Our model has rated all 197 matches on Monday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah 11:05 AM | Pro League | 76% | 77% | 75% |
| Abha v Al Kholood 11:20 AM | Pro League | 70% | 74% | 69% |
| Monza v Cagliari 12:30 PM | Serie A | 68% | 74% | 66% |
| Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF 1:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 67% | 69% | 66% |
| Viborg v FC Midtjylland 1:00 PM | Superliga | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom 1:00 PM | Ekstraklasa | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş 1:00 PM | Süper Lig | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Hazm 2:00 PM | Pro League | 82% | 84% | 81% |
| Al Shabab v Al-Faisaly FC 2:00 PM | Pro League | 68% | 68% | – |
| Celta de Vigo II v Tenerife 2:30 PM | Segunda División | 67% | 70% | 66% |
| Parma v Torino 2:45 PM | Serie A | 64% | 69% | 62% |
| Rodez v Montpellier 2:45 PM | Ligue 2 | 73% | 76% | 72% |
| Tottenham v Coventry 3:00 PM | Premier League | 72% | 69% | 73% |
| Getafe v Rayo Vallecano 3:00 PM | La Liga | 62% | 64% | 61% |
| SC Braga v GIL Vicente 3:15 PM | Primeira Liga | 64% | 57% | 66% |
| Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago 6:00 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 60% | 60% | 61% |
| Sarmiento Junin v Barracas Central 6:00 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 60% | 65% | 58% |
| Corinthians v Vitoria 7:00 PM | Serie A | 62% | 57% | 65% |
| Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa Fe 8:15 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 58% | 58% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Hazm — 82%
Pro League · 2:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 5 games and 4 of Al-Hazm's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit 2nd and Al-Hazm 11th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (84%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah — 76%
Pro League · 11:05 AM ET. In recent matches, Al-Fayha have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Al-Ahli Jeddah 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Al-Fayha sit 14th and Al-Ahli Jeddah 6th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş — 75%
Süper Lig · 1:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Trabzonspor have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Beşiktaş 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Trabzonspor sit 5th and Beşiktaş 4th in a 18-team table. Our model (75%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
Viborg v FC Midtjylland — 74%
Superliga · 1:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Viborg have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, FC Midtjylland 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Viborg sit 3rd and FC Midtjylland 2nd in a 12-team table. Our model (75%) and the bookmakers (73%) agree.
Rodez v Montpellier — 73%
Ligue 2 · 2:45 PM ET. Rodez games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Montpellier games in 3 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Rodez sit 17th and Montpellier 5th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (76%) and the bookmakers (72%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Sarmiento Junin v Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina, 6:00 PM ET) — 60%. In recent matches, Sarmiento Junin have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Barracas Central 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Sarmiento Junin sit 6th and Barracas Central 9th in a 15-team table. Our model (65%) is keener than the bookmakers (58%).
- Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago (Liga Profesional Argentina, 6:00 PM ET) — 60%. In recent matches, Newells Old Boys have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Central Cordoba de Santiago 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Newells Old Boys sit 8th and Central Cordoba de Santiago 14th in a 15-team table. Our model (60%) and the bookmakers (61%) agree.
- Getafe v Rayo Vallecano (La Liga, 3:00 PM ET) — 62%. In recent matches, Getafe have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Rayo Vallecano 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Getafe sit 15th and Rayo Vallecano 14th in a 20-team table. Our model (64%) and the bookmakers (61%) agree.
- Corinthians v Vitoria (Serie A, 7:00 PM ET) — 62%. In recent matches, Corinthians have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Vitoria 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Corinthians sit 17th and Vitoria 14th in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (65%) are keener than our model alone (57%).
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- SC Braga v GIL Vicente — model 57%, market 66%.
- Monza v Cagliari — model 74%, market 66%.
- Corinthians v Vitoria — model 57%, market 65%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Etar Veliko Tarnovo v Spartak Varna (12:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.4 |
| Monza v Cagliari (12:30 PM ET) | Either team wins | 76% | 1.39 |
| Jong PSV U21 v Dordrecht (2:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 75% | 1.36 |
| Enppi v El Mokawloon (1:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 76% | 1.4 |
| San Telmo v Defensores De Belgrano (2:30 PM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.4 |
| Getafe v Rayo Vallecano (3:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 74% | 1.41 |
| Parma v Torino (2:45 PM ET) | Either team wins | 73% | 1.41 |
| Sarmiento Junin v Barracas Central (6:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 73% | 1.4 |
| Fatih Karagümrük v Keçiörengücü (10:00 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.4 |
| Aveley v Maldon & Tiptree (2:45 PM ET) | Home win | 72% | 1.36 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Omonia Nicosia to win — Omonia Nicosia v Olympiakos (12:00 PM ET).
- Aveley to win — Aveley v Maldon & Tiptree (2:45 PM ET).
- Hapoel Kfar Shalem to win — Hapoel Kfar Shalem v Hapoel Acre (12:00 PM ET).
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win — Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Hazm (2:00 PM ET).
- Bursaspor to win — Bursaspor v Pendikspor (1:00 PM ET).
- Dinamo Minsk to win — Dinamo Minsk v Arsenal (1:00 PM ET).
- Juventus U23 to score — Juventus U23 v Renate (2:30 PM ET), model 77%.
- Esteghlal FC to score — Esteghlal FC v Gol Gohar (10:15 AM ET), model 79%.
- Newells Old Boys to score — Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago (6:00 PM ET), model 77%.
- Celta de Vigo II to score — Celta de Vigo II v Tenerife (2:30 PM ET), model 78%.
- Jong Utrecht to score — Jong Utrecht v Roda (2:00 PM ET), model 77%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.