139 matches, one model. These are our first-half goal ratings and best picks for Thursday, October 15 — with the reasoning behind the strongest spots.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Faisaly FC v Al Kholood 9:40 AM | Pro League | 76% | 76% | – |
| Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Fayha 10:50 AM | Pro League | 68% | 71% | 66% |
| Al-Hazm v Al-Fateh 11:15 AM | Pro League | 73% | 74% | 72% |
| AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Beer Sheva 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 75% | 70% | 77% |
| Celje v Omonia Nicosia 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 69% | 68% | 69% |
| Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 79% | 79% | 78% |
| Lyon v Crystal Palace 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 74% | 74% | 73% |
| Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 74% | 78% | 72% |
| Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 72% | 70% | 73% |
| Sparta Praha v Lillestrom 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 76% | 78% | 75% |
| Torreense v Sunderland 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa League | 72% | 69% | 73% |
| CSKA Sofia v Monaco 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC Midtjylland 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 72% | 76% | 71% |
| Gent v Aarhus 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 70% | 72% | 69% |
| HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 75% | 76% | 75% |
| KuPS v Trabzonspor 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 73% | 74% | 72% |
| FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 73% | 74% | 72% |
| Mjallby AIF v Inter Club d'Escaldes 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 71% | 69% | 72% |
| Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 73% | 67% | 75% |
| Riga v Kairat Almaty 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 68% | 73% | 66% |
| CS Universitatea Craiova v Getafe 12:45 PM | UEFA Europa Conference League | 63% | 66% | 62% |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Nassr 2:00 PM | Pro League | 74% | 77% | 73% |
| Mansfield Town v Oxford United 3:00 PM | League One | 72% | 73% | 71% |
| Benfica v Celtic 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 76% | 75% | 77% |
| Bournemouth v Sturm Graz 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 77% | 73% | 78% |
| Celta Vigo v Juventus 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 66% | 65% | 66% |
| Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 72% | 75% | 71% |
| Ferencvarosi TC v Plzen 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 74% | 78% | 72% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim v Beşiktaş 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 76% | 75% | 77% |
| Jagiellonia v Ararat-Armenia 3:00 PM | UEFA Europa League | 74% | 75% | 73% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Brighton v Kauno Žalgiris — 82%
UEFA Europa Conference League · 3:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Brighton's last 5 games and 3 of Kauno Žalgiris's last 5. The bookmakers (85%) are keener than our model alone (75%).
Twente v FC Thun — 79%
UEFA Europa Conference League · 3:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 3 of Twente's last 5 games and 5 of FC Thun's last 5. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen — 79%
UEFA Europa League · 12:45 PM ET. In recent matches, Lech Poznan have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Bayer Leverkusen 5 times in 5. Our model (79%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Bournemouth v Sturm Graz — 77%
UEFA Europa League · 3:00 PM ET. Bournemouth games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Sturm Graz games in 3 of 5. The bookmakers (78%) are keener than our model alone (73%).
Brann v Lincoln Red Imps FC — 76%
UEFA Europa Conference League · 3:00 PM ET. Brann games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Lincoln Red Imps FC games in 4 of 5. The bookmakers (78%) are keener than our model alone (72%).
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Huracan v Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina, 7:00 PM ET) — 57%. In recent matches, Huracan have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Gimnasia L.P. 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Huracan sit 5th and Gimnasia L.P. 6th in a 15-team table. The bookmakers (59%) are keener than our model alone (52%).
- CS Universitatea Craiova v Getafe (UEFA Europa Conference League, 12:45 PM ET) — 63%. In recent matches, CS Universitatea Craiova have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Getafe 3 times in 5. Our model (66%) and the bookmakers (62%) agree.
- Celta Vigo v Juventus (UEFA Europa League, 3:00 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Celta Vigo have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Juventus 4 times in 5. Our model (65%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
- FC Copenhagen v SC Braga (UEFA Europa Conference League, 3:00 PM ET) — 67%. In recent matches, FC Copenhagen have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, SC Braga 3 times in 5. Our model (72%) is keener than the bookmakers (65%).
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Brighton v Kauno Žalgiris — model 75%, market 85%.
- Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka — model 67%, market 75%.
- Atalanta v Pafos — model 67%, market 75%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad (12:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 89% | 1.5 |
| FC Copenhagen v SC Braga (3:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 78% | 1.4 |
| Lyon v Crystal Palace (12:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 76% | 1.39 |
| FC Copenhagen v SC Braga (3:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 75% | 1.39 |
| Johvi Phoenix v Luunja (11:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 74% | 1.44 |
| Celje v Omonia Nicosia (12:45 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.4 |
| CS Universitatea Craiova v Getafe (12:45 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.45 |
| Manisa F.K. v Esenler Erokspor (1:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.43 |
| Huracan v Gimnasia L.P. (7:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 72% | 1.42 |
| Celta Vigo v Juventus (3:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 1.39 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- AZ Alkmaar to win — AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Beer Sheva (12:45 PM ET).
- Kahraba Ismailia to win — Kahraba Ismailia v Team (8:30 AM ET).
- Boca Juniors Res. to win — Boca Juniors Res. v Ferro 2 (6:00 PM ET).
- Benfica to win — Benfica v Celtic (3:00 PM ET).
- Twente to win — Twente v FC Thun (3:00 PM ET).
- Uttaradit to score — Uttaradit v Satun (7:00 AM ET), model 86%.
- FC Lugano to score — FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda (12:45 PM ET), model 82%.
- Pogoń Siedlce to score — Pogoń Siedlce v Puszcza Niepołomice (12:30 PM ET), model 82%.
- FC Copenhagen to score — FC Copenhagen v SC Braga (3:00 PM ET), model 80%.
- Manisa F.K. to score — Manisa F.K. v Esenler Erokspor (1:00 PM ET), model 78%.
- Torpedo Vladimir to score — Torpedo Vladimir v Spartak Moscow 2 (7:00 AM ET), model 76%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.