Our model has rated all 224 matches on Tuesday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Diriyah v Al Riyadh 11:00 AM | Pro League | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC 11:10 AM | Pro League | 78% | 80% | 77% |
| Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha 12:45 PM | UEFA Champions League | 75% | 76% | 75% |
| Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund 12:45 PM | UEFA Champions League | 76% | 71% | 78% |
| Al-Ettifaq v Al-Ittihad FC 2:00 PM | Pro League | 76% | 77% | 75% |
| Al-Nassr v NEOM 2:00 PM | Pro League | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| Wolves v Portsmouth 2:45 PM | Championship | 71% | 72% | 71% |
| Barnet v Swindon Town 2:45 PM | League Two | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Bristol Rovers v Salford City 2:45 PM | League Two | 71% | 68% | 72% |
| Cheltenham v Fleetwood Town 2:45 PM | League Two | 69% | 65% | 71% |
| Chesterfield v Colchester 2:45 PM | League Two | 73% | 72% | 73% |
| Crawley Town v Shrewsbury 2:45 PM | League Two | 68% | 67% | 69% |
| Exeter City v Crewe 2:45 PM | League Two | 66% | 65% | 66% |
| Northampton v Tranmere 2:45 PM | League Two | 64% | 59% | 66% |
| Rochdale v Grimsby 2:45 PM | League Two | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| Rotherham v Newport County 2:45 PM | League Two | 67% | 64% | 69% |
| Walsall v Oldham 2:45 PM | League Two | 70% | 67% | 71% |
| York v Accrington ST 2:45 PM | League Two | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town 2:45 PM | League One | 71% | 69% | 71% |
| Blackpool v Milton Keynes Dons 2:45 PM | League One | 71% | 65% | 73% |
| Bromley v Leicester 2:45 PM | League One | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| Burton Albion v Bradford 2:45 PM | League One | 67% | 68% | 66% |
| Cambridge United v Wycombe 2:45 PM | League One | 70% | 67% | 71% |
| Doncaster v Stockport County 2:45 PM | League One | 72% | 69% | 73% |
| Huddersfield v Peterborough 2:45 PM | League One | 75% | 71% | 77% |
| Luton v Barnsley 2:45 PM | League One | 76% | 75% | 77% |
| Notts County v Sheffield Wednesday 2:45 PM | League One | 71% | 70% | 71% |
| Oxford United v Wigan 2:45 PM | League One | 70% | 72% | 69% |
| Stevenage v Plymouth 2:45 PM | League One | 68% | 65% | 69% |
| Alvechurch v Spalding United 2:45 PM | FA Cup | 69% | 64% | 71% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Paris Saint Germain v Barcelona — 83%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Paris Saint Germain games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Barcelona games in 5 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (84%) agree.
Manchester City v AEK Athens FC — 81%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Manchester City have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, AEK Athens FC 4 times in 5. The bookmakers (83%) are keener than our model alone (78%).
AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava — 80%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. AS Roma games have had a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5, and Slovan Bratislava games in 4 of 5. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC — 78%
Pro League · 11:10 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 3 of Al Taawon's last 5 games and 4 of Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Al Taawon sit 17th and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2nd in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
Forest Green v Chesham United — 76%
FA Cup · 2:45 PM ET. In recent matches, Forest Green have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Chesham United 4 times in 5. Our model (80%) is keener than the bookmakers (75%).
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Northampton v Tranmere (League Two, 2:45 PM ET) — 64%. In recent matches, Northampton have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Tranmere 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Northampton sit 22nd and Tranmere 17th in a 24-team table. The bookmakers (66%) are keener than our model alone (59%).
- Gillingham v Port Vale (League Two, 3:00 PM ET) — 65%. In recent matches, Gillingham have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Port Vale 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Gillingham sit 6th and Port Vale 21st in a 24-team table. The bookmakers (66%) are keener than our model alone (61%).
- Exeter City v Crewe (League Two, 2:45 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Exeter City have seen a goal before the break 1 times in 5, Crewe 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Exeter City sit 16th and Crewe 3rd in a 24-team table. Our model (65%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
- Burton Albion v Bradford (League One, 2:45 PM ET) — 67%. In recent matches, Burton Albion have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Bradford 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Burton Albion sit 10th and Bradford 1st in a 24-team table. Our model (68%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Gloucester City v Barrow — model 64%, market 72%.
- Blackpool v Milton Keynes Dons — model 65%, market 73%.
- Alvechurch v Spalding United — model 64%, market 71%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Geish v Pyramids FC (1:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.39 |
| Aldosivi Res. v Banfield Res. (2:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 77% | 1.42 |
| Cambridge United v Wycombe (2:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.42 |
| Cheltenham v Fleetwood Town (2:45 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.37 |
| Masr v Future FC (10:00 AM ET) | Either team wins | 74% | 1.4 |
| Depor FC v Quindio (4:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.38 |
| Londrina v Cuiaba (6:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.42 |
| Asyut Petrol v Zamalek SC (10:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.47 |
| AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town (2:45 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.4 |
| Al Okhdood v Al-Adalah (12:50 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.4 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Zamalek SC to win — Asyut Petrol v Zamalek SC (10:00 AM ET).
- Al-Qadisiyah FC to win — Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC (11:10 AM ET).
- Dewa United to win — Dewa United v Persijap (8:00 AM ET).
- Ramsgate to win — Ramsgate v Stanway Rovers (2:45 PM ET).
- Barnet to win — Barnet v Swindon Town (2:45 PM ET).
- Uxbridge to win — Uxbridge v Malvern Town (2:45 PM ET).
- Paraguari AC to score — Paraguari AC v Fernando De La Mora (6:00 PM ET), model 81%.
- Anstey Nomads to score — Anstey Nomads v Macclesfield (2:45 PM ET), model 80%.
- Aldosivi Res. to score — Aldosivi Res. v Banfield Res. (2:00 PM ET), model 78%.
- United of Manchester to score — United of Manchester v Altrincham (2:45 PM ET), model 78%.
- Alvechurch to score — Alvechurch v Spalding United (2:45 PM ET), model 77%.
- Crawley Town to score — Crawley Town v Shrewsbury (2:45 PM ET), model 76%.
- Cheltenham to score — Cheltenham v Fleetwood Town (2:45 PM ET), model 76%.
- AFC Wimbledon to score — AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town (2:45 PM ET), model 76%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.