Our model has rated all 1269 matches on Sunday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe 12:55 AM | J1 League | 68% | 73% | 65% |
| Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 72% | 70% | 73% |
| Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 67% | 64% | 69% |
| Machida Zelvia v Avispa Fukuoka 3:00 AM | J1 League | 67% | 68% | 66% |
| FC Seoul v Sangju Sangmu FC 3:30 AM | K League 1 | 74% | 74% | 73% |
| Gangwon FC v Incheon United 3:30 AM | K League 1 | 63% | 65% | 62% |
| Pohang Steelers v FC Anyang 3:30 AM | K League 1 | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles 6:15 AM | Eredivisie | 75% | 72% | 77% |
| Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice 6:15 AM | Ekstraklasa | 70% | 69% | 71% |
| Udinese v Lecce 6:30 AM | Serie A | 69% | 74% | 66% |
| Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor 6:30 AM | Süper Lig | 67% | 69% | 66% |
| Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück 7:30 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98 7:30 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 76% | 74% | 77% |
| Dynamo Dresden v FC Magdeburg 7:30 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 78% | 81% | 75% |
| Sirius v IF Elfsborg 8:00 AM | Allsvenskan | 72% | 74% | 71% |
| Vasteras SK FK v Mjallby AIF 8:00 AM | Allsvenskan | 69% | 65% | 71% |
| Lyngby v FC Nordsjaelland 8:00 AM | Superliga | 74% | 73% | 75% |
| Sonderjyske v Silkeborg 8:00 AM | Superliga | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo 8:00 AM | Segunda División | 68% | 73% | 65% |
| Osasuna v Racing Santander 8:00 AM | La Liga | 73% | 72% | 73% |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF v Rosenborg 8:30 AM | Eliteserien | 74% | 73% | 75% |
| Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar 8:30 AM | Eredivisie | 77% | 76% | 78% |
| Red Bull Salzburg v SCR Altach 8:30 AM | Bundesliga | 76% | 78% | 75% |
| Wolfsberger AC v WSG Wattens 8:30 AM | Bundesliga | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Zaglebie Lubin v Jagiellonia 8:45 AM | Ekstraklasa | 69% | 66% | 71% |
| Fiorentina v como 9:00 AM | Serie A | 75% | 80% | 72% |
| Angers v Marseille 9:00 AM | Ligue 1 | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| Bournemouth v Sunderland 9:00 AM | Premier League | 70% | 71% | 69% |
| Brighton v Crystal Palace 9:00 AM | Premier League | 77% | 80% | 75% |
| Leeds v Manchester United 9:00 AM | Premier League | 70% | 68% | 72% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Molde v Start — 80%
Eliteserien · 11:00 AM ET. In recent matches, Molde have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Start 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Molde sit 4th and Start 16th in a 16-team table. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Borussia Monchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim — 79%
Bundesliga · 11:30 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of Borussia Monchengladbach's last 5 games and 4 of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Borussia Monchengladbach sit 18th and 1899 Hoffenheim 17th in a 18-team table. Our model (79%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Groningen v Ajax — 78%
Eredivisie · 10:45 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of Groningen's last 5 games and 5 of Ajax's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Groningen sit 6th and Ajax 5th in a 18-team table. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew — 78%
Major League Soccer · 5:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of FC Cincinnati's last 5 games and 4 of Columbus Crew's last 5. FC Cincinnati sit 8th and Columbus Crew 13th in a 15-team table. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Valerenga v Brann — 78%
Eliteserien · 11:00 AM ET. Valerenga games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Brann games in 4 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Valerenga sit 14th and Brann 7th in a 16-team table. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina, 5:00 PM ET) — 58%. In recent matches, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Aldosivi 4 times in 5. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto sit 15th and Aldosivi 14th in a 15-team table. Our model (61%) and the bookmakers (56%) agree.
- Estudiantes L.P. v San Lorenzo (Liga Profesional Argentina, 5:00 PM ET) — 58%. In recent matches, Estudiantes L.P. have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, San Lorenzo 2 times in 5. Estudiantes L.P. sit 9th and San Lorenzo 10th in a 15-team table. Our model (58%) and the bookmakers (59%) agree.
- Belgrano Cordoba v River Plate (Liga Profesional Argentina, 7:15 PM ET) — 60%. In recent matches, Belgrano Cordoba have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, River Plate 5 times in 5. Belgrano Cordoba sit 3rd and River Plate 9th in a 15-team table. Our model (58%) and the bookmakers (61%) agree.
- Racing Club v Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina, 1:45 PM ET) — 62%. In recent matches, Racing Club have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Independiente 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 1 time. Racing Club sit 13th and Independiente 7th in a 15-team table. Our model (60%) and the bookmakers (62%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo — model 73%, market 65%.
- Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe — model 73%, market 65%.
- Udinese v Lecce — model 74%, market 66%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor (6:30 AM ET) | Home or draw | 84% | 1.46 |
| Gimnástica Torrelavega v Deportivo Alavés II (11:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.37 |
| Vasteras SK FK v Mjallby AIF (8:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 78% | 1.4 |
| Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe (12:55 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.37 |
| Sorrento v Casertana (11:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.36 |
| Albinoleffe v Novara (11:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.36 |
| Maribor v Celje (12:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 77% | 1.4 |
| Mallorca II v Orihuela (6:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 77% | 1.4 |
| Aurora v Deportivo San Pedro (1:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.4 |
| US Mondorf-les-bains v Wiltz (10:00 AM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 1.4 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Brighton to win — Brighton v Crystal Palace (9:00 AM ET).
- Universitatea Craiova to win — Universitatea Craiova v Farul Constanta (2:00 PM ET).
- FC Differdange 03 to win — Victoria Rosport v FC Differdange 03 (10:00 AM ET).
- Iğdır FK to win — Iğdır FK v Boluspor (6:30 AM ET).
- VfL Wolfsburg W to win — Mainz 05 W v VfL Wolfsburg W (12:30 PM ET).
- Pardubice II to win — Pardubice II v Velké Hamry (4:15 AM ET).
- Monagas II to score — Monagas II v Petare FC (3:30 PM ET), model 83%.
- FK Jablonec to score — FK Jablonec v Plzen (12:00 PM ET), model 83%.
- Angers to score — Angers v Marseille (9:00 AM ET), model 83%.
- Kocaelispor to score — Kocaelispor v Göztepe (9:00 AM ET), model 82%.
- Lokomotiv Kyiv to score — Lokomotiv Kyiv v Nyva Ternopil (5:00 AM ET), model 78%.
- Fluminense to score — Fluminense v Santos (3:00 PM ET), model 79%.
- Polessya to score — Polessya v Dynamo Kyiv (6:00 AM ET), model 81%.
- Albinoleffe to score — Albinoleffe v Novara (11:30 AM ET), model 81%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.