Here are The Soccer Expert model's predictions for Saturday, October 17: first-half goal ratings for 1640 fixtures, the games where an early goal looks most likely, and the published picks it likes best.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka 12:00 AM | J1 League | 66% | 62% | 69% |
| Auckland v Melbourne City 12:00 AM | A-League | 69% | 73% | 66% |
| JEF United Chiba v Yokohama F. Marinos 1:00 AM | J1 League | 69% | 70% | 69% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Kyoto Sanga 1:00 AM | J1 League | 74% | 70% | 77% |
| Tokyo Verdy v FC Tokyo 1:00 AM | J1 League | 67% | 70% | 65% |
| Cerezo Osaka v Kawasaki Frontale 2:00 AM | J1 League | 71% | 64% | 75% |
| Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki 2:00 AM | J1 League | 73% | 75% | 72% |
| Macarthur v Perth Glory FC 2:00 AM | A-League | 74% | 76% | 72% |
| Mito Hollyhock v Urawa 3:00 AM | J1 League | 69% | 73% | 66% |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC v Bucheon FC 1995 3:30 AM | K League 1 | 71% | 68% | 72% |
| Central Coast Mariners FC v Newcastle Jets FC 4:40 AM | A-League | 77% | 75% | 78% |
| Kashiwa Reysol v Nagoya Grampus 6:00 AM | J1 League | 74% | 74% | 73% |
| Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor 6:30 AM | Süper Lig | 67% | 68% | 66% |
| SpVgg Greuther Furth v Eintracht Braunschweig 7:00 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| FC Kaiserslautern v Vfl Bochum 7:00 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 71% | 68% | 72% |
| VfL Wolfsburg v FC Heidenheim 7:00 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| Everton v Chelsea 7:30 AM | Premier League | 71% | 68% | 72% |
| Middlesbrough v Cardiff 7:30 AM | Championship | 79% | 79% | 78% |
| Millwall v Lincoln 7:30 AM | Championship | 68% | 67% | 69% |
| Watford v Charlton 7:30 AM | Championship | 69% | 72% | 66% |
| Fleetwood Town v Rotherham 7:30 AM | League Two | 69% | 68% | 69% |
| Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers 7:30 AM | League Two | 65% | 64% | 66% |
| Milton Keynes Dons v Luton 7:30 AM | League One | 73% | 74% | 72% |
| Peterborough v Burton Albion 7:30 AM | League One | 72% | 70% | 73% |
| Bury v Harrogate Town 7:30 AM | FA Cup | 78% | 78% | – |
| Ham-Kam v Bodo/Glimt 8:00 AM | Eliteserien | 79% | 76% | 81% |
| Metz v Sochaux 8:00 AM | Ligue 2 | 64% | 62% | 66% |
| Nantes v Dunkerque 8:00 AM | Ligue 2 | 68% | 63% | 71% |
| Real Sociedad II v Almeria 8:00 AM | Segunda División | 73% | 76% | 71% |
| Espanyol v Atletico Madrid 8:00 AM | La Liga | 73% | 75% | 71% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven — 83%
Eredivisie · 10:30 AM ET. In recent matches, ADO Den Haag have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, PSV Eindhoven 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. ADO Den Haag sit 17th and PSV Eindhoven 2nd in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (84%) and the bookmakers (83%) agree.
Bayern München v RB Leipzig — 82%
Bundesliga · 12:30 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Bayern München's last 5 games and 4 of RB Leipzig's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Bayern München sit 3rd and RB Leipzig 5th in a 18-team table. The bookmakers (86%) are keener than our model alone (76%).
Real Betis v Barcelona — 81%
La Liga · 12:30 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Real Betis's last 5 games and 5 of Barcelona's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Real Betis sit 3rd and Barcelona 1st in a 20-team table. Our model (79%) and the bookmakers (83%) agree.
Telstar v Feyenoord — 81%
Eredivisie · 2:00 PM ET. Telstar games have had a first-half goal in 2 of their last 5, and Feyenoord games in 5 of 5. Their last 2 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Telstar sit 15th and Feyenoord 1st in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (83%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Manchester City v Ipswich — 80%
Premier League · 10:00 AM ET. Manchester City games have had a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5, and Ipswich games in 4 of 5. Their last 2 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Manchester City sit 1st and Ipswich 10th in a 20-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (82%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Platense v Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina, 4:30 PM ET) — 57%. In recent matches, Platense have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Lanus 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Platense sit 13th and Lanus 5th in a 15-team table. Our model (60%) and the bookmakers (56%) agree.
- Atletico Tucuman v Rosario Central (Liga Profesional Argentina, 7:00 PM ET) — 57%. In recent matches, Atletico Tucuman have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Rosario Central 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Atletico Tucuman sit 10th and Rosario Central 1st in a 15-team table. Our model (55%) and the bookmakers (59%) agree.
- Independ. Rivadavia v Tigre (Liga Profesional Argentina, 4:30 PM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, Independ. Rivadavia have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Tigre 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Independ. Rivadavia sit 8th and Tigre 12th in a 15-team table. Our model (67%) is keener than the bookmakers (61%).
- Velez Sarsfield v Gimnasia M. (Liga Profesional Argentina, 7:00 PM ET) — 64%. In recent matches, Velez Sarsfield have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Gimnasia M. 2 times in 5. Velez Sarsfield sit 4th and Gimnasia M. 6th in a 15-team table. Our model (63%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Sporting Gijon v Albacete — model 80%, market 69%.
- Leicester v Doncaster — model 64%, market 75%.
- Cerezo Osaka v Kawasaki Frontale — model 64%, market 75%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town v Rotherham (7:30 AM ET) | Home or draw | 83% | 1.36 |
| FF Jaro v Mariehamn (7:00 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 79% | 1.39 |
| Valletta FC v Sliema Wanderers (9:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.4 |
| Zhetysu v Kaisar (7:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.37 |
| Brentford v Liverpool (10:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 81% | 1.48 |
| Dunfermline v Livingston (10:00 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.4 |
| Enisey v Torpedo Moskva (4:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.38 |
| Padova v Virtus Entella (9:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.4 |
| Racing Montevideo v Wanderers (12:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.37 |
| Floridsdorfer AC v Admira Wacker (9:30 AM ET) | Home or draw | 76% | 1.36 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Cavalry FC to win — Cavalry FC v Pacific FC (4:00 PM ET).
- Salford City to win — Salford City v Crawley Town (10:00 AM ET).
- Barcelona B to win — Barcelona B v Utebo (11:00 AM ET).
- Concordia to win — Concordia v Viitorul Şelimbăr (4:00 AM ET).
- Stockport County to win — Stockport County v Bromley (10:00 AM ET).
- Hartford Athletic to win — Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn (7:00 PM ET).
- Hebburn Town to score — Hebburn Town v Scarborough Athletic (10:00 AM ET), model 84%.
- Popești-Leordeni to score — Popești-Leordeni v CS Afumati (4:00 AM ET), model 84%.
- Concarneau to score — Concarneau v Bastia (8:45 AM ET), model 83%.
- Everton to score — Everton v Chelsea (7:30 AM ET), model 84%.
- Ajka to score — Ajka v BVSC (11:00 AM ET), model 84%.
- Valletta FC to score — Valletta FC v Sliema Wanderers (9:30 AM ET), model 82%.
- Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz to score — Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz v SKU Amstetten (9:30 AM ET), model 80%.
- Zamora FC to score — Zamora FC v Anzoátegui FC (4:00 PM ET), model 82%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.