152 matches, one model. These are our first-half goal ratings and best picks for Thursday, October 22 — with the reasoning behind the strongest spots.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Hazm v Al-Fayha 9:40 AM | Pro League | 67% | 69% | 66% |
| Kairat Almaty v Panathinaikos 10:30 AM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 70% | 71% | 69% |
| Al-Fateh v Al Shabab 10:45 AM | Pro League | 73% | 71% | 75% |
| Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 77% | 79% | 75% |
| Ferencvarosi TC v Torreense 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 72% | 70% | 73% |
| Juventus v Rennes 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 72% | 71% | 72% |
| Lech Poznan v Sunderland 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 73% | 77% | 71% |
| OFI v Bayer Leverkusen 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 75% | 75% | – |
| Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer Sheva 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 74% | 72% | 75% |
| Sturm Graz v Marseille 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 73% | 73% | 72% |
| FK Crvena Zvezda v FC Copenhagen 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 73% | 75% | 72% |
| Getafe v FC Lugano 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 67% | 71% | 65% |
| FC Iberia 1999 v Mjallby AIF 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 68% | 67% | 69% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes v Universitatea Craiova 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 69% | 68% | 69% |
| FK Jablonec v Brighton 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Kauno Žalgiris v Brann 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| FC Nordsjaelland v CSKA Sofia 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| Pafos v Riga 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 70% | 69% | 71% |
| Trabzonspor v Heart Of Midlothian 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Khaleej Saihat 2:00 PM | Pro League | 77% | 78% | 77% |
| Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 76% | 77% | 75% |
| Bournemouth v AC Milan 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 71% | 72% | 71% |
| Celje v Red Bull Salzburg 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 72% | 71% | 73% |
| Celtic v Celta Vigo 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 72% | 74% | 71% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim v Lyon 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| Jagiellonia v Anderlecht 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 71% | 72% | 71% |
| Lillestrom v Real Sociedad 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 76% | 76% | – |
| Olympiakos Piraeus v Sparta Praha 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 71% | 70% | 71% |
| Omonia Nicosia v Benfica 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 74% | 71% | 75% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Khaleej Saihat — 77%
Pro League · 2:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Al Khaleej Saihat 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Al-Ahli Jeddah sit 5th and Al Khaleej Saihat 10th in a 18-team table. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen — 77%
UEFA Europa League · 12:45 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Dinamo Zagreb's last 5 games and 5 of NEC Nijmegen's last 5. Our model (79%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
Trabzonspor v Heart Of Midlothian — 77%
UEFA Europa Conference League · 12:45 PM ET. Trabzonspor games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Heart Of Midlothian games in 5 of 5. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace — 76%
UEFA Europa League · 3:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Beşiktaş have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Crystal Palace 4 times in 5. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
FC Midtjylland v St. Truiden — 75%
UEFA Europa Conference League · 3:00 PM ET. In recent matches, FC Midtjylland have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, St. Truiden 4 times in 5. Our model (76%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- SC Braga v Gent (UEFA Europa Conference League, 3:00 PM ET) — 67%. In recent matches, SC Braga have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Gent 4 times in 5. Their last 2 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Our model (70%) is keener than the bookmakers (65%).
- Getafe v FC Lugano (UEFA Europa Conference League, 12:45 PM ET) — 67%. In recent matches, Getafe have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, FC Lugano 5 times in 5. Our model (71%) is keener than the bookmakers (65%).
- Al-Hazm v Al-Fayha (Pro League, 9:40 AM ET) — 67%. In recent matches, Al-Hazm have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Al-Fayha 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Al-Hazm sit 11th and Al-Fayha 15th in a 18-team table. Our model (69%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
- FC Iberia 1999 v Mjallby AIF (UEFA Europa Conference League, 12:45 PM ET) — 68%. In recent matches, FC Iberia 1999 have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Mjallby AIF 3 times in 5. Our model (67%) and the bookmakers (69%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Getafe v FC Lugano — model 71%, market 65%.
- Lincoln Red Imps FC v Twente — model 70%, market 77%.
- Lech Poznan v Sunderland — model 77%, market 71%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace (3:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 85% | 1.4 |
| Ajax v Atalanta (3:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 81% | 1.37 |
| Al Najma v A'Ali (12:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.37 |
| FK Crvena Zvezda v FC Copenhagen (12:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.41 |
| Bihor Oradea v CSM Reşiţa (9:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.4 |
| Itesalat v Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (8:30 AM ET) | Either team wins | 73% | 1.44 |
| Dayrout v El Seka El Hadid (8:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.5 |
| Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat v Kahraba Ismailia (8:30 AM ET) | Either team wins | 71% | 1.44 |
| Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer Sheva (12:45 PM ET) | Home win | 67% | 1.36 |
| SC Braga v Gent (3:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.37 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Mornar to win — Mornar v Mladost DG (9:00 AM ET).
- Union St. Gilloise to win — Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer Sheva (12:45 PM ET).
- Deportivo Riestra Res. to win — Deportivo Riestra Res. v Central Córdoba SdE Res. (2:00 PM ET).
- Tractor Sazi to win — Tractor Sazi v Sanat Naft (9:30 AM ET).
- Buducnost Podgorica to win — Buducnost Podgorica v Arsenal Tivat (12:00 PM ET).
- Celtic to score — Celtic v Celta Vigo (3:00 PM ET), model 82%.
- Al-Hazm to score — Al-Hazm v Al-Fayha (9:40 AM ET), model 80%.
- Botafogo U20 to score — Botafogo U20 v Palmeiras U20 (3:30 PM ET), model 79%.
- Itesalat to score — Itesalat v Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (8:30 AM ET), model 81%.
- Godoy Cruz Res. to score — Godoy Cruz Res. v Instituto Res. (2:00 PM ET), model 78%.
- Jagiellonia to score — Jagiellonia v Anderlecht (3:00 PM ET), model 76%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.