our model alone (59%).
- Vitória SC v Maritimo (Primeira Liga, 3:45 PM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, Vitória SC have seen a goal before the break 1 times in 5, Maritimo 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 1 time. Vitória SC sit 15th and Maritimo 11th in a 18-team table. The bookmakers (66%) are keener than our model alone (57%).
- Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor (Süper Lig, 1:00 PM ET) — 64%. In recent matches, Alanyaspor have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Kocaelispor 3 times in 5. Their last 3 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Alanyaspor sit 9th and Kocaelispor 8th in a 18-team table. Our model (63%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Vitória SC v Maritimo — model 57%, market 66%.
- Granada CF v Valladolid — model 73%, market 65%.
- IF Elfsborg v Malmo FF — model 62%, market 71%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corvinul Hunedoara v Universitatea Cluj (2:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 80% | 1.47 |
| Chico v Bucaramanga (7:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.39 |
| Pineto v Gubbio (2:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.37 |
| Torpedo Moskva v Rotor Volgograd (11:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.37 |
| US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien (9:30 AM ET) | Home or draw | 76% | 1.44 |
| El Entag EL Harby v El Mansura (8:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.38 |
| US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien (9:30 AM ET) | Either team wins | 76% | 1.44 |
| Pakhtakor v Neftchi (10:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 72% | 1.4 |
| Perugia v Pescara (2:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 |
| Gimnasia M. v Platense (5:30 PM ET) | Either team wins | 72% | 1.38 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Virtus to win — Juvenes / Dogana v Virtus (3:15 PM ET).
- Chernomorets 1919 Burgas to win — Chernomorets 1919 Burgas v Sportist Svoge (9:00 AM ET).
- Linfield to win — Portadown v Linfield (2:45 PM ET).
- FC Winterthur to win — FC Winterthur v Stade Nyonnais (2:15 PM ET).
- SKU Amstetten to win — SKU Amstetten v Rapid Wien II (12:30 PM ET).
- Almaz Antey U19 to win — Almaz Antey U19 v Ural U20 (6:00 AM ET).
- Corvinul Hunedoara to score — Corvinul Hunedoara v Universitatea Cluj (2:00 PM ET), model 83%.
- Olympique Akbou to score — Olympique Akbou v CS Constantine (10:15 AM ET), model 84%.
- Granada CF to score — Granada CF v Valladolid (2:30 PM ET), model 81%.
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane to score — Jeunesse Sportive Omrane v Olympique Béja (9:30 AM ET), model 83%.
- CA Bizertin to score — CA Bizertin v ES Hammam-Sousse (9:30 AM ET), model 81%.
- SV Darmstadt 98 to score — SV Darmstadt 98 v FC St. Pauli (12:30 PM ET), model 82%.
- Ipswich to score — Ipswich v Nottingham Forest (3:00 PM ET), model 82%.
- Dinamo Zagreb U21 to score — Dinamo Zagreb U21 v HNK Cibalia (9:00 AM ET), model 79%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.