393 matches, one model. These are our first-half goal ratings and best picks for Friday, October 16 — with the reasoning behind the strongest spots.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC v Western Sydney 5:00 AM | A-League | 73% | 73% | 72% |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC v Abha 9:15 AM | Pro League | 80% | 80% | 79% |
| Al Riyadh v Al-Hilal Saudi FC 11:00 AM | Pro League | 79% | 80% | 78% |
| Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa 12:00 PM | Ekstraklasa | 75% | 71% | 77% |
| Energie Cottbus v FC Nurnberg 12:30 PM | 2. Bundesliga | 80% | 82% | 78% |
| Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin 12:30 PM | 2. Bundesliga | 78% | 83% | 77% |
| IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgardens IF 1:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 74% | 71% | 75% |
| AC Horsens v Randers FC 1:00 PM | Superliga | 72% | 73% | 71% |
| Çorum FK v Rizespor 1:00 PM | Süper Lig | 69% | 66% | 71% |
| Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg 1:30 PM | Bundesliga | 78% | 80% | 77% |
| Heerenveen v Excelsior 2:00 PM | Eredivisie | 76% | 75% | 77% |
| Annecy v Nancy 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 65% | 62% | 66% |
| Grenoble v Boulogne 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 62% | 61% | 62% |
| Guingamp v PAU 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 70% | 72% | 69% |
| Laval v Clermont Foot 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 64% | 62% | 65% |
| Reims v Dijon 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 72% | 70% | 72% |
| Al-Ittihad FC v Al Shabab 2:00 PM | Pro League | 78% | 80% | 77% |
| Widzew Łódź v Wisla Krakow 2:30 PM | Ekstraklasa | 72% | 71% | 72% |
| Leganes v Cordoba 2:30 PM | Segunda División | 69% | 65% | 71% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln 2:30 PM | Bundesliga | 77% | 75% | 78% |
| Hellas Verona v Catanzaro 2:30 PM | Serie B | 73% | 78% | 71% |
| Frosinone v Sassuolo 2:45 PM | Serie A | 76% | 74% | 77% |
| Le Mans v Toulouse 2:45 PM | Ligue 1 | 72% | 71% | 72% |
| Burnley v Wolves 3:00 PM | Championship | 71% | 76% | 69% |
| Deportivo La Coruna v Levante 3:00 PM | La Liga | 69% | 71% | 69% |
| Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto Cordoba 6:00 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 63% | 63% | 62% |
| Mirassol v Internacional 7:00 PM | Serie A | 69% | 69% | 69% |
| Boca Juniors v Talleres Cordoba 8:30 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 64% | 64% | – |
| Necaxa v Atlas 9:00 PM | Liga MX | 74% | 74% | – |
| Club Tijuana v Puebla 11:00 PM | Liga MX | 70% | 70% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Energie Cottbus v FC Nurnberg — 80%
2. Bundesliga · 12:30 PM ET. In recent matches, Energie Cottbus have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, FC Nurnberg 5 times in 5. Energie Cottbus sit 8th and FC Nurnberg 2nd in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (82%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Al-Qadisiyah FC v Abha — 80%
Pro League · 9:15 AM ET. Al-Qadisiyah FC games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Abha games in 3 of 5. Their last 2 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Al-Qadisiyah FC sit 2nd and Abha 18th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Al Riyadh v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 79%
Pro League · 11:00 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 2 of Al Riyadh's last 5 games and 5 of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Al Riyadh sit 12th and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1st in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin — 78%
2. Bundesliga · 12:30 PM ET. Holstein Kiel games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Hertha Berlin games in 3 of 5. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Holstein Kiel sit 18th and Hertha Berlin 1st in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (83%) is keener than the bookmakers (77%).
Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg — 78%
Bundesliga · 1:30 PM ET. In recent matches, Rapid Vienna have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, TSV Hartberg 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Rapid Vienna sit 1st and TSV Hartberg 6th in a 12-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Grenoble v Boulogne (Ligue 2, 2:00 PM ET) — 62%. In recent matches, Grenoble have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Boulogne 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Grenoble sit 14th and Boulogne 16th in a 18-team table. Our model (61%) and the bookmakers (62%) agree.
- Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina, 6:00 PM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, Defensa Y Justicia have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Instituto Cordoba 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Defensa Y Justicia sit 2nd and Instituto Cordoba 1st in a 15-team table. Our model (63%) and the bookmakers (62%) agree.
- Laval v Clermont Foot (Ligue 2, 2:00 PM ET) — 64%. In recent matches, Laval have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Clermont Foot 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Laval sit 18th and Clermont Foot 17th in a 18-team table. Our model (62%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
- Annecy v Nancy (Ligue 2, 2:00 PM ET) — 65%. In recent matches, Annecy have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Nancy 2 times in 5. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Annecy sit 6th and Nancy 5th in a 18-team table. Our model (62%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Burnley v Wolves — model 76%, market 69%.
- Hellas Verona v Catanzaro — model 78%, market 71%.
- Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin — model 83%, market 77%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd v Partick (2:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 79% | 1.4 |
| Dinamo Tirana v Teuta Durrës (12:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.4 |
| Cerro v Cerro Largo (6:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.4 |
| Aluminij v Olimpija Ljubljana (11:30 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.38 |
| Mirassol v Internacional (7:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 72% | 1.39 |
| FC Cartagena v Europa Fc (1:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.37 |
| Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto Cordoba (6:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 73% | 1.37 |
| El Seka El Hadid v Ismaily SC (8:30 AM ET) | Either team wins | 76% | 1.44 |
| Ahrobiznes Volochysk v Metal Kharkiv (6:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.39 |
| Sloga Doboj v Siroki Brijeg (12:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.4 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Tornado Pekanbaru to win — Persiba Balikpapan v Tornado Pekanbaru (8:00 AM ET).
- Alashkert to win — Alashkert v Syunik (9:00 AM ET).
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win — Al Riyadh v Al-Hilal Saudi FC (11:00 AM ET).
- Krasnodar U19 to win — Krasnodar U19 v Nizhny Novgorod U19 (8:00 AM ET).
- Al-Wasl FC to win — Baniyas SC v Al-Wasl FC (11:45 AM ET).
- Atletico Goianiense to win — Ponte Preta v Atletico Goianiense (6:30 PM ET).
- Persepam Madura Utd to score — Persepam Madura Utd v Bhayangkara FC (8:00 AM ET), model 84%.
- Le Mans to score — Le Mans v Toulouse (2:45 PM ET), model 82%.
- Scheiblingkirchen to score — Scheiblingkirchen v Krems / Rehberg (1:00 PM ET), model 81%.
- Al Shahaniya to score — Al Shahaniya v Al-Arabi SC (12:45 PM ET), model 80%.
- Olympique Akbou to score — Olympique Akbou v Ben Aknoun (10:30 AM ET), model 76%.
- Cerro to score — Cerro v Cerro Largo (6:00 PM ET), model 80%.
- Sport Recife to score — Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC (7:30 PM ET), model 77%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.