Our model has rated all 208 matches on Monday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid v Albacete 8:00 AM | Segunda División | 70% | 71% | 69% |
| Burgos v Granada CF 10:15 AM | Segunda División | 66% | 68% | 65% |
| PAOK v Kalamata 11:00 AM | Super League 1 | 76% | 77% | 75% |
| Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin 12:00 PM | Ekstraklasa | 74% | 72% | 75% |
| Atalanta v Venezia 12:30 PM | Serie A | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| Oviedo v Eibar 12:30 PM | Segunda División | 70% | 78% | 65% |
| IF Elfsborg v Halmstad 1:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 71% | 69% | 73% |
| Malmo FF v Kalmar FF 1:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 70% | 67% | 71% |
| KFUM Oslo v Valerenga 1:00 PM | Eliteserien | 76% | 80% | 73% |
| Aarhus v Sonderjyske 1:00 PM | Superliga | 73% | 71% | 75% |
| Eyüpspor v Göztepe 1:00 PM | Süper Lig | 71% | 72% | 71% |
| GKS Katowice v Wieczysta Kraków 2:30 PM | Ekstraklasa | 73% | 70% | 75% |
| Torino v Udinese 2:45 PM | Serie A | 67% | 68% | 66% |
| Dijon v Metz 2:45 PM | Ligue 2 | 69% | 67% | 71% |
| Coritiba v Botafogo 3:00 PM | Serie A | 69% | 65% | 71% |
| Lanus v Velez Sarsfield 3:00 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 60% | 58% | 61% |
| Coventry v Newcastle 3:00 PM | Premier League | 73% | 75% | 72% |
| Tenerife v Girona 3:00 PM | Segunda División | 66% | 69% | 65% |
| Levante v Sevilla 3:00 PM | La Liga | 69% | 72% | 66% |
| Famalicao v Alverca 3:15 PM | Primeira Liga | 66% | 65% | 66% |
| Gimnasia M. v Newells Old Boys 5:30 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 59% | 55% | 61% |
| Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense 6:30 PM | Serie A | 72% | 77% | 69% |
| Bragantino v Cruzeiro 8:00 PM | Serie A | 61% | 61% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
KFUM Oslo v Valerenga — 76%
Eliteserien · 1:00 PM ET. KFUM Oslo games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Valerenga games in 4 of 5. KFUM Oslo sit 11th and Valerenga 13th in a 16-team table. Our model (80%) is keener than the bookmakers (73%).
PAOK v Kalamata — 76%
Super League 1 · 11:00 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of PAOK's last 5 games and 5 of Kalamata's last 5. PAOK sit 4th and Kalamata 11th in a 14-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
Atalanta v Venezia — 75%
Serie A · 12:30 PM ET. In recent matches, Atalanta have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Venezia 3 times in 5. Atalanta sit 11th and Venezia 20th in a 20-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (74%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin — 74%
Ekstraklasa · 12:00 PM ET. Radomiak Radom games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Motor Lublin games in 3 of 5. Radomiak Radom sit 15th and Motor Lublin 16th in a 18-team table. Our model (72%) and the bookmakers (75%) agree.
Coventry v Newcastle — 73%
Premier League · 3:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 3 of Coventry's last 5 games and 3 of Newcastle's last 5. Coventry sit 19th and Newcastle 11th in a 20-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (75%) and the bookmakers (72%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Gimnasia M. v Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina, 5:30 PM ET) — 59%. In recent matches, Gimnasia M. have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Newells Old Boys 3 times in 5. Gimnasia M. sit 8th and Newells Old Boys 7th in a 15-team table. The bookmakers (61%) are keener than our model alone (55%).
- Lanus v Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina, 3:00 PM ET) — 60%. In recent matches, Lanus have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Velez Sarsfield 4 times in 5. Lanus sit 6th and Velez Sarsfield 4th in a 15-team table. Our model (58%) and the bookmakers (61%) agree.
- Famalicao v Alverca (Primeira Liga, 3:15 PM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Famalicao have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Alverca 4 times in 5. Famalicao sit 13th and Alverca 10th in a 18-team table. Our model (65%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
- Burgos v Granada CF (Segunda División, 10:15 AM ET) — 66%. In recent matches, Burgos have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Granada CF 4 times in 5. Burgos sit 8th and Granada CF 9th in a 22-team table. Our model (68%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Oviedo v Eibar — model 78%, market 65%.
- Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense — model 77%, market 69%.
- KFUM Oslo v Valerenga — model 80%, market 73%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife v Girona (3:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.39 |
| Adana Adaletgucu v Silifke Belediyespor (8:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 80% | 1.36 |
| Berazategui v Defensores de Cambaceres (2:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 82% | 1.4 |
| Al-Adalah v Al Anwar (10:55 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.4 |
| Torino v Udinese (2:45 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.39 |
| AC Oulu v HJK Helsinki (12:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.45 |
| Oviedo v Eibar (12:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.42 |
| Future FC v ENPPI (10:00 AM ET) | Either team wins | 75% | 1.4 |
| Pescara v Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (2:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.4 |
| Burgos v Granada CF (10:15 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.42 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Forge to win — Forge v York United (1:00 PM ET).
- Always Ready to win — Always Ready v Independiente Petrolero (5:15 PM ET).
- Cultural Leonesa to win — Cultural Leonesa v Arenas Getxo (10:00 AM ET).
- IF Elfsborg to win — IF Elfsborg v Halmstad (1:00 PM ET).
- Union Comercio to win — Union Comercio v Ayacucho FC (4:30 PM ET).
- Novorizontino to win — Novorizontino v Ponte Preta (6:00 PM ET).
- Coritiba to score — Coritiba v Botafogo (3:00 PM ET), model 80%.
- Barletta to score — Barletta v Cavese (2:30 PM ET), model 78%.
- Burgos to score — Burgos v Granada CF (10:15 AM ET), model 78%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.