Here are The Soccer Expert model's predictions for Friday, October 9: first-half goal ratings for 462 fixtures, the games where an early goal looks most likely, and the published picks it likes best.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon Citizen v Jeonbuk Motors 1:00 AM | K League 1 | 65% | 57% | 71% |
| Gangwon FC v Bucheon FC 1995 3:30 AM | K League 1 | 64% | 63% | 65% |
| Incheon United v Pohang Steelers 3:30 AM | K League 1 | 59% | 57% | 61% |
| Kashima v Gamba Osaka 6:00 AM | J1 League | 72% | 69% | 73% |
| Kashiwa Reysol v Vissel Kobe 6:00 AM | J1 League | 67% | 64% | 69% |
| Al Kholood v Al-Qadisiyah FC 9:50 AM | Pro League | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| Al-Fateh v Al-Ahli Jeddah 10:55 AM | Pro League | 78% | 77% | 78% |
| Wieczysta Kraków v Wisla Plock 12:00 PM | Ekstraklasa | 72% | 71% | 72% |
| Eintracht Braunschweig v Holstein Kiel 12:30 PM | 2. Bundesliga | 74% | 73% | 75% |
| FC Heidenheim v FC Kaiserslautern 12:30 PM | 2. Bundesliga | 73% | 72% | 73% |
| IFK Goteborg v Vasteras SK FK 1:00 PM | Allsvenskan | 72% | 70% | 73% |
| Brann v Viking 1:00 PM | Eliteserien | 78% | 81% | 77% |
| FC Nordsjaelland v Odense 1:00 PM | Superliga | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa 1:00 PM | Süper Lig | 76% | 75% | 77% |
| Aldosivi v Sarmiento Junin 1:30 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 65% | 71% | 61% |
| Moreirense v GIL Vicente 1:45 PM | Primeira Liga | 62% | 58% | 65% |
| PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen 2:00 PM | Eredivisie | 85% | 84% | 86% |
| Dunkerque v Annecy 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 67% | 60% | 71% |
| Montpellier v Grenoble 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 67% | 68% | 66% |
| Nancy v Guingamp 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 66% | 60% | 71% |
| PAU v Laval 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 67% | 64% | 69% |
| Sochaux v Boulogne 2:00 PM | Ligue 2 | 62% | 61% | 62% |
| Al-Nassr v Al Diriyah 2:00 PM | Pro League | 77% | 76% | 77% |
| Raków Częstochowa v GKS Katowice 2:30 PM | Ekstraklasa | 73% | 69% | 75% |
| Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen 2:30 PM | Bundesliga | 77% | 75% | 78% |
| Avellino v Sampdoria 2:30 PM | Serie B | 68% | 69% | 66% |
| Lens v Lyon 2:45 PM | Ligue 1 | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| SK Beveren v Lommel United 2:45 PM | Jupiler Pro League | 70% | 67% | 72% |
| West Ham v QPR 3:00 PM | Championship | 75% | 74% | 75% |
| Malaga v Espanyol 3:00 PM | La Liga | 71% | 80% | 65% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen — 85%
Eredivisie · 2:00 PM ET. In recent matches, PSV Eindhoven have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Heerenveen 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. PSV Eindhoven sit 3rd and Heerenveen 10th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (84%) and the bookmakers (86%) agree.
Brann v Viking — 78%
Eliteserien · 1:00 PM ET. Brann games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Viking games in 3 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Brann sit 7th and Viking 1st in a 16-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
Al-Fateh v Al-Ahli Jeddah — 78%
Pro League · 10:55 AM ET. In recent matches, Al-Fateh have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Al-Ahli Jeddah 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Al-Fateh sit 15th and Al-Ahli Jeddah 6th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — 77%
Bundesliga · 2:30 PM ET. In recent matches, Borussia Dortmund have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Werder Bremen 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Borussia Dortmund sit 1st and Werder Bremen 8th in a 18-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (75%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
FC Nordsjaelland v Odense — 77%
Superliga · 1:00 PM ET. FC Nordsjaelland games have had a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5, and Odense games in 5 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. FC Nordsjaelland sit 4th and Odense 9th in a 12-team table. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Instituto Cordoba v Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina, 6:30 PM ET) — 59%. In recent matches, Instituto Cordoba have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Boca Juniors 3 times in 5. Their last 3 meetings produced a first-half goal 1 time. Instituto Cordoba sit 1st and Boca Juniors 4th in a 15-team table. Our model (58%) and the bookmakers (59%) agree.
- Incheon United v Pohang Steelers (K League 1, 3:30 AM ET) — 59%. In recent matches, Incheon United have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Pohang Steelers 2 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Incheon United sit 8th and Pohang Steelers 7th in a 12-team table. Our model (57%) and the bookmakers (61%) agree.
- Gimnasia L.P. v Atletico Tucuman (Liga Profesional Argentina, 5:00 PM ET) — 60%. In recent matches, Gimnasia L.P. have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Atletico Tucuman 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Gimnasia L.P. sit 6th and Atletico Tucuman 10th in a 15-team table. The bookmakers (62%) are keener than our model alone (56%).
- Moreirense v GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga, 1:45 PM ET) — 62%. In recent matches, Moreirense have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, GIL Vicente 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Moreirense sit 12th and GIL Vicente 9th in a 18-team table. The bookmakers (65%) are keener than our model alone (58%).
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Malaga v Espanyol — model 80%, market 65%.
- Daejeon Citizen v Jeonbuk Motors — model 57%, market 71%.
- Nancy v Guingamp — model 60%, market 71%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad v Leones del Norte (2:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 82% | 1.42 |
| Buxoro v Andijan (10:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.36 |
| Malaga v Espanyol (3:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 76% | 1.37 |
| Alianza Valledupar v Águilas Doradas (7:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.38 |
| Sundby v Ishøj (1:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 76% | 1.36 |
| Aldosivi v Sarmiento Junin (1:30 PM ET) | Either team wins | 75% | 1.4 |
| SC Kriens v FC WIL 1900 (1:30 PM ET) | Home or draw | 76% | 1.42 |
| SJK v Lahti (11:00 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.45 |
| Moreirense v GIL Vicente (1:45 PM ET) | Either team wins | 72% | 1.36 |
| Gangwon FC v Bucheon FC 1995 (3:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.38 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Cambrian & Clydach to win — Cambrian & Clydach v Ammanford AFC (2:45 PM ET).
- CSM Targu Jiu to win — CSM Targu Jiu v Unirea Bascov (12:00 PM ET).
- Tabor Sežana to win — Tabor Sežana v Rudar (11:30 AM ET).
- The New Saints to win — Holywell v The New Saints (2:45 PM ET).
- Slavia Praha to win — Zlin v Slavia Praha (12:00 PM ET).
- Cardiff MET to win — Cardiff MET v Trefelin (2:45 PM ET).
- Naft to score — Naft v Diyala (12:45 PM ET), model 84%.
- Avellino to score — Avellino v Sampdoria (2:30 PM ET), model 83%.
- Neftchi Baku to score — Neftchi Baku v Sabah FA (11:30 AM ET), model 82%.
- Dimona to score — Dimona v Hapoel Sderot (6:35 AM ET), model 81%.
- El Entag EL Harby to score — El Entag EL Harby v La Viena FC (8:30 AM ET), model 82%.
- Santo André U20 to score — Santo André U20 v Juventus U20 (2:00 PM ET), model 81%.
- Sivasspor to score — Sivasspor v Pendikspor (10:00 AM ET), model 79%.
- Gimnasia L.P. to score — Gimnasia L.P. v Atletico Tucuman (5:00 PM ET), model 76%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.