Our model has rated all 228 matches on Wednesday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bragantino v Mirassol 6:30 PM | Serie A | 67% | 62% | 71% |
| Internacional v Corinthians 6:30 PM | Serie A | 64% | 64% | 65% |
| Remo v Gremio 6:30 PM | Serie A | 67% | 63% | 69% |
| Vitoria v Chapecoense-sc 7:00 PM | Serie A | 67% | 64% | 69% |
| Botafogo v Vasco DA Gama 7:30 PM | Serie A | 65% | 57% | 71% |
| Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo 8:30 PM | Serie A | 61% | 61% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Bragantino v Mirassol — 67%
Serie A · 6:30 PM ET. Bragantino games have had a first-half goal in 5 of their last 5, and Mirassol games in 4 of 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Bragantino sit 11th and Mirassol 15th in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (71%) are keener than our model alone (62%).
Vitoria v Chapecoense-sc — 67%
Serie A · 7:00 PM ET. In recent matches, Vitoria have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Chapecoense-sc 5 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Vitoria sit 13th and Chapecoense-sc 20th in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (69%) are keener than our model alone (64%).
Remo v Gremio — 67%
Serie A · 6:30 PM ET. In recent matches, Remo have seen a goal before the break 2 times in 5, Gremio 3 times in 5. Remo sit 19th and Gremio 17th in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (69%) are keener than our model alone (63%).
Botafogo v Vasco DA Gama — 65%
Serie A · 7:30 PM ET. In recent matches, Botafogo have seen a goal before the break 4 times in 5, Vasco DA Gama 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Botafogo sit 12th and Vasco DA Gama 16th in a 20-team table. The bookmakers (71%) are keener than our model alone (57%).
Internacional v Corinthians — 64%
Serie A · 6:30 PM ET. In recent matches, Internacional have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Corinthians 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Internacional sit 18th and Corinthians 14th in a 20-team table. Our model (64%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Botafogo v Vasco DA Gama — model 57%, market 71%.
- Bragantino v Mirassol — model 62%, market 71%.
- Remo v Gremio — model 63%, market 69%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR v Botafogo SP (6:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.4 |
| Remo v Gremio (6:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.36 |
| FC Cartagena v Real Murcia (2:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.4 |
| Gnistan v Inter Turku (12:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.42 |
| Bragantino v Mirassol (6:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.44 |
| Vitoria v Chapecoense-sc (7:00 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 |
| Vila Nova v Cuiaba (7:30 PM ET) | Either team wins | 74% | 1.4 |
| Botafogo v Vasco DA Gama (7:30 PM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.44 |
| Cerrito v Wanderers (2:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.4 |
| Tai'an Tiankuang v Shangyu Pterosaur (4:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.37 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win — Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Iwaki (5:30 AM ET).
- Forge to win — Forge v Pacific FC (7:00 PM ET).
- Neftchi to win — Neftchi v Xorazm (10:00 AM ET).
- Tai'an Tiankuang to win — Tai'an Tiankuang v Shangyu Pterosaur (4:00 AM ET).
- Operario-PR to score — Operario-PR v Botafogo SP (6:30 PM ET), model 83%.
- Shimizu S-pulse to score — Shimizu S-pulse v V-varen Nagasaki (6:00 AM ET), model 84%.
- Academia Cantolao to score — Academia Cantolao v Santos (11:45 AM ET), model 82%.
- Avai to score — Avai v Londrina (6:30 PM ET), model 76%.
- Vila Nova to score — Vila Nova v Cuiaba (7:30 PM ET), model 79%.
- Avispa Fukuoka to score — Avispa Fukuoka v Yokohama FC (5:30 AM ET), model 79%.
- FC Cartagena to score — FC Cartagena v Real Murcia (2:30 PM ET), model 76%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.