274 matches, one model. These are our first-half goal ratings and best picks for Wednesday, October 21 — with the reasoning behind the strongest spots.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka 6:00 AM | J1 League | 69% | 69% | 69% |
| FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol 6:00 AM | J1 League | 70% | 67% | 71% |
| Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe 6:00 AM | J1 League | 72% | 68% | 73% |
| Kyoto Sanga v Kashima 6:00 AM | J1 League | 70% | 68% | 71% |
| Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka 6:00 AM | J1 League | 72% | 71% | 72% |
| Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock 6:00 AM | J1 League | 67% | 69% | 66% |
| Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia 6:00 AM | J1 League | 65% | 67% | 65% |
| V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima 6:00 AM | J1 League | 73% | 72% | 73% |
| Yokohama F. Marinos v Tokyo Verdy 6:00 AM | J1 League | 66% | 68% | 65% |
| Urawa v JEF United Chiba 6:30 AM | J1 League | 73% | 77% | 71% |
| como v Manchester United 12:45 PM | UEFA Champions League | 76% | 79% | 75% |
| Lille v Galatasaray 12:45 PM | UEFA Champions League | 77% | 77% | – |
| Levante v Athletic Club 2:00 PM | La Liga | 68% | 71% | 66% |
| Reading v Leyton Orient 3:00 PM | League One | 70% | 64% | 73% |
| Aston Villa v Viking 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 81% | 81% | 81% |
| Bayern Munich v Arsenal 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| Real Betis v Feyenoord 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| Club Brugge KV v Lens 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 77% | 75% | 78% |
| Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 69% | 69% | – |
| Real Madrid v RB Leipzig 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 76% | 76% | – |
| Sporting CP v Lask Linz 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 81% | 76% | 83% |
| Atletico Torque v Atletico-MG 6:00 PM | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 69% | 68% | 69% |
| FC Cincinnati v DC United 7:00 PM | Major League Soccer | 78% | 76% | 79% |
| Palmeiras v Fluminense 8:30 PM | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 64% | 64% | – |
| Atlas v Club America 9:00 PM | Liga MX | 73% | 73% | – |
| Puebla v Monterrey 9:00 PM | Liga MX | 74% | 74% | – |
| Toluca v Club Tijuana 9:00 PM | Liga MX | 70% | 70% | – |
| CF Pachuca v Cruz Azul 11:00 PM | Liga MX | 75% | 75% | – |
| Santos Laguna v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 11:10 PM | Liga MX | 71% | 71% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Aston Villa v Viking — 81%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Aston Villa have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Viking 4 times in 5. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
Sporting CP v Lask Linz — 81%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Sporting CP games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Lask Linz games in 3 of 5. Their last 3 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. The bookmakers (83%) are keener than our model alone (76%).
FC Cincinnati v DC United — 78%
Major League Soccer · 7:00 PM ET. In recent matches, FC Cincinnati have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, DC United 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. FC Cincinnati sit 9th and DC United 13th in a 15-team table. Our model (76%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Real Betis v Feyenoord — 78%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Real Betis's last 5 games and 5 of Feyenoord's last 5. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Club Brugge KV v Lens — 77%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Club Brugge KV have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Lens 5 times in 5. Our model (75%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia (J1 League, 6:00 AM ET) — 65%. In recent matches, Shimizu S-pulse have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Machida Zelvia 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Shimizu S-pulse sit 10th and Machida Zelvia 2nd in a 20-team table. Our model (67%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
- Yokohama F. Marinos v Tokyo Verdy (J1 League, 6:00 AM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Yokohama F. Marinos have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Tokyo Verdy 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Yokohama F. Marinos sit 8th and Tokyo Verdy 20th in a 20-team table. Our model (68%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
- Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock (J1 League, 6:00 AM ET) — 67%. In recent matches, Fagiano Okayama have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Mito Hollyhock 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Fagiano Okayama sit 11th and Mito Hollyhock 14th in a 20-team table. Our model (69%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
- Levante v Athletic Club (La Liga, 2:00 PM ET) — 68%. In recent matches, Levante have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Athletic Club 1 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Levante sit 17th and Athletic Club 11th in a 20-team table. Our model (71%) is keener than the bookmakers (66%).
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Reading v Leyton Orient — model 64%, market 73%.
- Sporting CP v Lask Linz — model 76%, market 83%.
- Urawa v JEF United Chiba — model 77%, market 71%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV v Lens (3:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 78% | 1.37 |
| Lille v Galatasaray (12:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 80% | 1.4 |
| PK-35 v FF Jaro (11:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 84% | 1.5 |
| Como v Manchester United (12:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 78% | 1.4 |
| Ceramica Cleopatra v Petrojet (1:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.38 |
| Albirex Niigata v Sagan Tosu (6:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.37 |
| PK-35 v FF Jaro (11:00 AM ET) | Either team wins | 77% | 1.38 |
| Santos Laguna U21 v UNAM Pumas U21 (1:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.35 |
| Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia (6:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.38 |
| Montedio Yamagata v Consadole Sapporo (12:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 76% | 1.42 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Al Ahly to win — Al Ahly v Olympic El Qanah (1:00 PM ET).
- Bentonit Ijevan to win — Bentonit Ijevan v Sardarapat 2 (7:30 AM ET).
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win — V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (6:00 AM ET).
- Marsaxlokk to win — Birzebbuga v Marsaxlokk (12:00 PM ET).
- Bali United to win — Bali United v Garudayaksa (4:30 AM ET).
- Vegalta Sendai to win — Vegalta Sendai v Imabari (6:00 AM ET).
- Shonan Bellmare to score — Shonan Bellmare v Iwaki (6:00 AM ET), model 80%.
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki to score — Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Blaublitz Akita (6:00 AM ET), model 78%.
- Parceiro Nagano to score — Parceiro Nagano v FC Ryukyu (12:00 AM ET), model 78%.
- Estudiantes de Merida FC to score — Estudiantes de Merida FC v Caracas FC (5:00 PM ET), model 76%.
- Atletico Torque to score — Atletico Torque v Atletico-MG (6:00 PM ET), model 77%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.