Here are The Soccer Expert model's predictions for Thursday, October 8: first-half goal ratings for 131 fixtures, the games where an early goal looks most likely, and the published picks it likes best.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos v Flamengo 6:30 PM | Serie A | 69% | 67% | 71% |
| Atletico Paranaense v Atletico-MG 7:00 PM | Serie A | 65% | 62% | 66% |
| Fluminense v Coritiba 8:30 PM | Serie A | 65% | 65% | – |
| Palmeiras v Bahia 8:30 PM | Serie A | 65% | 65% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Santos v Flamengo — 69%
Serie A · 6:30 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 4 of Santos's last 5 games and 2 of Flamengo's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Santos sit 8th and Flamengo 1st in a 20-team table. Our model (67%) and the bookmakers (71%) agree.
Atletico Paranaense v Atletico-MG — 65%
Serie A · 7:00 PM ET. Recent form backs it up: a first-half goal in 5 of Atletico Paranaense's last 5 games and 4 of Atletico-MG's last 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd and Atletico-MG 7th in a 20-team table. Our model (62%) and the bookmakers (66%) agree.
Aral v Qiziriq — 80%
Pro League A · 9:00 AM ET. Aral games have had a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5, and Qiziriq games in 5 of 5. Aral sit 1st and Qiziriq 14th in a 14-team table — a big gap in points per game, the kind of mismatch that tends to bring early goals. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (81%) agree.
Al Ain v Al-Ittihad Kalba — 79%
League Cup · 9:10 AM ET. Al Ain games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Al-Ittihad Kalba games in 3 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (80%) agree.
Johor Darul Takzim FC v Svay Rieng — 78%
ASEAN Club Championship · 8:00 AM ET. In recent matches, Johor Darul Takzim FC have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Svay Rieng 4 times in 4. Our model (78%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Atletico Paranaense v Atletico-MG — model 62%, market 66%.
- Santos v Flamengo — model 67%, market 71%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bokelj v Petrovac (12:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 82% | 1.45 |
| CFR 1907 Cluj v Universitatea Cluj (1:30 PM ET) | Home or draw | 79% | 1.44 |
| Vänersborgs FK v Kumla (1:30 PM ET) | Home or draw | 81% | 1.44 |
| HJK Helsinki v VPS (11:00 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.47 |
| Depor FC v Real Cartagena (4:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.4 |
| Ind. Juniors v 9 de Octubre (1:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 70% | 1.36 |
| Santos v Flamengo (6:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.44 |
| Mega Sport v Dayrout (8:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.44 |
| Tersana v Kahraba Ismailia (8:30 AM ET) | Either team wins | 70% | 1.44 |
| Atletico Nacional v Deportes Tolima (7:05 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.4 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Gazalkent to win — Gazalkent v Pakhtakor II (9:00 AM ET).
- Lanús Res. to win — Lanús Res. v Central Córdoba SdE Res. (2:00 PM ET).
- Aral to win — Aral v Qiziriq (9:00 AM ET).
- Shakhter Karagandy to win — Shakhter Karagandy v Akademiya Ontustik (6:00 AM ET).
- Veres Rivne U19 to score — Veres Rivne U19 v LNZ Cherkasy U19 (6:00 AM ET), model 76%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.