Here are The Soccer Expert model's predictions for Monday, October 5: first-half goal ratings for 100 fixtures, the games where an early goal looks most likely, and the published picks it likes best.
How to read the ratings
Each number is the chance of at least one goal before half-time. The model builds it from both teams' first-half scoring and conceding, the competition's own scoring rate, head-to-head history and the gap between the sides in the league table, then blends in the bookmakers' view where they price the line. As a guide, 78%+ is a strong spot, 70–77% is solid, and the low 60s are games where a goalless first half is a real possibility. All times are Eastern.
Headline matches
| Match | Competition | 1H goal | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uganda v Congo DR 9:00 AM | Friendlies | 67% | 71% | 64% |
| Mauritius v Sri Lanka 11:00 AM | Friendlies | 73% | 76% | 71% |
| Cyprus v Latvia 12:00 PM | UEFA Nations League | 67% | 69% | 66% |
| Cordoba v Tenerife 2:30 PM | Segunda División | 70% | 72% | 69% |
| France v Belgium 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 72% | 65% | 77% |
| Italy v Türkiye 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 74% | 73% | 75% |
| Ukraine v Hungary 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 65% | 64% | 65% |
| Northern Ireland v Georgia 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 65% | 73% | 59% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina v Poland 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 70% | 71% | 69% |
| Romania v Sweden 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 77% | 82% | 73% |
| Montenegro v Armenia 2:45 PM | UEFA Nations League | 75% | 81% | 71% |
| Liechtenstein v Gibraltar 2:45 PM | Friendlies | 63% | 68% | 59% |
| Guadeloupe v St. Lucia 3:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 74% | 77% | 72% |
| Deportivo Riestra v Central Cordoba de Santiago 3:45 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 57% | 55% | 59% |
| Cuba v St. Kitts and Nevis 5:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| Estudiantes L.P. v Gimnasia M. 6:00 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 65% | 64% | 65% |
| Velez Sarsfield v Platense 6:00 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 58% | 61% | 56% |
| Martinique v El Salvador 6:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 70% | 73% | 69% |
| Bermuda v Barbados 8:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 80% | 85% | 77% |
| Grenada v Bonaire 8:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 75% | 80% | 71% |
| Guatemala v Suriname 8:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 72% | 76% | 69% |
| Banfield v Rosario Central 8:15 PM | Liga Profesional Argentina | 64% | 64% | 65% |
| Honduras v Jamaica 10:00 PM | CONCACAF Nations League | 69% | 75% | 65% |
Strongest first-half goal spots
Bermuda v Barbados — 80%
CONCACAF Nations League · 8:00 PM ET. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Our model (85%) is keener than the bookmakers (77%).
Cuba v St. Kitts and Nevis — 77%
CONCACAF Nations League · 5:00 PM ET. Their last 3 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Our model (77%) and the bookmakers (77%) agree.
Romania v Sweden — 77%
UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Our model (82%) is keener than the bookmakers (73%).
Montenegro v Armenia — 75%
UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 5 times. Our model (81%) is keener than the bookmakers (71%).
Grenada v Bonaire — 75%
CONCACAF Nations League · 8:00 PM ET. Our model (80%) is keener than the bookmakers (71%).
A rating near 80% still means roughly one game in five stays goalless until half-time — these are strong spots, not certainties.
Games to avoid for an early goal
- Deportivo Riestra v Central Cordoba de Santiago (Liga Profesional Argentina, 3:45 PM ET) — 57%. In recent matches, Deportivo Riestra have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Central Cordoba de Santiago 3 times in 5. Their last 4 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Deportivo Riestra sit 12th and Central Cordoba de Santiago 14th in a 15-team table. Our model (55%) and the bookmakers (59%) agree.
- Velez Sarsfield v Platense (Liga Profesional Argentina, 6:00 PM ET) — 58%. In recent matches, Velez Sarsfield have seen a goal before the break 3 times in 5, Platense 4 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 3 times. Velez Sarsfield sit 4th and Platense 13th in a 15-team table. Our model (61%) is keener than the bookmakers (56%).
- Liechtenstein v Gibraltar (Friendlies, 2:45 PM ET) — 63%. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Our model (68%) is keener than the bookmakers (59%).
- Banfield v Rosario Central (Liga Profesional Argentina, 8:15 PM ET) — 64%. In recent matches, Banfield have seen a goal before the break 5 times in 5, Rosario Central 3 times in 5. Their last 5 meetings produced a first-half goal 4 times. Banfield sit 13th and Rosario Central 4th in a 15-team table. Our model (64%) and the bookmakers (65%) agree.
Where the model and bookmakers disagree
These are the games where our numbers and the market are furthest apart — worth a closer look either way.
- Northern Ireland v Georgia — model 73%, market 59%.
- France v Belgium — model 65%, market 77%.
- Honduras v Jamaica — model 75%, market 65%.
Top Predictions
The strongest selections the model has published across every market. Prices are the best available when the pick was made — always check the current price.
| Match | Pick | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAT Moreno v Deportivo Metalurgico (12:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.44 |
| Napredak v Loznica (10:00 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.38 |
| Velez Sarsfield v Platense (6:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 74% | 1.36 |
| Nestos Chrisoupolis v Marko (8:00 AM ET) | Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.46 |
| Yarud Mariupol' v Nyva Ternopil (8:30 AM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.42 |
| Sporting San Miguelito v Union Cocle (9:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.38 |
| El Porvenir v Canuelas (2:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 73% | 1.4 |
| Estudiantes L.P. v Gimnasia M. (6:00 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.44 |
| Banfield v Rosario Central (8:15 PM ET) | Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 |
| Deportivo Paraguayo v Mercedes (2:00 PM ET) | Either team wins | 71% | 1.4 |
Top-tier match winners and team goals
The model's top tiers have the best record on our public results page.
- TSC Backa Topola to win — TSC Backa Topola v Grafičar (12:00 PM ET).
- Velez Sarsfield to score — Velez Sarsfield v Platense (6:00 PM ET), model 83%.
Catch up on today's results and headlines in our news and results roundup. New to live betting? Read what we do when a game is 0-0 at 20 minutes.
Ratings generated automatically by The Soccer Expert model and may change with team news and prices. Picks are opinions for information and entertainment, not guarantees. 21+. Please bet responsibly.