279 matches, one model. These are our first-half goal ratings and best picks for Tuesday, October 13 — with the reasoning behind the strongest spots.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens v Sporting CP 12:45 PM | UEFA Champions League | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Sabah FA v Slavia Praha 12:45 PM | UEFA Champions League | 73% | 74% | 72% |
| Bristol City v Blackburn 2:45 PM | Championship | 69% | 70% | 69% |
| Burnley v Charlton 2:45 PM | Championship | 70% | 72% | 69% |
| Cardiff v Watford 2:45 PM | Championship | 76% | 79% | 75% |
| Millwall v Swansea 2:45 PM | Championship | 69% | 70% | 69% |
| Wolves v Bolton 2:45 PM | Championship | 74% | 76% | 73% |
| Wrexham v West Brom 2:45 PM | Championship | 68% | 72% | 66% |
| Birmingham v Preston 3:00 PM | Championship | 73% | 74% | 72% |
| Stoke City v Middlesbrough 3:00 PM | Championship | 71% | 69% | 72% |
| Arsenal v Lille 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 76% | 77% | 75% |
| Atletico Madrid v Manchester United 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 73% | 69% | 75% |
| Galatasaray v Barcelona 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 83% | 80% | 84% |
| Inter v Club Brugge KV 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 77% | 75% | 78% |
| RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 80% | 80% | 79% |
| Viking v Bayern München 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 84% | 78% | 86% |
| Villarreal v Napoli 3:00 PM | UEFA Champions League | 73% | 72% | 73% |
| Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo 4:00 PM | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 68% | 68% | – |
| Boca Juniors v Vasco DA Gama 8:30 PM | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 63% | 63% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Viking v Bayern München — 84%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Viking's last 5 games and 3 of Bayern München's last 5. The bookmakers (86%) are keener than our model alone (78%).
Galatasaray v Barcelona — 83%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Galatasaray games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Barcelona games in 5 of 5. Their last 2 meetings produced a first-half goal 1 time. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (84%) agree.
RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven — 80%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. In recent matches, RB Leipzig have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, PSV Eindhoven 5 times in 5. Our model (80%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Inter v Club Brugge KV — 77%
UEFA Champions League · 3:00 PM ET. Inter games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Club Brugge KV games in 5 of 5. Our model (75%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Cardiff v Watford — 76%
Championship · 2:45 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Cardiff's last 5 games and 5 of Watford's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Cardiff sit 21st and Watford 20th in a 24-team table. Our model (79%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Wrexham v West Brom (Championship, 2:45 PM ET) — 68%. In recent matches, Wrexham have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, West Brom 4 times in 5. Their last 2 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Wrexham sit 15th and West Brom 9th in a 24-team table. Our model (72%) is keener than the bookmakers (66%).
- Bristol City v Blackburn (Championship, 2:45 PM ET) — 69%. In recent matches, Bristol City have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Blackburn 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Bristol City sit 10th and Blackburn 13th in a 24-team table. Our model (70%) and the bookmakers (69%) agree.
- Millwall v Swansea (Championship, 2:45 PM ET) — 69%. In recent matches, Millwall have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Swansea 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Millwall sit 8th and Swansea 1st in a 24-team table. Our model (70%) and the bookmakers (69%) agree.
- Burnley v Charlton (Championship, 2:45 PM ET) — 70%. In recent matches, Burnley have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Charlton 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Burnley sit 22nd and Charlton 12th in a 24-team table. Our model (72%) and the bookmakers (69%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Viking v Bayern München — model 78%, market 86%.
- Atletico Madrid v Manchester United — model 69%, market 75%.
- Wrexham v West Brom — model 72%, market 66%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laagri v Nõmme United (11:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 87% | 1.44 |
| Athletic Club v Londrina (6:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.4 |
| Clydebank v Dumbarton (2:45 PM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 1.44 |
| Villarreal v Napoli (3:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 71% | 1.38 |
| Lokomotiv v Akron (11:30 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.43 |
| Burgess Hill Town v Dulwich Hamlet (2:45 PM ET) | Home or draw | 72% | 1.44 |
| Millwall v Swansea (2:45 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.38 |
| Juventus U23 v Lumezzane (10:00 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.38 |
| Kanchanaburi v Police Tero (7:30 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.4 |
| Bristol City v Blackburn (2:45 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.36 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Mexico W to win — Mexico W v Jamaica W (4:00 PM ET).
- Krasnodar to win — Krasnodar v Fakel Voronezh (1:45 PM ET).
- Gainsborough Trinity to win — Gainsborough Trinity v Ilkeston Town (2:45 PM ET).
- FC Halifax Town to win — FC Halifax Town v Stoke City U21 (2:00 PM ET).
- Mamelodi Sundowns to win — Richards Bay v Mamelodi Sundowns (1:30 PM ET).
- IFK Norrkoping to win — IFK Norrkoping v GIF Sundsvall (1:00 PM ET).
- USM Alger to score — USM Alger v JS Saoura (3:00 PM ET), model 85%.
- Athletic Club to score — Athletic Club v Londrina (6:30 PM ET), model 84%.
- Sabah FA to score — Sabah FA v Slavia Praha (12:45 PM ET), model 81%.
- Spartak Kostroma to score — Spartak Kostroma v Chelyabinsk (9:00 AM ET), model 80%.
- Guiseley AFC to score — Guiseley AFC v Cleethorpes Town (2:45 PM ET), model 76%.
- Worcester City to score — Worcester City v Stourbridge (2:45 PM ET), model 75%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.