Here are The Soccer Expert model's predictions for Wednesday, October 14: first-half goal ratings for 245 fixtures, the games where an early goal looks most likely, and the published picks it likes best.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord v como 12:45 PM | UEFA Champions League | 78% | 80% | 77% |
| Lask Linz v Liverpool 12:45 PM | UEFA Champions League | 76% | 74% | 78% |
| Norwich v Southampton 2:45 PM | Championship | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd 2:45 PM | Championship | 69% | 69% | 69% |
| QPR v Derby 2:45 PM | Championship | 72% | 75% | 71% |
| Lincoln v West Ham 3:00 PM | Championship | 73% | 74% | 72% |
| AS Roma v Real Madrid 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 76% | 74% | 77% |
| Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 75% | 78% | 73% |
| Real Betis v FC Porto 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 73% | 73% | 72% |
| Bodo/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 77% | 76% | 78% |
| Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 75% | 72% | 77% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens FC 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 70% | 71% | 69% |
| Slovan Bratislava v VfB Stuttgart 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 79% | 78% | 79% |
| Sarmiento Junin v River Plate 6:00 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 64% | 66% | 62% |
| Atletico-MG v Atletico Torque 6:00 PM | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 66% | 67% | 66% |
| Inter Miami v New York City FC 7:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 79% | 78% | 79% |
| Columbus Crew v Charlotte 7:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 76% | 78% | 75% |
| FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution 7:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 77% | 75% | 78% |
| Toronto FC v Orlando City SC 7:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 75% | 72% | 77% |
| CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC 7:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 73% | 69% | 75% |
| DC United v New York Red Bulls 7:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders 8:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 69% | 69% | – |
| Chicago Fire v Philadelphia Union 8:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 74% | 74% | – |
| St. Louis City v Vancouver Whitecaps 8:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 77% | 77% | – |
| Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City 8:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 77% | 77% | – |
| Fluminense v Palmeiras 8:30 PM | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 64% | 64% | – |
| Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC 9:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 70% | 70% | – |
| Real Salt Lake v San Jose Earthquakes 9:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 72% | 72% | – |
| Los Angeles FC v Austin 10:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 70% | 70% | – |
| Los Angeles Galaxy v Portland Timbers 10:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 76% | 76% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Slovan Bratislava v VfB Stuttgart — 79%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Slovan Bratislava's last 5 games and 4 of VfB Stuttgart's last 5. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Inter Miami v New York City FC — 79%
Major League Soccer · 7:30 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of Inter Miami's last 5 games and 4 of New York City FC's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Inter Miami sit 2nd and New York City FC 10th in a 15-team table. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Feyenoord v como — 78%
UEFA Champions League · 12:45 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Feyenoord's last 5 games and 4 of como's last 5. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
Bodo/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund — 77%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Bodo/Glimt games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Borussia Dortmund games in 2 of 5. Our model (76%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution — 77%
Major League Soccer · 7:30 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of FC Cincinnati's last 5 games and 5 of New England Revolution's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. FC Cincinnati sit 8th and New England Revolution 5th in a 15-team table. Our model (75%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Sarmiento Junin v River Plate (Liga Profesional Argentina, 6:00 PM ET) — 64%. In recent matches, Sarmiento Junin have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, River Plate 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Sarmiento Junin sit 4th and River Plate 9th in a 15-team table. Our model (66%) and the bookmakers (62%) agree.
- Atletico-MG v Atletico Torque (CONMEBOL Sudamericana, 6:00 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Atletico-MG have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Atletico Torque 3 times in 5. Our model (67%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
- Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd (Championship, 2:45 PM ET) — 69%. In recent matches, Portsmouth have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Sheffield Utd 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Portsmouth sit 20th and Sheffield Utd 15th in a 24-team table. Our model (69%) and the bookmakers (69%) agree.
- Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens FC (UEFA Champions League, 3:00 PM ET) — 70%. In recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, AEK Athens FC 4 times in 5. Our model (71%) and the bookmakers (69%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — model 69%, market 75%.
- Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain — model 72%, market 77%.
- Lask Linz v Liverpool — model 74%, market 78%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain (3:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 85% | 1.42 |
| Sarmiento Junin v River Plate (6:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.47 |
| Považská Bystrica v FK Košice (8:30 AM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 1.4 |
| Balsicas Atlético v Bullas Deportivo (2:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.39 |
| Krylya Sovetov v Baltika (9:15 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.37 |
| Ümraniyespor v Boluspor (10:00 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.4 |
| Krylya Sovetov v Baltika (9:15 AM ET) | Either team wins | 71% | 1.38 |
| Akhmat v Dinamo Moscow (11:30 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.38 |
| Asker v Frigg (1:00 PM ET) | Both teams score | 71% | 1.36 |
| Tigre Res. v Argentinos Juniors Res. (2:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 73% | 1.45 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Santa Fe to win — Santa Fe v Jaguares (7:30 PM ET).
- Monagas SC to win — Monagas SC v Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (4:00 PM ET).
- Club Atletico Barinas to win — Club Atletico Barinas v Real Frontera (4:00 PM ET).
- FCI Levadia II to win — FCI Levadia II v Nõmme Kalju II (12:00 PM ET).
- Bryne to win — Bryne v Raufoss (1:00 PM ET).
- Haugesund to win — Haugesund v Lyn (1:00 PM ET).
- AS Roma to score — AS Roma v Real Madrid (3:00 PM ET), model 81%.
- Preußen Münster to score — Preußen Münster v Fortuna Dusseldorf (1:00 PM ET), model 81%.
- Shakhtar Donetsk to score — Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens FC (3:00 PM ET), model 78%.
- Al Jandal to score — Al Jandal v Al Okhdood (11:30 AM ET), model 80%.
- Estudiantes La Plata Res to score — Estudiantes La Plata Res v Lanús Res. (2:00 PM ET), model 76%.
- Hartford Athletic to score — Hartford Athletic v Charleston Battery (7:00 PM ET), model 76%.
- Milan II to score — Milan II v Piacenza (9:00 AM ET), model 77%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.