Our model has rated all 187 matches on Tuesday's card for a goal before half-time. Below are the headline games, the strongest first-half goal spots, the matches to avoid and the best picks it has published.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea v Uzbekistan 7:00 AM | Friendlies | 71% | 73% | 69% |
| China v Tajikistan 7:35 AM | Friendlies | 69% | 74% | 65% |
| Kazakhstan v Faroe Islands 10:00 AM | UEFA Nations League | 66% | 70% | 61% |
| India v Uruguay 10:00 AM | Friendlies | 80% | 77% | 83% |
| Russia v Nigeria 12:00 PM | Friendlies | 70% | 75% | 66% |
| Jordan v Venezuela 1:00 PM | Friendlies | 67% | 72% | 62% |
| Algeria v Niger 1:00 PM | Friendlies | 75% | 76% | 74% |
| Croatia v Spain 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 79% | 82% | 77% |
| England v Czechia 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 80% | 81% | 79% |
| Albania v San Marino 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 80% | 77% | 83% |
| Belarus v Finland 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 66% | 70% | 62% |
| Moldova v Slovakia 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 72% | 72% | 71% |
| Estonia v Iceland 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 68% | 67% | 69% |
| Luxembourg v Bulgaria 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 63% | 65% | 61% |
| Switzerland v FYR Macedonia 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 80% | 81% | 78% |
| Scotland v Slovenia 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 63% | 61% | 65% |
| Atherton Collieries v Trafford 2:45 PM | FA Cup | 69% | 69% | – |
| Halesowen Town v Stafford Rangers 2:45 PM | FA Cup | 67% | 67% | – |
| Scarborough Athletic v Macclesfield 2:45 PM | FA Cup | 69% | 71% | 67% |
| Spalding United v Bury Town 2:45 PM | FA Cup | 72% | 74% | 70% |
| Wingate & Finchley v Bedford Town 2:45 PM | FA Cup | 73% | 75% | 71% |
| Angola v Malawi 3:00 PM | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 65% | 68% | 62% |
| Montserrat v Turks and Caicos Islands 4:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 77% | 77% | – |
| Saint Martin v Bahamas 4:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 85% | 85% | – |
| St. Vincent / Grenadines v Sint Maarten 5:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 80% | 85% | 75% |
| Antigua and Barbuda v Aruba 7:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 72% | 77% | 66% |
| Argentina v Benin 7:00 PM | Friendlies | 82% | 76% | 88% |
| Colombia v Peru 7:45 PM | Friendlies | 62% | 60% | 65% |
| USA v Canada 8:00 PM | Friendlies | 73% | 73% | – |
| Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps 8:30 PM | Major League Soccer | 75% | 75% | – |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Argentina v Benin — 82%
Friendlies · 7:00 PM ET. The bookmakers (88%) are keener than our model alone (76%).
England v Czechia — 80%
UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (79%) agree.
Albania v San Marino — 80%
UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET. Their last 3 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. The bookmakers (83%) are keener than our model alone (77%).
St. Vincent / Grenadines v Sint Maarten — 80%
CONCACAF Nations League · 5:00 PM ET. Our model (85%) is keener than the bookmakers (75%).
Switzerland v FYR Macedonia — 80%
UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET. Our model (81%) and the bookmakers (78%) agree.
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Colombia v Peru (Friendlies, 7:45 PM ET) — 62%. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 2 times. Our model (60%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
- Scotland v Slovenia (UEFA Nations League, 2:45 PM ET) — 63%. Their last 3 meetings produced a first-half goal 1 time. Our model (61%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
- Luxembourg v Bulgaria (UEFA Nations League, 2:45 PM ET) — 63%. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Our model (65%) and the bookmakers (61%) agree.
- Angola v Malawi (Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, 3:00 PM ET) — 65%. Our model (68%) is keener than the bookmakers (62%).
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Argentina v Benin — model 76%, market 88%.
- Antigua and Barbuda v Aruba — model 77%, market 66%.
- St. Vincent / Grenadines v Sint Maarten — model 85%, market 75%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skjetten v Kongsvinger II (12:00 PM ET) | Home win | 80% | 1.42 |
| Olimpia v Nacional Asuncion (6:15 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.39 |
| Hebei Kungfu v Dalian Huayi (7:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.36 |
| Grimsby v Burton Albion (2:00 PM ET) | Home or draw | 77% | 1.47 |
| Goias v Athletic Club (7:30 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.43 |
| Changchun Xidu v Guangzhou Dandelion (3:00 AM ET) | Home or draw | 73% | 1.4 |
| Gimnasia La Plata Res. v Rosario Central Res. (2:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.38 |
| Newell's Old Boys Res. v Estudiantes La Plata Res (2:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.4 |
| Changchun Xidu v Guangzhou Dandelion (3:00 AM ET) | Either team wins | 70% | 1.4 |
| Bilje v Dekani (10:00 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.37 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- Pontypridd Town to win — Pontypridd Town v Llantwit Major (2:30 PM ET).
- Skjetten to win — Skjetten v Kongsvinger II (12:00 PM ET).
- Sportivo Ameliano to score — Sportivo Ameliano v Rubio NU (4:00 PM ET), model 83%.
- Crawley Town to score — Crawley Town v Bromley (2:45 PM ET), model 79%.
- Hebei Kungfu to score — Hebei Kungfu v Dalian Huayi (7:30 AM ET), model 81%.
- Port Vale to score — Port Vale v Mansfield Town (2:00 PM ET), model 78%.
- Stevenage to score — Stevenage v Leicester (2:00 PM ET), model 78%.
- Wingate & Finchley to score — Wingate & Finchley v Bedford Town (2:45 PM ET), model 78%.
- Fleetwood Town to score — Fleetwood Town v Barnsley (2:00 PM ET), model 77%.
- Accrington ST to score — Accrington ST v Salford City (2:00 PM ET), model 76%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.