Every match on the dashboard carries a first-half goal rating — a percentage chance of at least one goal before half-time. Here's what goes into it.
1. Expected first-half goals for each side
We start with how often each team scores and concedes in first halves, at home and away, over recent matches. Recent games count more than older ones. That gives an expected number of first-half goals for each side.
2. The league's own rhythm
Leagues differ. Some are open and fast; others are tight and cagey early on. Each league's first-half scoring rate pulls the numbers towards what that competition actually produces.
3. Head-to-head
Some pairings are consistently open or consistently tight. Where the two teams have enough history, the head-to-head nudges the rating.
4. The standings gap
Mismatches in the league table add early goals. (We wrote about it here.)
5. From expected goals to a probability
The expected first-half goals for both sides become the chance of at least one goal. The model is checked against thousands of finished matches so that a 75% rating really does mean roughly three in four.
Then it goes live
The rating is where it starts. During the first half the model watches the strongest matches and flags Live Hot Picks when the game backs up the numbers.