Our model has rated all 1504 matches on Saturday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Seoul v Jeju United FC 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| Cerezo Osaka v Yokohama F. Marinos 1:00 AM | J1 League | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama 2:00 AM | J1 League | 66% | 70% | 62% |
| FC Tokyo v Urawa 2:00 AM | J1 League | 74% | 75% | 73% |
| Sangju Sangmu FC v FC Anyang 3:30 AM | K League 1 | 70% | 68% | 71% |
| Kyoto Sanga v Machida Zelvia 6:00 AM | J1 League | 70% | 67% | 71% |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Amed 6:30 AM | Süper Lig | 73% | 75% | 71% |
| SV Darmstadt 98 v Energie Cottbus 7:00 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 78% | 81% | 77% |
| FC Magdeburg v Hannover 96 7:00 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| VfL Osnabrück v Dynamo Dresden 7:00 AM | 2. Bundesliga | 77% | 80% | 75% |
| Arsenal v Leeds 7:30 AM | Premier League | 74% | 78% | 71% |
| Charlton v Bristol City 7:30 AM | Championship | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Swansea v Norwich 7:30 AM | Championship | 74% | 78% | 71% |
| West Brom v Birmingham 7:30 AM | Championship | 69% | 74% | 66% |
| Oldham v Accrington ST 7:30 AM | League Two | 69% | 67% | 71% |
| Swindon Town v Crewe 7:30 AM | League Two | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| Notts County v Oxford United 7:30 AM | League One | 67% | 68% | 66% |
| Plymouth v AFC Wimbledon 7:30 AM | League One | 70% | 67% | 72% |
| Clermont Foot v RED Star FC 93 8:00 AM | Ligue 2 | 66% | 68% | 65% |
| Nantes v Reims 8:00 AM | Ligue 2 | 69% | 69% | 69% |
| Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club 8:00 AM | La Liga | 70% | 72% | 69% |
| Cracovia Krakow v Zaglebie Lubin 8:45 AM | Ekstraklasa | 65% | 60% | 69% |
| AIK Stockholm v IF Brommapojkarna 9:00 AM | Allsvenskan | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| Gais v Sirius 9:00 AM | Allsvenskan | 71% | 70% | 71% |
| Genoa v Fiorentina 9:00 AM | Serie A | 69% | 73% | 66% |
| Alanyaspor v Erzurumspor FK 9:00 AM | Süper Lig | 67% | 71% | 65% |
| Samsunspor v Trabzonspor 9:00 AM | Süper Lig | 74% | 77% | 72% |
| Benevento v Cesena 9:00 AM | Serie B | 65% | 65% | – |
| Empoli v Palermo 9:00 AM | Serie B | 70% | 70% | – |
| Virtus Entella v Juve Stabia 9:00 AM | Serie B | 68% | 68% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Bodo/Glimt v Kristiansund BK — 86%
Eliteserien · 10:00 AM ET. Bodo/Glimt games have had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5, and Kristiansund BK games in 5 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Bodo/Glimt sit 2nd and Kristiansund BK 15th in a 16-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (84%) and the bookmakers (86%) agree.
FC Augsburg v Bayern Munich — 85%
Bundesliga · 9:30 AM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of FC Augsburg's last 5 games and 3 of Bayern Munich's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. FC Augsburg sit 5th and Bayern Munich 2nd in a 18-team table. Our model (82%) and the bookmakers (86%) agree.
Real Madrid v Villarreal — 81%
La Liga · 3:00 PM ET. Real Madrid games have had a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5, and Villarreal games in 4 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Real Madrid sit 4th and Villarreal 9th in a 20-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (82%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans — 81%
Ligue 1 · 2:45 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Paris Saint Germain's last 5 games and 5 of Le Mans's last 5. Their last 3 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Paris Saint Germain sit 6th and Le Mans 10th in a 18-team table. The bookmakers (83%) are keener than our model alone (78%).
Barcelona v Getafe — 80%
La Liga · 12:30 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of Barcelona's last 5 games and 3 of Getafe's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Barcelona sit 1st and Getafe 12th in a 20-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (79%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Barracas Central v Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina, 2:45 PM ET) — 53%. In recent matches, Barracas Central have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Huracan 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Barracas Central sit 8th and Huracan 5th in a 15-team table. Our model (51%) and the bookmakers (54%) agree.
- Tigre v Banfield (Liga Profesional Argentina, 6:15 PM ET) — 60%. In recent matches, Tigre have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Banfield 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Tigre sit 11th and Banfield 13th in a 15-team table. The bookmakers (62%) are keener than our model alone (56%).
- Central Cordoba de Santiago v Estudiantes L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina, 4:00 PM ET) — 60%. In recent matches, Central Cordoba de Santiago have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Estudiantes L.P. 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Central Cordoba de Santiago sit 14th and Estudiantes L.P. 9th in a 15-team table. Our model (61%) and the bookmakers (59%) agree.
- Shrewsbury v Exeter City (League Two, 10:00 AM ET) — 65%. In recent matches, Shrewsbury have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Exeter City 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Shrewsbury sit 14th and Exeter City 20th in a 24-team table. Our model (64%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Vasco DA Gama v Remo — model 59%, market 73%.
- Zulte Waregem v Gent — model 78%, market 66%.
- Huddersfield v Sheffield Wednesday — model 62%, market 73%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova v Grobiņa (9:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 81% | 1.36 |
| FC Minsk v Torpedo Zhodino (6:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 85% | 1.44 |
| Fleetwood Town v Walsall (10:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 81% | 1.44 |
| Livingston v Partick (10:00 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 79% | 1.42 |
| ÍF II v TB (8:00 AM ET) | Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 1.4 |
| Casa Pia v Santa Clara (10:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.47 |
| Stevenage v Wigan (10:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.4 |
| Aberystwyth Town v Caerau (Ely) (9:30 AM ET) | Home or draw | 78% | 1.4 |
| Kozakken Boys v Spakenburg (9:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 79% | 1.5 |
| West Brom v Birmingham (7:30 AM ET) | Home or draw | 79% | 1.45 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Rangers to win — Rangers v Kilmarnock (10:00 AM ET).
- Linfield to win — Linfield v Bangor (10:00 AM ET).
- Kayserispor to win — Kayserispor v Manisa F.K. (12:00 PM ET).
- AEK Athens FC to win — AEK Athens FC v OFI (12:30 PM ET).
- Borac Banja Luka to win — Borac Banja Luka v BSK Banja Luka (12:30 PM ET).
- Riga to win — Tukums v Riga (7:00 AM ET).
- West Brom to score — West Brom v Birmingham (7:30 AM ET), model 86%.
- Arzignano Valchiampo to score — Arzignano Valchiampo v Juventus U23 (11:30 AM ET), model 84%.
- Ipswich to score — Ipswich v Fulham (10:00 AM ET), model 84%.
- Vanløse to score — Vanløse v Holbæk B&I (8:00 AM ET), model 84%.
- AFC Amsterdam to score — AFC Amsterdam v Hoek (9:15 AM ET), model 84%.
- Ferroviária to score — Ferroviária v Inter De Limeira (4:00 PM ET), model 83%.
- Metalac GM to score — Metalac GM v Teleoptik (8:00 AM ET), model 84%.
- Edinburgh City to score — Edinburgh City v Spartans (10:00 AM ET), model 83%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.